Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jul-20-2023

Jul 20, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:28 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.742

$2.603

5.34%

$0.139

36,430

 

 

WTI

$75.85

$75.35

0.66%

$0.50

2,069

 

 

Brent

$79.91

$79.46

0.57%

$0.45

5,595

 

 

ULSD

$2.648

$2.642

0.25%

$0.007

3,337

 

 

RBOB

$2.710

$2.720

-0.38%

-$0.010

5,269

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.09

$4.17

-1.92%

-$0.08

Sep-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.96

$36.38

-1.15%

-$0.42

Aug-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$43.50

$44.00

-1.14%

-$0.50

Aug-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/14/23

675

-5

-81

07/15/22

 

 

Canada

07/14/23

187

12

-4

07/15/22

 

 

International

June

967

2

143

June

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/11/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

106,819

106,432

106,212

220

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

91,569

91,258

90,953

305

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

434,190

406,338

421,902

-15,564

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

270,240

202,259

197,212

5,047

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

138,358

130,705

132,078

-1,373

 

 

NYM Ethanol

33,547

33,257

33,229

28

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

161,355

160,464

160,956

-492

 

 

RBOB

344,946

321,384

330,103

-8,719

 

 

HSC Basis

569,968

564,978

560,408

4,570

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

07/13/18

 

 

 

7/7/23

6/30/23

Net Change

% Change

7/8/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

653

643

10

1.56%

501

30.34%

557

17.28%

 

 

Midwest

724

705

19

2.70%

586

23.55%

631

14.70%

 

 

Mountain

180

173

7

4.05%

143

25.87%

160

12.50%

 

 

Pacific

225

216

9

4.17%

249

-9.64%

268

-15.92%

 

 

South

1,147

1,141

6

0.53%

890

28.88%

976

17.52%

 

 

    Salt

323

325

-2

-0.62%

221

46.15%

268

20.61%

 

 

    Non_Salt

824

816

8

0.98%

669

23.17%

708

16.35%

 

 

Total

2,930

2,877

53

1.84%

2,369

23.68%

2,592

13.06%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Aug-23

$49.37

$49.57

-0.39%

-$0.19

$45.26

9.08%

$81.27

-39.25%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Aug-23

$162.21

$159.34

1.81%

$2.88

$98.60

64.52%

$128.87

25.87%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Aug-23

$99.97

$98.87

1.11%

$1.10

$115.71

-13.60%

$116.92

-14.49%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Aug-23

$53.53

$53.89

-0.67%

-$0.36

$51.21

4.54%

$83.43

-35.84%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Aug-23

$44.60

$47.41

-5.92%

-$2.81

$55.57

-19.74%

$72.95

-38.85%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Aug-23

$184.01

$181.03

1.64%

$2.98

$199.09

-7.58%

$148.05

24.29%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Aug-23

$45.30

$48.24

-6.09%

-$2.94

$49.33

-8.16%

$69.77

-35.07%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Aug-23

$2.603

$2.629

-0.99%

-$0.03

$2.57

1.28%

$5.04

-48.38%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Aug-23

-$0.195

-$0.177

9.80%

-$0.02

-$0.09

105.16%

-$0.15

31.42%

 

 

Chicago

Aug-23

-$0.245

-$0.250

2.04%

$0.00

-$0.21

18.12%

-$0.21

17.78%

 

 

Waha

Aug-23

-$0.400

-$0.399

-0.25%

$0.00

-$0.63

-36.84%

-$1.46

-72.54%

 

 

Algonquin

Aug-23

-$0.505

-$0.528

4.39%

$0.02

$0.19

-365.74%

-$0.45

11.11%

 

 

Aeco

Aug-23

-$0.732

-$0.730

0.23%

$0.00

-$0.91

-19.82%

-$1.30

-43.81%

 

 

Socal

Aug-23

$1.702

$1.719

-0.95%

-$0.02

$2.44

-30.37%

$0.68

150.11%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Aug-23

$0.644

$0.644

-0.04%

$0.00

$0.57

12.71%

$0.94

-31.49%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Aug-23

$0.645

$0.620

4.00%

$0.02

$0.56

15.48%

$0.93

-30.85%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Aug-23

$0.267

$0.284

-5.78%

-$0.02

$0.21

28.81%

$0.38

-29.59%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.399

$1.407

-0.60%

-$0.01

$1.37

2.47%

$1.74

-19.50%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Aug-23

$0.749

$0.737

1.63%

$0.01

$0.63

19.02%

$1.08

-30.51%

 

 

