Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-28-2023

Jul 28, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:24 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.677

$2.492

7.42%

$0.185

42,931

 

 

WTI

$80.05

$80.09

-0.05%

-$0.04

64,120

 

 

Brent

$84.17

$84.24

-0.08%

-$0.07

2,064

 

 

ULSD

$2.937

$2.917

0.70%

$0.020

1,146

 

 

RBOB

$2.977

$2.951

0.88%

$0.026

886

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.11

$4.15

-0.96%

-$0.04

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$42.41

$41.32

2.65%

$1.10

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

NA

NA

NA

NA

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/21/23

669

-6

-89

07/22/22

 

 

Canada

07/21/23

187

0

-8

07/22/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/18/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

108,969

108,610

108,630

-20

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

92,989

92,676

92,379

297

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

436,155

410,119

423,583

-13,464

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

133,049

96,952

94,784

2,168

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

132,091

121,689

125,037

-3,348

 

 

NYM Ethanol

36,582

36,332

36,241

91

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,249

160,473

160,853

-380

 

 

RBOB

368,484

343,452

354,619

-11,167

 

 

HSC Basis

578,070

573,172

568,671

4,501

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/27/18

 

 

 

7/21/23

7/14/23

Net Change

% Change

7/22/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

670

661

9

1.36%

532

25.94%

594

12.79%

 

 

Midwest

757

741

16

2.16%

625

21.12%

674

12.28%

 

 

Mountain

189

186

3

1.61%

144

31.25%

165

14.41%

 

 

Pacific

232

232

0

0.00%

253

-8.30%

266

-12.91%

 

 

South

1,139

1,150

-11

-0.96%

862

32.13%

963

18.30%

 

 

    Salt

310

321

-11

-3.43%

195

58.97%

246

25.81%

 

 

    Non_Salt

829

829

0

0.00%

667

24.29%

716

15.78%

 

 

