Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Sep-29-2023

Sep 29, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:23 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.864

$2.945

-2.75%

-$0.081

31,849

 

 

WTI

$92.35

$91.71

0.70%

$0.64

99,437

 

 

Brent

$96.05

$95.38

0.70%

$0.67

213

 

 

ULSD

$3.393

$3.318

2.27%

$0.075

625

 

 

RBOB

$2.491

$2.505

-0.55%

-$0.014

640

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.69

$3.67

0.55%

$0.02

Nov-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$23.10

$23.13

-0.12%

-$0.03

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Oct-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

09/22/23

630

-11

-134

09/23/22

 

 

Canada

09/22/23

190

0

-25

09/23/22

 

 

International

August

952

-9

92

August

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 9/19/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

98,306

97,845

97,894

-49

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

85,475

84,802

84,874

-72

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

428,114

404,674

416,711

-12,037

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

294,409

242,749

222,686

20,063

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

136,942

127,542

128,244

-702

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,498

37,076

37,018

58

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

151,230

150,608

150,984

-376

 

 

RBOB

386,928

360,143

372,133

-11,990

 

 

HSC Basis

617,352

612,328

609,283

3,045

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

09/28/18

 

 

 

9/22/23

9/15/23

Net Change

% Change

9/23/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

821

793

28

3.53%

721

13.87%

792

3.64%

 

 

Midwest

962

931

31

3.33%

879

9.44%

931

3.33%

 

 

Mountain

234

228

6

2.63%

176

32.95%

197

18.90%

 

 

Pacific

271

263

8

3.04%

243

11.52%

271

0.00%

 

 

South

1,071

1,053

18

1.71%

958

11.80%

1,027

4.32%

 

 

    Salt

250

242

8

3.31%

204

22.55%

240

3.99%

 

 

    Non_Salt

821

811

10

1.23%

754

8.89%

786

4.45%

 

 

Total

3,359

3,269

90

2.75%

2,977

12.83%

3,217

4.41%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Oct-23

$43.62

$43.63

-0.04%

-$0.02

$42.17

3.44%

$66.34

-34.25%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Oct-23

$56.76

$66.84

-15.09%

-$10.09

$51.38

10.46%

$54.71

3.73%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Oct-23

$42.69

$43.76

-2.46%

-$1.08

$65.89

-35.22%

$73.17

-41.66%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Oct-23

$45.77

$45.72

0.11%

$0.05

$47.56

-3.77%

$68.00

-32.69%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Oct-23

$32.78

$33.52

-2.18%

-$0.73

$36.63

-10.50%

$64.80

-49.40%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Oct-23

$72.39

$66.68

8.56%

$5.71

$75.89

-4.61%

$79.42

-8.85%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Oct-23

$31.35

$32.37

-3.14%

-$1.02

$36.45

-14.00%

$55.59

-43.61%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$2.945

$2.899

1.59%

$0.05

$3.18

-7.42%

$5.16

-42.93%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.400

-$0.405

-1.26%

$0.01

-$0.37

8.25%

-$0.37

9.56%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.239

-$0.272

14.03%

$0.03

-$0.16

46.06%

-$0.24

-2.33%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.919

-$0.933

-1.55%

$0.01

-$0.79

15.88%

-$1.57

-41.45%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.964

$1.023

-5.85%

-$0.06

$1.33

-27.36%

$5.18

-81.40%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$0.918

-$0.906

1.29%

-$0.01

-$0.69

33.20%

-$1.56

-41.20%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.224

$2.125

4.63%

$0.10

$2.51

-11.40%

$0.43

415.30%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Oct-23

$0.737

$0.744

-0.87%

-$0.01

$0.69

6.50%

$0.81

-9.25%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Oct-23

$0.734

$0.743

-1.21%

-$0.01

$0.69

5.95%

$0.81

-9.28%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Oct-23

$0.271

$0.272

-0.44%

$0.00

$0.27

-0.83%

$0.32

-15.67%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.699

$1.699

-0.03%

$0.00

$1.60

6.26%

$1.48

14.99%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Oct-23

$0.877

$0.889

-1.29%

-$0.01

$0.87

1.28%

$0.82

7.06%

 

 

