Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Nov-02-2023

Nov 2, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:26 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.433

$3.494

-1.75%

-$0.061

29,310

 

 

WTI

$80.35

$80.44

-0.11%

-$0.09

88,716

 

 

Brent

$84.72

$87.42

-3.09%

-$2.70

10,538

 

 

ULSD

$2.999

$2.961

1.28%

$0.038

11,492

 

 

RBOB

$2.188

$2.185

0.13%

$0.003

7,659

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.59

$4.53

1.32%

$0.06

Jan-24

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$21.92

$21.52

1.84%

$0.40

Dec-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$44.46

$48.60

-8.52%

-$4.14

Dec-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

10/27/23

625

1

-143

10/28/22

 

 

Canada

10/27/23

196

-2

-16

10/28/22

 

 

International

Sept

940

-12

61

Sept

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 10/24/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

97,961

97,659

97,636

23

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

86,740

86,245

86,268

-23

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

419,497

395,200

407,590

-12,390

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

157,335

133,285

113,842

19,443

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

129,155

118,014

121,812

-3,798

 

 

NYM Ethanol

41,563

41,010

40,960

50

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

155,072

154,383

154,644

-261

 

 

RBOB

330,794

305,010

313,720

-8,710

 

 

HSC Basis

657,747

651,976

650,579

1,397

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$84.09

$94.91

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.62

$3.69

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.27

11.91

12.92

13.12

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.61

$3.23

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

11.62

13.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

42.00%

41.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

15.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

22.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

20.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

10/26/18

 

 

 

10/20/23

10/13/23

Net Change

% Change

10/21/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

908

896

12

1.34%

825

10.06%

879

3.28%

 

 

Midwest

1,075

1,050

25

2.38%

1,007

6.75%

1,046

2.79%

 

 

Mountain

252

248

4

1.61%

199

26.63%

208

20.92%

 

 

Pacific

283

280

3

1.07%

248

14.11%

277

2.31%

 

 

South

1,182

1,152

30

2.60%

1,116

5.91%

1,130

4.60%

 

 

    Salt

299

285

14

4.91%

277

7.94%

291

2.68%

 

 

    Non_Salt

883

868

15

1.73%

839

5.24%

839

5.24%

 

 

Total

3,700

3,626

74

2.04%

3,394

9.02%

3,540

4.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Dec-23

$51.79

$56.07

-7.64%

-$4.28

$52.34

-1.04%

$71.62

-27.68%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Dec-23

$47.15

$48.01

-1.79%

-$0.86

$48.19

-2.16%

$50.82

-7.23%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Dec-23

$93.12

$96.55

-3.55%

-$3.43

$94.48

-1.44%

$83.98

10.88%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Dec-23

$49.06

$53.10

-7.60%

-$4.04

$49.84

-1.56%

$72.12

-31.97%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Dec-23

$77.20

$79.66

-3.09%

-$2.46

$82.74

-6.70%

$143.92

-46.36%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Dec-23

$126.35

$144.11

-12.33%

-$17.77

$133.37

-5.27%

$113.33

11.49%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Dec-23

$60.94

$62.73

-2.85%

-$1.79

$66.57

-8.46%

$84.72

-28.07%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Dec-23

$3.494

$3.575

-2.27%

-$0.08

$3.32

5.24%

$5.59

-37.45%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Dec-23

-$0.276

-$0.237

16.49%

-$0.04

-$0.18

55.26%

-$0.27

2.71%

 

 

Chicago

Dec-23

$0.295

$0.339

14.87%

-$0.04

$0.26

14.46%

$0.12

138.83%

 

 

Waha

Dec-23

-$0.536

-$0.492

-8.96%

-$0.04

-$0.40

33.62%

-$1.28

-57.99%

 

 

Algonquin

Dec-23

$4.536

$5.315

-14.65%

-$0.78

$6.30

-28.05%

$14.67

-69.07%

 

 