Total

2,987

2,971

16

0.54%

2,416

23.63%

2,663

12.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$46.64

$49.99

-6.70%

-$3.35

$46.38

0.56%

$82.67

-43.59%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$141.87

$120.21

18.02%

$21.66

$134.96

5.12%

$128.04

10.80%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$133.23

$129.69

2.73%

$3.54

$121.07

10.04%

$110.63

20.43%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$51.55

$55.29

-6.76%

-$3.74

$51.83

-0.54%

$83.97

-38.60%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$42.58

$43.90

-3.01%

-$1.32

$46.93

-9.28%

$78.35

-45.66%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$191.42

$199.86

-4.22%

-$8.44

$216.34

-11.52%

$146.10

31.02%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$44.23

$45.99

-3.81%

-$1.75

$45.67

-3.14%

$78.22

-43.45%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.595

$2.693

-3.64%

-$0.10

$2.65

-1.93%

$4.91

-47.17%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.254

-$0.247

2.59%

-$0.01

-$0.18

40.21%

-$0.16

61.05%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.306

-$0.312

1.76%

$0.01

-$0.32

-4.37%

-$0.23

32.04%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.502

-$0.534

-5.90%

$0.03

-$0.55

-8.09%

-$1.58

-68.27%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$0.859

-$0.923

6.86%

$0.06

-$0.77

11.52%

-$1.19

-27.53%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.692

-$0.720

-3.83%

$0.03

-$0.86

-19.50%

-$1.32

-47.69%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$1.888

$1.485

27.11%

$0.40

$1.46

28.96%

$0.58

228.04%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.702

$0.672

4.42%

$0.03

$0.54

29.11%

$0.95

-26.45%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.670

$0.648

3.47%

$0.02

$0.53

26.67%

$0.95

-29.15%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.258

$0.255

1.45%

$0.00

$0.23

12.97%

$0.39

-34.34%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.500

$1.499

0.07%

$0.00

$1.23

22.12%

$1.71

-12.34%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.816

$0.771

5.81%

$0.04

$0.62

32.48%

$1.09

-25.32%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.680

$0.652

4.18%

$0.03

$0.53

27.22%

$0.94

-27.93%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.582

$1.579

0.14%

$0.00

$1.37

15.61%

$1.58

0.31%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$80.09

$78.78

1.64%

$1.31

$69.73

14.86%

$83.84

-4.47%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$84.24

$82.92

1.57%

$1.32

$74.24

13.47%

$89.69

-6.08%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$16.38

-$16.71

-1.99%

$0.33

-$12.23

33.92%

-$15.59

5.11%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$81.50

$80.36

1.39%

$1.13

$71.86

13.41%

$85.32

-4.48%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$79.39

$78.44

1.19%

$0.95

$69.51

14.22%

$81.55

-2.65%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$80.62

$79.47

1.43%

$1.15

$69.68

15.71%

$83.80

-3.79%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$82.24

$80.92

1.61%

$1.32

$72.24

13.84%

$85.94

-4.31%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.91

$2.84

2.36%

$0.07

$2.39

21.42%

$3.06

-4.84%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.95

$2.90

1.69%

$0.05

$2.48

18.82%

$2.80

5.32%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.85

$2.80

1.75%

$0.05

$2.38

19.61%

$2.70

5.52%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.73

$2.65

2.83%

$0.07

$2.23

22.11%

$3.36

-18.76%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.30

$2.37

-2.95%

-$0.07

$2.39

-3.85%

$2.11

8.96%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$801.79

$780.49

2.73%

$21.29

$651.83

23.00%

$913.02

-12.18%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$107.46

$104.60

2.74%

$2.86

$89.82

19.64%

$115.25

-6.76%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

59.52%

57.81%

2.96%

1.71%

72.07%

-17.41%

55.28%

7.67%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

76.12%

76.82%

-0.91%

-0.70%

93.82%

-18.87%

73.86%

3.06%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

77.96%

78.46%

-0.64%

-0.50%

97.05%

-19.67%

137.07%

-43.12%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

65.22%

70.64%

-7.67%

-5.42%

79.10%

-17.55%

56.34%

15.76%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

54.93%

53.63%

2.42%

1.30%

49.89%

10.10%

45.98%

19.46%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

151.78%

140.18%

8.28%

11.60%

211.70%

-28.30%

68.34%

122.10%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

237.07%

231.05%

2.61%

6.02%

200.63%

18.16%

82.86%

186.11%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/27/23

7/26/23

% Change

Change

6/28/23

% Change

7/28/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 29.43

EUR 30.17

-2.46%

-EUR 0.74

EUR 35.23

-16.46%

EUR 134.80

-78.17%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 73.29

GBP 76.84

-4.61%

-GBP 3.55

GBP 88.82

-17.48%

GBP 293.78

-75.05%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 88.36

EUR 96.75

-8.66%

-EUR 8.38

EUR 112.32

-21.33%

EUR 321.73

-72.54%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 77.31

GBP 83.15

-7.03%

-GBP 5.84

GBP 94.09

-17.83%

GBP 237.54

-67.45%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 87.80

EUR 93.86

-6.45%

-EUR 6.06

EUR 109.86

-20.08%

EUR 281.39

-68.80%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 104.95

EUR 110.71

-5.20%

-EUR 5.76

EUR 124.17

-15.48%

EUR 306.06

-65.71%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.92

$11.19

6.46%

$0.72

$11.83

0.74%

$34.99

-65.94%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

60

16

-17

268

77

-1

40.00%

0.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

65

6

-23

328

17

-46

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

E N Central

43

-15

-32

313

-56

-140

-15.00%

-31.00%

 

 

W N Central

53

-19

-40

481

0

-119

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

105

7

-1

1,028

49

-119

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

95

0

-12

778

0

-180

0.00%

-19.00%

 

 

W S Central

148

23

-4

1,410

169

-188

14.00%

-12.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

29

1

554

-59

-148

-10.00%

-21.00%

 

 

Pacific

79

35

8

238

-46

-88

-16.00%

-27.00%

 

 

United States

84

9

-12

613

13

-115

2.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/22/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

0

1

-6

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-2

0

0

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

0

2

4

0

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

4

1

4

14

3

14

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-3

0

4

-12

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-5

-1

1

-18

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

 

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