Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-10-2023

Aug 10, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:24 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.882

$2.959

-2.60%

-$0.077

35,515

 

 

WTI

$83.66

$84.40

-0.88%

-$0.74

108,485

 

 

Brent

$86.99

$87.55

-0.64%

-$0.56

7,396

 

 

ULSD

$3.165

$3.207

-1.30%

-$0.042

7,386

 

 

RBOB

$2.887

$2.928

-1.42%

-$0.042

8,466

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$3.99

$3.86

3.37%

$0.13

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$35.09

$35.93

-2.33%

-$0.84

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$37.58

$35.67

5.34%

$1.90

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

08/04/23

659

-5

-105

08/05/22

 

 

Canada

08/04/23

188

-5

-15

08/05/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 8/1/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

113,183

112,822

112,761

61

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

97,485

97,160

96,837

323

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

421,003

396,292

408,513

-12,221

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

126,830

99,517

94,344

5,173

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

125,575

117,240

119,263

-2,023

 

 

NYM Ethanol

30,665

30,397

30,346

51

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

165,762

164,960

165,362

-402

 

 

RBOB

368,760

342,949

353,684

-10,735

 

 

HSC Basis

615,020

611,440

604,714

6,726

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/03/18

 

 

 

7/28/23

7/21/23

Net Change

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

680

670

10

1.49%

549

23.86%

612

11.15%

 

 

Midwest

775

757

18

2.38%

643

20.53%

694

11.61%

 

 

Mountain

191

189

2

1.06%

147

29.93%

168

13.42%

 

 

Pacific

230

232

-2

-0.86%

253

-9.09%

265

-13.21%

 

 

South

1,124

1,139

-15

-1.32%

865

29.94%

961

17.01%

 

 

    Salt

297

310

-13

-4.19%

195

52.31%

240

23.54%

 

 

