Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Oct-10-2023

Oct 10, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:33 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.370

$3.376

-0.18%

-$0.006

37,701

 

 

WTI

$85.95

$86.38

-0.50%

-$0.43

109,729

 

 

Brent

$87.76

$88.15

-0.44%

-$0.39

8,319

 

 

ULSD

$3.013

$2.967

1.55%

$0.046

9,462

 

 

RBOB

$2.243

$2.238

0.23%

$0.005

5,940

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.55

$3.55

0.00%

$0.00

Dec-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$18.76

$17.72

5.86%

$1.04

Nov-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.69

$37.05

1.74%

$0.64

Nov-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/06/23

619

-4

-143

10/07/22

 

 

Canada

10/06/23

180

-11

-35

10/07/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

103,169

101,531

102,274

-743

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

88,998

87,746

88,125

-379

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

411,082

385,753

399,286

-13,533

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

272,634

223,274

198,439

24,835

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

121,793

113,864

114,385

-521

 

 

NYM Ethanol

35,486

34,941

35,035

-94

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

156,673

156,061

156,327

-266

 

 

RBOB

305,128

281,886

289,734

-7,848

 

 

HSC Basis

671,370

657,136

661,294

-4,158

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/05/18

 

 

 

9/29/23

9/22/23

Net Change

% Change

9/30/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

847

821

26

3.17%

756

12.04%

821

3.22%

 

 

Midwest

991

962

29

3.01%

916

8.19%

966

2.61%

 

 

Mountain

239

234

5

2.14%

184

29.89%

202

18.43%

 

 

Pacific

278

271

7

2.58%

247

12.55%

274

1.39%

 

 

South

1,090

1,071

19

1.77%

1,003

8.67%

1,057

3.08%

 

 

    Salt

259

250

9

3.60%

225

15.11%

254

1.97%

 

 

    Non_Salt

830

821

9

1.10%

778

6.68%

803

3.34%

 

 

Total

3,445

3,359

86

2.56%

3,106

10.91%

3,319

3.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Nov-23

$44.93

$44.27

1.49%

$0.66

$41.55

8.13%

$69.06

-34.95%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Nov-23

$41.21

$41.74

-1.26%

-$0.53

$37.04

11.28%

$53.07

-22.34%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Nov-23

$67.70

$70.27

-3.65%

-$2.57

$64.55

4.88%

$77.48

-12.62%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Nov-23

$46.60

$46.62

-0.05%

-$0.02

$44.21

5.40%

$70.09

-33.52%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Nov-23

$50.12

$51.48

-2.65%

-$1.36

$53.72

-6.70%

$111.20

-54.93%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Nov-23

$93.00

$96.68

-3.80%

-$3.68

$81.46

14.17%

$88.14

5.51%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Nov-23

$46.68

$48.11

-2.98%

-$1.43

$46.32

0.77%

$68.51

-31.87%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Nov-23

$3.376

$3.338

1.14%

$0.04

$2.94

14.95%

$5.48

-38.35%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Nov-23

-$0.423

-$0.391

8.22%

-$0.03

-$0.35

19.17%

-$0.41

2.52%

 

 

Chicago

Nov-23

-$0.236

-$0.178

-24.64%

-$0.06

-$0.19

21.38%

-$0.22

8.95%

 

 

Waha

Nov-23

-$0.870

-$0.878

-0.98%

$0.01

-$0.92

-5.74%

-$1.73

-49.63%

 

 

Algonquin

Nov-23

$0.660

$0.785

-15.91%

-$0.12

$1.35

-51.00%

$5.13

-87.14%

 

 

Aeco

Nov-23

-$1.202

-$1.191

0.89%

-$0.01

-$0.76

57.51%

-$1.66

-27.58%

 

 

Socal

Nov-23

$2.661

$2.885

-7.76%

-$0.22

$2.29

15.99%

$0.25

973.58%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Nov-23

$0.694

$0.686

1.10%

$0.01

$0.78

-10.62%

$0.87

-20.68%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Nov-23

$0.698

$0.686

1.65%

$0.01

$0.77

-9.41%

$0.87

-19.95%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Nov-23

$0.289

$0.293

-1.38%

$0.00

$0.28

4.49%

$0.32

-11.16%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.560

$1.538

1.48%

$0.02

$1.70

-8.29%

$1.61

-2.81%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Nov-23

$0.823

$0.805

2.16%

$0.02

$0.92

-10.73%

$0.88

-6.27%

 

 

Conway Propane

Nov-23

$0.683

$0.674

1.31%

$0.01

$0.79

-13.60%

$0.92

-25.58%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Nov-23

$1.709

$1.698

0.67%

$0.01

$1.74

-1.84%

$1.65

3.52%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Nov-23

$86.38

$82.79

4.16%

$3.59

$86.66

-0.32%

$78.45

10.11%

 

 

Brent

Nov-23

$88.90

$85.23

4.13%

$3.67

$90.64

-1.92%

$83.83

6.05%

 