Aeco

Dec-23

-$1.280

-$1.167

9.75%

-$0.11

-$0.94

35.74%

-$1.80

-29.05%

 

 

Socal

Dec-23

$4.897

$5.581

-12.26%

-$0.68

$4.83

1.42%

$1.48

231.09%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Dec-23

$0.670

$0.683

-1.84%

-$0.01

$0.71

-5.65%

$0.88

-23.45%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Dec-23

$0.675

$0.681

-0.93%

-$0.01

$0.71

-4.95%

$0.88

-23.72%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Dec-23

$0.258

$0.265

-2.83%

-$0.01

$0.27

-6.07%

$0.31

-15.91%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Dec-23

$1.500

$1.534

-2.22%

-$0.03

$1.56

-3.92%

$1.59

-5.80%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Dec-23

$0.861

$0.860

0.16%

$0.00

$0.85

1.44%

$0.93

-7.25%

 

 

Far East Propane

Dec-23

$7.189

$7.052

1.95%

$0.14

$6.53

10.10%

$5.93

21.23%

 

 

Saudi Propane

Dec-23

$5.976

$6.091

-1.89%

-$0.12

$5.80

2.96%

$5.50

8.62%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Dec-23

$80.44

$81.02

-0.72%

-$0.58

$82.55

-2.56%

$79.23

1.53%

 

 

Brent

Dec-23

$84.92

$85.31

-0.46%

-$0.39

$85.81

-1.03%

$85.03

-0.12%

 

 

WCS

Dec-23

-$26.20

-$25.03

4.46%

-$1.17

-$21.00

24.75%

-$22.08

18.66%

 

 

LLS

Dec-23

$84.27

$83.55

0.85%

$0.72

$82.82

1.76%

$81.00

4.03%

 

 

Mars

Dec-23

$81.21

$80.76

0.55%

$0.44

$79.27

2.44%

$75.67

7.32%

 

 

Sour

Dec-23

$80.29

$80.61

-0.39%

-$0.32

$81.07

-0.95%

$75.62

6.19%

 

 

ESPO

Dec-23

$82.92

$83.31

-0.47%

-$0.39

$83.81

-1.06%

$81.69

1.51%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Dec-23

$2.90

$2.93

-0.92%

-$0.03

$2.92

-0.68%

$2.88

0.52%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.19

$2.22

-1.26%

-$0.03

$2.16

1.48%

$2.28

-3.81%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Dec-23

$2.10

$2.12

-1.32%

-$0.03

$2.06

1.55%

$2.18

-3.99%

 

 

GC Jet

Dec-23

$2.89

$2.70

7.31%

$0.20

$2.67

8.35%

$2.59

11.83%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Dec-23

$1.79

$1.83

-2.19%

-$0.04

$1.88

-4.84%

$2.14

-16.40%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Dec-23

$800.00

$810.73

-1.32%

-$10.73

$797.43

0.32%

$812.61

-1.55%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Dec-23

$108.08

$107.84

0.22%

$0.24

$109.95

-1.70%

$103.07

4.85%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Dec-23

63.46%

57.58%

10.21%

5.88%

59.29%

7.03%

55.02%

15.34%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Dec-23

85.30%

63.56%

34.20%

21.74%

78.13%

9.18%

87.11%

-2.08%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Dec-23

70.57%

64.32%

9.72%

6.25%

62.47%

12.97%

59.85%

17.91%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Dec-23

65.50%

58.75%

11.49%

6.75%

62.69%

4.48%

58.00%

12.93%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Dec-23

67.28%

67.91%

-0.93%

-0.63%

65.10%

3.35%

54.84%

22.68%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Dec-23

289.07%

299.52%

-3.49%

-10.45%

113.56%

154.55%

63.07%

358.33%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Dec-23

296.98%

263.56%

12.68%

33.42%

192.48%

54.29%

82.36%

260.59%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Dec-23

EUR 48.89

EUR 48.10

1.65%

EUR 0.80

EUR 42.55

14.90%

EUR 128.00

-61.80%

 

