Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Jan-19-2023

Jan 19, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:05 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$3.307

$3.311

-0.12%

-$0.004

23,509

 

 

WTI

$79.26

$79.48

-0.28%

-$0.22

7,101

 

 

Brent

$84.90

$84.98

-0.09%

-$0.08

6,887

 

 

ULSD

$3.245

$3.263

-0.57%

-$0.019

4,405

 

 

RBOB

$2.543

$2.524

0.77%

$0.019

3,187

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$5.34

$5.18

3.09%

$0.16

Mar-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$36.22

$35.71

1.43%

$0.51

Feb-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$66.95

$78.98

-15.23%

-$12.03

Feb-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

01/13/23

775

3

174

01/14/22

 

 

Canada

01/13/23

227

38

36

01/14/22

 

 

International

Dec

900

-10

66

Nov

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 1/3/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

95,936

95,518

95,736

-218

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

87,026

86,600

86,682

-82

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

441,995

422,227

431,506

-9,279

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

131,126

94,890

100,196

-5,306

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

146,083

136,821

140,512

-3,691

 

 

NYM Ethanol

17,576

16,979

17,250

-271

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

146,264

145,021

143,965

1,056

 

 

RBOB

239,297

219,320

225,710

-6,390

 

 

HSC Basis

543,538

539,131

533,512

5,619

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

01/12/18

 

 

 

1/6/23

12/30/22

Net Change

% Change

1/7/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

700

691

9

1.30%

730

-4.11%

681

2.76%

 

 

Midwest

823

839

-16

-1.91%

835

-1.44%

802

2.59%

 

 

Mountain

153

157

-4

-2.55%

159

-3.77%

159

-3.53%

 

 

Pacific

160

165

-5

-3.03%

204

-21.57%

231

-30.86%

 

 

South

1,067

1,040

27

2.60%

1,088

-1.93%

1,000

6.66%

 

 

    Salt

295

270

25

9.26%

330

-10.61%

297

-0.74%

 

 

    Non_Salt

772

770

2

0.26%

759

1.71%

703

9.75%

 

 

Total

2,902

2,891

11

0.38%

3,016

-3.78%

2,874

0.99%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Feb-23

$74.02

$86.06

-13.99%

-$12.04

$118.40

-37.48%

$74.85

-1.10%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Feb-23

$57.08

$63.61

-10.28%

-$6.54

$95.21

-40.05%

$59.43

-3.97%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Feb-23

$161.14

$157.77

2.14%

$3.37

$112.05

43.81%

$58.88

173.68%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Feb-23

$64.58

$74.25

-13.03%

-$9.68

$96.62

-33.17%

$70.93

-8.96%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Feb-23

$124.54

$139.36

-10.63%

-$14.82

$251.09

-50.40%

$157.38

-20.86%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Feb-23

$160.45

$159.66

0.50%

$0.79

$132.77

20.85%

$59.36

170.32%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Feb-23

$111.13

$122.48

-9.27%

-$11.35

$205.03

-45.80%

$104.70

6.15%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Feb-23

$3.311

$3.586

-7.67%

-$0.27

$6.30

-47.47%

$4.34

-23.64%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Feb-23

-$0.291

-$0.153

90.96%

-$0.14

$0.09

-426.68%

$0.24

-220.51%

 

 

Chicago

Feb-23

$1.589

$1.313

-17.39%

$0.28

$0.79

101.47%

$0.55

189.96%

 

 

Waha

Feb-23

-$0.549

-$0.277

-97.91%

-$0.27

$0.28

-299.20%

-$0.07

701.46%

 

 

Algonquin

Feb-23

$12.118

$11.364

6.64%

$0.75

$26.02

-53.42%

$14.48

-16.33%

 

 

Aeco

Feb-23

-$0.409

-$0.307

32.95%

-$0.10

-$1.49

-72.52%

-$0.97

-57.75%

 

 

Socal

Feb-23

$16.076

$12.974

23.91%

$3.10

$5.74

180.29%

$0.91

1660.36%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Feb-23

$0.899

$0.872

3.15%

$0.03

$0.72

24.76%

$1.00

-10.14%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Feb-23

$0.891

$0.867

2.72%

$0.02

$0.72

23.73%

$1.01

-12.15%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Feb-23

$0.262

$0.264

-1.00%

$0.00

$0.38

-31.67%

$0.32

-19.37%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Feb-23

$1.750

$1.794

-2.45%

-$0.04

$1.42

23.12%

$1.68

4.02%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Feb-23

$1.149

$1.128

1.87%

$0.02

$0.90

27.31%

$1.15

0.07%

 

 

Conway Propane

Feb-23

$0.891

$0.847

5.13%

$0.04

$0.76

17.93%

$1.06

-16.22%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Feb-23

$1.795

$1.806

-0.63%

-$0.01

$1.45

23.87%

$1.74

3.17%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Mar-23

$79.80

$80.45

-0.81%

-$0.65

$74.54

7.06%

$74.89

6.56%

 