Conway Propane

Aug-23

$0.640

$0.608

5.34%

$0.03

$0.57

12.68%

$0.94

-31.55%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Aug-23

$1.480

$1.449

2.12%

$0.03

$1.37

8.04%

$1.83

-19.03%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$75.29

$75.66

-0.49%

-$0.37

$71.18

5.77%

$83.38

-9.70%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$79.46

$79.63

-0.21%

-$0.17

$75.89

4.70%

$88.75

-10.47%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$14.18

-$12.85

9.36%

-$1.33

-$14.11

0.47%

-$14.93

-5.07%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$77.09

$77.59

-0.64%

-$0.50

$73.10

5.47%

$84.52

-8.79%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$75.35

$75.52

-0.22%

-$0.16

$70.22

7.31%

$80.62

-6.53%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$76.44

$76.10

0.45%

$0.34

$70.59

8.28%

$81.13

-5.78%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$77.46

$77.63

-0.22%

-$0.17

$75.21

2.99%

$82.74

-6.39%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Aug-23

$2.64

$2.60

1.65%

$0.04

$2.44

8.19%

$2.97

-11.01%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.56

$2.55

0.31%

$0.01

$2.51

1.75%

$2.57

-0.54%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Aug-23

$2.45

$2.45

0.33%

$0.01

$2.41

1.82%

$2.47

-0.57%

 

 

GC Jet

Aug-23

$2.46

$2.42

1.53%

$0.04

$2.23

10.02%

$2.80

-12.08%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Aug-23

$2.43

$2.43

0.00%

$0.00

$2.45

-0.98%

$2.08

16.79%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Aug-23

$730.07

$710.91

2.69%

$19.16

$667.07

9.45%

$869.95

-16.08%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Aug-23

$101.39

$96.68

4.88%

$4.71

$92.32

9.82%

$117.83

-13.95%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

61.98%

60.30%

2.79%

1.68%

79.37%

-21.91%

50.27%

23.29%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

80.20%

82.82%

-3.16%

-2.62%

103.07%

-22.19%

74.45%

7.72%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

87.50%

95.22%

-8.11%

-7.72%

105.54%

-17.09%

132.65%

-34.04%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

71.47%

69.91%

2.23%

1.56%

88.24%

-19.00%

52.11%

37.15%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

48.20%

51.16%

-5.79%

-2.96%

51.42%

-6.26%

52.86%

-8.82%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

175.89%

126.79%

38.73%

49.10%

120.03%

46.54%

72.87%

141.38%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

204.52%

211.40%

-3.25%

-6.88%

191.01%

7.07%

89.92%

127.45%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

7/19/23

7/18/23

% Change

Change

6/20/23

% Change

7/20/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 27.83

EUR 29.43

-5.47%

-EUR 1.61

EUR 39.13

-28.89%

EUR 121.31

-77.06%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 70.62

GBP 72.85

-3.07%

-GBP 2.23

GBP 97.80

-27.80%

GBP 258.75

-72.71%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 91.23

EUR 88.25

3.37%

EUR 2.97

EUR 125.59

-27.36%

EUR 279.94

-67.41%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 62.50

GBP 84.38

-25.93%

-GBP 21.88

GBP 111.24

-43.81%

GBP 230.19

-72.85%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 86.41

EUR 87.08

-0.77%

-EUR 0.67

EUR 131.78

-34.43%

EUR 269.06

-67.88%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 105.55

EUR 115.23

-8.40%

-EUR 9.68

EUR 138.67

-23.88%

EUR 286.00

-63.09%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.30

$12.95

-12.72%

-$1.65

$12.85

-12.07%

$33.56

-66.32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/15/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

65

25

23

208

60

16

41.00%

8.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

74

18

16

263

10

-22

4.00%

-8.00%

 

 

E N Central

48

-8

5

270

-42

-107

-13.00%

-28.00%

 

 

W N Central

58

-12

-18

428

19

-79

5.00%

-16.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

103

7

11

923

42

-119

5.00%

-11.00%

 

 

E S Central

86

-7

-10

683

0

-168

0.00%

-20.00%

 

 

W S Central

143

20

-4

1,263

148

-184

13.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Mountain

93

16

-8

446

-87

-149

-16.00%

-25.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

14

0

159

-80

-96

-33.00%

-38.00%

 

 

United States

80

7

4

529

3

-103

1.00%

-16.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/15/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-2

-3

1

-4

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

1

0

-1

2

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

3

-1

3

10

1

10

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-5

0

4

-9

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-5

1

1

-13

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

2

-2

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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