 

WCS

Nov-23

-$19.97

-$20.50

-2.62%

$0.52

-$16.41

21.72%

-$16.98

17.62%

 

 

LLS

Nov-23

$86.12

$83.03

3.60%

$3.10

$87.75

-1.85%

$85.00

1.32%

 

 

Mars

Nov-23

$82.28

$79.19

3.76%

$3.10

$85.55

-3.82%

$80.61

2.08%

 

 

Sour

Nov-23

$84.23

$80.80

4.08%

$3.44

$86.82

-2.98%

$81.29

3.61%

 

 

ESPO

Nov-23

$86.90

$83.23

4.23%

$3.67

$88.64

-1.96%

$80.61

7.80%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Nov-23

$2.98

$2.91

2.37%

$0.07

$3.27

-8.93%

$3.05

-2.17%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.24

$2.19

2.01%

$0.04

$2.64

-15.30%

$2.25

-0.58%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Nov-23

$2.14

$2.09

2.10%

$0.04

$2.54

-15.90%

$2.15

-0.60%

 

 

GC Jet

Nov-23

$2.69

$2.63

2.28%

$0.06

$2.99

-9.94%

$2.70

-0.33%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Nov-23

$2.02

$2.02

0.30%

$0.01

$2.04

-0.74%

$2.12

-4.58%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Nov-23

$800.09

$793.04

0.89%

$7.05

$883.43

-9.43%

$790.98

1.15%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Nov-23

$109.66

$108.31

1.24%

$1.34

$116.41

-5.80%

$99.38

10.34%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Nov-23

59.91%

59.51%

0.67%

0.40%

66.13%

-9.41%

61.44%

-2.49%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Nov-23

82.28%

79.06%

4.07%

3.22%

76.51%

7.54%

86.73%

-5.13%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Nov-23

95.91%

96.51%

-0.62%

-0.60%

90.43%

6.06%

73.10%

31.20%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Nov-23

72.29%

72.02%

0.37%

0.27%

71.76%

0.74%

65.04%

11.15%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Nov-23

59.22%

58.61%

1.04%

0.61%

57.93%

2.23%

49.30%

20.12%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Nov-23

195.16%

189.86%

2.79%

5.30%

122.92%

58.77%

50.00%

290.32%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Nov-23

311.67%

200.52%

55.43%

111.15%

155.55%

100.37%

77.30%

303.20%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

10/9/23

10/6/23

% Change

Change

9/11/23

% Change

10/10/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Nov-23

EUR 43.12

EUR 38.05

13.32%

EUR 5.07

EUR 45.48

-5.19%

EUR 174.34

-75.27%

 

 

NBP

Nov-23

GBP 107.00

GBP 94.15

13.64%

GBP 12.84

GBP 113.14

-5.43%

GBP 425.67

-74.86%

 

 

German Base

Nov-23

EUR 109.04

EUR 95.79

13.84%

EUR 13.25

EUR 116.06

-6.04%

EUR 505.52

-78.43%

 

 

UK Base

Nov-23

GBP 95.91

GBP 88.60

8.25%

GBP 7.31

GBP 110.88

-13.50%

GBP 349.59

-72.56%

 

 

French Base

Nov-23

EUR 110.76

EUR 99.00

11.88%

EUR 11.76

EUR 123.84

-10.56%

EUR 534.77

-79.29%

 

 

Italian Base

Nov-23

EUR 134.28

EUR 117.40

14.38%

EUR 16.88

EUR 136.61

-1.71%

EUR 384.71

-65.10%

 

 

JKM LNG

Nov-23

$14.64

$13.73

6.57%

$0.90

$14.95

-2.09%

$41.47

-64.71%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

3

3

3

550

133

-101

32.00%

-16.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

6

3

6

697

43

-158

7.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

18

14

18

664

-41

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

29

23

27

1,054

133

-33

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

43

5

25

1,915

121

-86

7.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

35

12

33

1,611

102

-96

7.00%

-6.00%

 

 

W S Central

69

22

33

2,796

475

44

20.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

15

-7

-5

1,193

-13

-161

-1.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Pacific

23

8

-1

666

-12

-277

-2.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

28

9

16

1,254

93

-126

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/07/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

19

-59

-56

153

-115

-61

-43.00%

-29.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

18

-44

-56

103

-86

-54

-46.00%

-34.00%

 

 

E N Central

29

-36

-41

149

-72

-55

-33.00%

-27.00%

 

 

W N Central

39

-24

-11

132

-114

-33

-46.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

5

-17

-28

23

-24

-37

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

10

-18

-26

20

-41

-56

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-3

-3

5

-11

-7

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

53

-3

11

144

-95

39

-40.00%

37.00%

 

 

Pacific

25

-1

20

85

-49

47

-37.00%

124.00%

 

 

United States

20

-21

-21

84

-58

-23

-41.00%

-21.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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