 

Brent

Mar-23

$84.98

$85.92

-1.11%

-$0.94

$79.49

6.91%

$78.87

7.75%

 

 

WCS

Mar-23

-$23.48

-$22.17

5.58%

-$1.31

-$29.16

-19.48%

-$13.98

67.91%

 

 

LLS

Mar-23

$84.71

$83.29

1.68%

$1.42

$75.95

11.53%

$76.16

11.22%

 

 

Mars

Mar-23

$76.12

$77.09

-1.27%

-$0.97

$70.30

8.28%

$72.78

4.59%

 

 

Sour

Mar-23

$75.50

$77.56

-2.72%

-$2.05

$70.88

6.53%

$73.52

2.70%

 

 

ESPO

Mar-23

$83.09

$84.32

-1.48%

-$1.23

$76.82

8.16%

$76.76

8.25%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Feb-23

$3.26

$3.28

-0.37%

-$0.01

$3.08

5.91%

$2.43

34.39%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Feb-23

$2.56

$2.55

0.59%

$0.01

$2.14

19.35%

$2.17

17.86%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Feb-23

$2.46

$2.44

0.61%

$0.02

$2.05

20.29%

$2.07

18.73%

 

 

GC Jet

Feb-23

$2.97

$2.92

1.64%

$0.05

$2.69

10.29%

$2.22

33.84%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Feb-23

$2.16

$2.20

-1.59%

-$0.04

$2.14

0.93%

$1.93

12.41%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Feb-23

$895.51

$878.92

1.89%

$16.59

$818.89

9.36%

$662.42

35.19%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Feb-23

$118.38

$115.39

2.59%

$2.99

$110.80

6.84%

$91.46

29.43%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Mar-23

106.49%

98.49%

8.12%

8.00%

120.82%

-11.86%

51.82%

105.50%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Mar-23

133.28%

116.52%

14.38%

16.76%

143.69%

-7.24%

97.70%

36.42%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Mar-23

318.50%

307.31%

3.64%

11.19%

224.06%

42.15%

60.77%

424.11%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Mar-23

118.62%

106.06%

11.84%

12.56%

125.08%

-5.16%

53.34%

122.38%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Mar-23

92.27%

96.46%

-4.34%

-4.19%

83.43%

10.60%

39.18%

135.50%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Mar-23

48.92%

428.18%

-88.57%

-379.26%

113.15%

-56.77%

20.92%

133.84%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Mar-23

125.67%

118.62%

5.94%

7.05%

327.78%

-61.66%

31.58%

297.94%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

1/18/23

1/17/23

% Change

Change

12/16/22

% Change

1/18/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Mar-23

EUR 63.01

EUR 59.80

5.37%

EUR 3.21

EUR 119.05

-47.07%

EUR 61.69

2.14%

 

 

NBP

Mar-23

GBP 158.00

GBP 149.74

5.52%

GBP 8.26

GBP 295.25

-46.49%

GBP 160.24

-1.40%

 

 

German Base

Mar-23

EUR 147.23

EUR 148.65

-0.96%

-EUR 1.42

EUR 282.26

-47.84%

EUR 161.56

-8.87%

 

 

UK Base

Mar-23

GBP 150.88

GBP 151.59

-0.47%

-GBP 0.71

GBP 267.74

-43.65%

GBP 157.34

-4.10%

 

 

French Base

Mar-23

EUR 164.10

EUR 168.18

-2.43%

-EUR 4.08

EUR 303.86

-45.99%

EUR 196.26

-16.39%

 

 

Italian Base

Mar-23

EUR 179.72

EUR 180.37

-0.36%

-EUR 0.65

EUR 293.93

-38.86%

EUR 176.30

1.94%

 

 

JKM LNG

Mar-23

$25.01

$24.40

2.53%

$0.62

$35.19

-28.92%

$24.24

3.22%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

3

-5

-4

14

-1

-6

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

0

-2

0

1

-3

-2

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

4

1

3

11

5

5

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

0

0

0

0

0

0

NA

NA

 

 

United States

1

-1

0

4

0

-1

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

01/14/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

231

-51

-58

2,570

-450

25

NA

NA

 

 

Middle Atlantic

211

-51

-59

2,373

-336

197

NA

NA

 

 

E N Central

225

-71

-56

2,794

-265

274

NA

NA

 

 

W N Central

258

-60

-18

3,180

-147

428

NA

NA

 

 

South Atlantic

125

-21

-16

1,272

-101

209

NA

NA

 

 

E S Central

137

-51

-38

1,630

-154

245

NA

NA

 

 

W S Central

83

-54

-14

1,084

-94

338

NA

NA

 

 

Mountain

183

-36

-1

2,546

-40

408

NA

NA

 

 

Pacific

115

-16

14

1,512

-4

103

NA

NA

 

 

United States

166

-43

-26

1,990

-164

237

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

 

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