    Non_Salt

828

829

-1

-0.12%

671

23.40%

720

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,001

2,987

14

0.47%

2,457

22.14%

2,700

11.14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$43.72

$42.00

4.08%

$1.71

$40.06

9.12%

$66.94

-34.69%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$94.73

$86.03

10.11%

$8.70

$80.08

18.29%

$68.51

38.26%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$102.20

$103.18

-0.95%

-$0.98

$123.81

-17.46%

$110.40

-7.43%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$48.59

$46.04

5.55%

$2.55

$45.25

7.38%

$70.06

-30.65%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$35.71

$35.92

-0.60%

-$0.22

$35.13

1.63%

$59.56

-40.05%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$161.73

$159.26

1.55%

$2.47

$174.26

-7.19%

$121.62

32.97%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$36.57

$36.74

-0.46%

-$0.17

$35.39

3.32%

$54.83

-33.31%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.959

$2.777

6.55%

$0.18

$2.60

13.94%

$4.95

-40.17%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.275

-$0.266

3.27%

-$0.01

-$0.24

15.15%

-$0.17

63.75%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.275

-$0.256

-6.80%

-$0.02

-$0.36

-22.94%

-$0.28

-1.50%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.447

-$0.452

-1.11%

$0.01

-$0.72

-38.04%

-$2.42

-81.50%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$0.993

-$0.971

-2.18%

-$0.02

-$0.73

36.23%

-$1.16

-14.53%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.691

-$0.644

7.34%

-$0.05

-$0.86

-19.53%

-$1.47

-52.95%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$2.618

$2.764

-5.29%

-$0.15

$0.98

167.39%

$0.61

326.51%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.741

$0.748

-0.83%

-$0.01

$0.66

11.49%

$0.93

-20.20%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.733

$0.745

-1.66%

-$0.01

$0.66

11.60%

$0.93

-21.13%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.273

$0.260

4.75%

$0.01

$0.25

9.01%

$0.38

-28.31%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.579

$1.538

2.65%

$0.04

$1.40

12.60%

$1.68

-6.09%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.885

$0.873

1.38%

$0.01

$0.76

16.33%

$1.03

-14.20%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.728

$0.728

-0.06%

$0.00

$0.65

11.30%

$0.94

-22.95%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.626

$1.596

1.90%

$0.03

$1.48

10.21%

$1.67

-2.72%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$84.40

$82.92

1.75%

$1.48

$75.54

11.73%

$83.63

0.92%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$87.85

$86.42

1.64%

$1.44

$80.11

9.67%

$89.13

-1.43%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$16.16

-$15.79

2.28%

-$0.37

-$12.70

27.22%

-$14.97

7.96%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$85.81

$84.42

1.63%

$1.40

$77.62

10.56%

$83.88

2.30%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$84.03

$82.69

1.59%

$1.34

$75.22

11.71%

$79.73

5.40%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$85.19

$83.82

1.61%

$1.37

$76.11

11.93%

$80.38

5.98%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$85.85

$84.42

1.67%

$1.44

$78.11

9.91%

$84.63

1.44%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.21

$3.08

4.32%

$0.13

$2.60

23.46%

$2.97

8.01%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.90

$2.84

2.04%

$0.06

$2.51

15.19%

$2.38

21.94%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.80

$2.74

2.12%

$0.06

$2.41

15.82%

$2.28

22.90%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$3.01

$2.89

4.08%

$0.12

$2.41

25.10%

$2.70

11.40%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.15

$2.13

1.13%

$0.02

$2.18

-1.33%

$2.07

3.91%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$853.51

$828.98

2.96%

$24.53

$703.98

21.24%

$810.76

5.27%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$117.35

$112.31

4.49%

$5.04

$97.73

20.07%

$106.92

9.75%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

51.71%

52.73%

-1.93%

-1.02%

64.44%

-19.75%

53.80%

-3.88%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

70.59%

77.06%

-8.40%

-6.47%

86.87%

-18.74%

69.48%

1.60%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

69.45%

65.03%

6.80%

4.42%

84.16%

-17.48%

116.24%

-40.25%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

58.83%

59.72%

-1.49%

-0.89%

72.10%

-18.40%

54.55%

7.85%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

46.68%

51.02%

-8.51%

-4.34%

50.00%

-6.64%

52.84%

-11.66%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

326.32%

250.48%

30.28%

75.84%

212.28%

53.72%

72.85%

347.93%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

300.15%

299.65%

0.17%

0.50%

214.37%

40.01%

99.78%

200.81%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/9/23

8/8/23

% Change

Change

7/12/23

% Change

8/10/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 41.34

EUR 31.03

33.24%

EUR 10.31

EUR 28.60

44.54%

EUR 174.34

-76.29%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 108.63

GBP 78.07

39.15%

GBP 30.56

GBP 70.76

53.53%

GBP 398.49

-72.74%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 100.04

EUR 86.83

15.21%

EUR 13.21

EUR 91.99

8.76%

EUR 381.88

-73.80%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 87.74

GBP 79.91

9.81%

GBP 7.84

GBP 84.36

4.01%

GBP 344.65

-74.54%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 82.88

EUR 71.39

16.09%

EUR 11.49

EUR 97.50

-15.00%

EUR 363.02

-77.17%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 107.29

EUR 105.60

1.61%

EUR 1.70

EUR 110.32

-2.75%

EUR 364.31

-70.55%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.89

$11.02

7.93%

$0.87

$10.92

8.89%

$48.79

-75.62%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/05/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

18

-26

-52

354

73

-58

26.00%

-14.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

37

-21

-37

441

12

-89

3.00%

-17.00%

 

 

E N Central

46

-10

-17

431

-52

-141

-11.00%

-25.00%

 

 

W N Central

74

5

-3

652

29

-89

5.00%

-12.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

89

-7

-19

1,224

52

-142

4.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

94

0

-3

976

9

-190

1.00%

-16.00%

 

 

W S Central

158

33

14

1,711

219

-179

15.00%

-9.00%

 

 

Mountain

83

7

3

745

-24

-115

-3.00%

-13.00%

 

 

Pacific

55

8

-16

365

-13

-99

-3.00%

-21.00%

 

 

United States

73

-1

-15

778

29

-125

4.00%

-14.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

08/05/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

7

4

6

8

-5

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

2

-1

2

2

-6

2

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

2

-2

1

6

-6

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

0

15

-2

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-16

4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

0

-3

-1

3

-23

-6

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

1

-1

1

3

-8

1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

Tropical Outlook

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