Conway Propane

Oct-23

$0.707

$0.723

-2.20%

-$0.02

$0.70

0.32%

$0.83

-14.94%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Oct-23

$1.864

$1.885

-1.09%

-$0.02

$1.63

14.57%

$1.51

23.48%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$91.71

$93.68

-2.15%

-$1.97

$81.12

13.05%

$71.52

28.23%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$95.38

$96.55

-1.23%

-$1.17

$85.24

11.90%

$76.82

24.16%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$18.25

-$18.21

0.22%

-$0.04

-$19.85

-8.07%

-$17.50

4.27%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$90.56

$93.60

-3.35%

-$3.04

$82.64

9.58%

$73.32

23.52%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$87.23

$90.59

-3.86%

-$3.37

$80.31

8.62%

$69.76

25.04%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$90.15

$92.49

-2.60%

-$2.34

$81.11

11.14%

$69.71

29.31%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$93.38

$94.55

-1.25%

-$1.17

$83.24

12.18%

$73.91

26.35%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Oct-23

$3.33

$3.32

0.48%

$0.02

$3.07

8.43%

$2.77

20.08%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.49

$2.60

-4.30%

-$0.11

$2.56

-2.58%

$2.16

15.10%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Oct-23

$2.39

$2.50

-4.47%

-$0.11

$2.46

-2.69%

$2.07

15.84%

 

 

GC Jet

Oct-23

$3.13

$3.03

3.24%

$0.10

$2.93

6.84%

$2.92

7.13%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Oct-23

$2.24

$2.22

1.04%

$0.02

$2.14

4.96%

$2.03

10.38%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Oct-23

$932.53

$905.68

2.96%

$26.85

$850.99

9.58%

$770.52

21.03%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Oct-23

$122.17

$120.23

1.62%

$1.94

$112.96

8.16%

$101.48

20.39%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

59.21%

58.80%

0.70%

0.41%

64.56%

-8.29%

58.76%

0.77%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

74.67%

70.46%

5.98%

4.21%

77.59%

-3.76%

90.59%

-17.57%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

88.91%

90.06%

-1.28%

-1.15%

89.70%

-0.88%

75.32%

18.04%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

69.39%

67.48%

2.83%

1.91%

65.56%

5.84%

62.17%

11.61%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

57.93%

60.51%

-4.26%

-2.58%

57.99%

-0.10%

47.27%

22.55%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

158.74%

188.70%

-15.88%

-29.96%

119.87%

32.43%

48.64%

226.36%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

235.22%

343.57%

-31.54%

-108.35%

144.74%

62.51%

74.97%

213.75%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

9/28/23

9/27/23

% Change

Change

8/30/23

% Change

9/29/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 43.14

EUR 43.29

-0.35%

-EUR 0.15

EUR 48.16

-10.42%

EUR 179.92

-76.02%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 109.71

GBP 110.09

-0.35%

-GBP 0.38

GBP 119.77

-8.40%

GBP 468.06

-76.56%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 113.18

EUR 112.87

0.27%

EUR 0.31

EUR 129.97

-12.92%

EUR 550.08

-79.43%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 102.66

GBP 100.06

2.60%

GBP 2.60

GBP 118.13

-13.10%

GBP 331.93

-69.07%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 114.73

EUR 113.88

0.74%

EUR 0.84

EUR 143.00

-19.77%

EUR 538.76

-78.71%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 131.77

EUR 130.95

0.63%

EUR 0.82

EUR 145.11

-9.19%

EUR 398.43

-66.93%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$15.11

$15.07

0.26%

$0.04

$13.55

11.50%

$43.52

-65.28%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-1

-3

547

131

-104

31.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-9

-17

692

46

-163

7.00%

-19.00%

 

 

E N Central

8

-1

-26

638

-57

-187

-8.00%

-23.00%

 

 

W N Central

26

12

-19

988

82

-93

9.00%

-9.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

48

-7

-19

1,825

115

-124

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

E S Central

42

0

-25

1,524

70

-160

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

W S Central

100

27

-12

2,621

406

-31

18.00%

-1.00%

 

 

Mountain

29

-5

-7

1,148

-9

-148

-1.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Pacific

3

-24

-3

638

-5

-234

-1.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

28

-3

-15

1,195

78

-147

7.00%

-11.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09/23/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

34

-9

-3

74

-56

-5

-43.00%

-6.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

28

-2

13

47

-34

15

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

25

-9

5

99

-8

39

-7.00%

65.00%

 

 

W N Central

15

-23

-8

82

-51

24

-38.00%

41.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

7

0

4

9

-2

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

5

-5

2

9

-6

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

-3

0

1

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

27

-9

8

63

-75

19

-54.00%

47.00%

 

 

Pacific

18

1

6

36

-51

8

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

17

-4

4

44

-27

13

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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