 

NBP

Dec-23

GBP 125.48

GBP 124.46

0.82%

GBP 1.02

GBP 110.63

13.43%

GBP 329.07

-61.87%

 

 

German Base

Dec-23

EUR 98.03

EUR 99.84

-1.81%

-EUR 1.81

EUR 106.30

-7.78%

EUR 466.41

-78.98%

 

 

UK Base

Dec-23

GBP 101.02

GBP 107.63

-6.14%

-GBP 6.61

GBP 102.19

-1.14%

GBP 300.42

-66.37%

 

 

French Base

Dec-23

EUR 107.81

EUR 108.90

-1.00%

-EUR 1.09

EUR 113.96

-5.40%

EUR 571.17

-81.13%

 

 

Italian Base

Dec-23

EUR 139.57

EUR 142.80

-2.26%

-EUR 3.23

EUR 130.46

6.99%

EUR 289.89

-51.85%

 

 

JKM LNG

Dec-23

$17.50

$16.34

7.09%

$1.16

$14.20

23.23%

$30.60

-42.79%

 

 

 

 

Freight Forwards (WET & DRY)

 

OTCGH/EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

11/1/23

10/31/23

% Change

Change

10/4/23

% Change

11/2/22

% Change

 

 

TD3C FFA Middle East to China (WET)

Dec-23

$48.89

$48.10

1.65%

$0.80

$42.55

14.90%

$128.00

-61.80%

 

 

USGC-UK Continent Dirty (WET)

Dec-23

$125.48

$124.46

0.82%

$1.02

$110.63

13.43%

$329.07

-61.87%

 

 

TD20 West Africa to UK Continent (WET)

Dec-23

$98.03

$99.84

-1.81%

-$1.81

$106.30

-7.78%

$466.41

-78.98%

 

 

LPG FFA Middle East Gulf to East (WET)

Dec-23

$101.02

$107.63

-6.14%

-$6.61

$102.19

-1.14%

$300.42

-66.37%

 

 

TC5 FFA Arabian Gulf to Japan (WET)

Dec-23

$107.81

$108.90

-1.00%

-$1.09

$113.96

-5.40%

$571.17

-81.13%

 

 

Supramax Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$139.57

$142.80

-2.26%

-$3.23

$130.46

6.99%

$289.89

-51.85%

 

 

Capesize Timecharter (DRY)

Dec-23

$17.50

$16.34

7.09%

$1.16

$14.20

23.23%

$30.60

-42.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

1

1

1

551

134

-101

32.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

1

1

1

698

42

-157

6.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

0

664

-45

-162

-6.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

2

1

-1

1,057

130

-34

14.00%

-3.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

21

1

6

1,971

102

-87

5.00%

-4.00%

 

 

E S Central

14

9

13

1,627

90

-85

6.00%

-5.00%

 

 

W S Central

52

33

29

2,897

495

57

21.00%

2.00%

 

 

Mountain

8

2

6

1,243

6

-141

0.00%

-10.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

0

695

-3

-280

0.00%

-29.00%

 

 

United States

11

4

6

1,284

92

-123

8.00%

-9.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/28/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

-61

-13

387

-212

-92

-35.00%

-19.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

70

-41

-1

339

-135

-74

-28.00%

-18.00%

 

 

E N Central

71

-48

-5

416

-107

-102

-20.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W N Central

94

-28

2

402

-146

-93

-27.00%

-19.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

28

-21

-14

135

-30

-63

-18.00%

-32.00%

 

 

E S Central

22

-42

-28

145

-70

-121

-33.00%

-45.00%

 

 

W S Central

4

-26

-23

54

-22

-29

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

94

-8

-33

347

-147

7

-30.00%

2.00%

 

 

Pacific

65

10

-4

191

-76

58

-28.00%

44.00%

 

 

United States

54

-27

-11

254

-90

-51

-26.00%

-17.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol * Freight * Spreads – Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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