Morning Report: Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vols — Aug-04-2023

Aug 4, 2023

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices as of 8:54 AM CST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Price

Previous Settle

% Change

Change

Volume

 

 

Natural Gas

$2.598

$2.565

1.29%

$0.033

36,535

 

 

WTI

$81.89

$81.55

0.42%

$0.34

114,667

 

 

Brent

$85.49

$85.14

0.41%

$0.35

7,841

 

 

ULSD

$3.069

$3.075

-0.19%

-$0.006

10,485

 

 

RBOB

$2.798

$2.765

1.20%

$0.033

10,882

 

 

 

 

Spreads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

Previous

% Change

Change

Contract

 

 

WTI-Brent

$4.08

$4.06

0.49%

$0.02

Oct-23

 

 

3:2:1 Crack

$32.62

$32.46

0.48%

$0.16

Sep-23

 

 

PJM West Spark

$34.31

$33.70

1.81%

$0.61

Sep-23

 

 

 

 

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

Count

Change

1 Year Chg.

1 Year Date

 

 

U.S.

07/28/23

664

-5

-103

07/29/22

 

 

Canada

07/28/23

193

6

-11

07/29/22

 

 

International

July

961

-6

128

July

 

 

 

 

CFTC Net Positions

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of 7/25/2023

Open Interest

Total Net Long

Total Net Short

Diff

 

 

PJM West On Peak

111,411

111,050

111,018

32

 

 

PJM West Off Peak

94,480

94,159

93,852

307

 

 

Natural Gas Henry Hub

439,977

413,251

427,405

-14,154

 

 

WTI – Light Sweet Crude Futures

137,464

103,164

96,509

6,655

 

 

Brent Crude Last Day

139,546

130,735

134,027

-3,292

 

 

NYM Ethanol

37,236

36,962

36,855

107

 

 

Mt Belvieu LDH Propane Swap

162,852

162,056

162,339

-283

 

 

RBOB

369,414

345,283

355,637

-10,354

 

 

HSC Basis

590,240

585,654

578,477

7,177

 

 

 

 

EIA Short Term Energy Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Brent

$70.89

$100.94

$79.54

$83.51

 

 

Gasoline

$3.02

$3.97

$3.39

$3.30

 

 

Crude Oil Production

11.25

11.89

12.61

12.77

 

 

Natural Gas Spot

$3.91

$6.42

$2.66

$3.42

 

 

LNG Exports

9.76

10.59

12.07

12.73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electrical Generation %

2021

2022

2023projected

2024projected

 

 

Natural gas

37.00%

39.00%

41.00%

39.00%

 

 

Coal

23.00%

20.00%

16.00%

16.00%

 

 

Renewables

20.00%

22.00%

23.00%

25.00%

 

 

Nuclear

20.00%

19.00%

19.00%

19.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Term Energy Outlook

 

Natural Gas Storage

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EIA Lower 48 Natural Gas Storage

 

 

 

 

08/03/18

 

 

 

7/28/23

7/21/23

Net Change

% Change

7/29/22

% Change

5 Year Avg.

% Change

 

 

East

680

670

10

1.49%

549

23.86%

612

11.15%

 

 

Midwest

775

757

18

2.38%

643

20.53%

694

11.61%

 

 

Mountain

191

189

2

1.06%

147

29.93%

168

13.42%

 

 

Pacific

230

232

-2

-0.86%

253

-9.09%

265

-13.21%

 

 

South

1,124

1,139

-15

-1.32%

865

29.94%

961

17.01%

 

 

    Salt

297

310

-13

-4.19%

195

52.31%

240

23.54%

 

 

    Non_Salt

828

829

-1

-0.12%

671

23.40%

720

14.97%

 

 

Total

3,001

2,987

14

0.47%

2,457

22.14%

2,700

11.14%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Power Generation Additions/Retirements

 

 

  

 

Front Month Prices

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electricity

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

PJM West On Peak

Sep-23

$39.87

$39.18

1.75%

$0.68

$40.00

-0.33%

$63.41

-37.13%

 

 

ERCOT North On Peak

Sep-23

$67.74

$60.95

11.14%

$6.79

$61.12

10.84%

$68.74

-1.46%

 

 

CAISO SP 15 On Peak

Sep-23

$108.36

$103.24

4.97%

$5.13

$98.25

10.29%

$106.02

2.21%

 

 

MISO Indiana On Peak

Sep-23

$45.80

$44.86

2.10%

$0.94

$46.33

-1.14%

$66.49

-31.11%

 

 

NEISO Mass On Peak

Sep-23

$34.88

$33.47

4.22%

$1.41

$36.32

-3.97%

$55.83

-37.52%

 

 

WECC Mid C On Peak

Sep-23

$184.04

$154.30

19.28%

$29.74

$173.82

5.88%

$121.23

51.81%

 

 

NYISO Zone G On Peak

Sep-23

$36.64

$35.46

3.33%

$1.18

$37.48

-2.25%

$48.93

-25.11%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas & Basis

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

NYMEX Henry Hub

Sep-23

$2.565

$2.477

3.55%

$0.09

$2.60

-1.31%

$4.87

-47.31%

 

 

Houston Ship Channel

Sep-23

-$0.260

-$0.269

-3.60%

$0.01

-$0.24

7.85%

-$0.18

42.28%

 

 

Chicago

Sep-23

-$0.271

-$0.289

6.34%

$0.02

-$0.35

-21.86%

-$0.28

-4.74%

 

 

Waha

Sep-23

-$0.476

-$0.519

-8.32%

$0.04

-$0.66

-27.85%

-$1.90

-74.94%

 

 

Algonquin

Sep-23

-$0.940

-$0.905

-3.93%

-$0.04

-$0.80

17.18%

-$1.17

-19.62%

 

 

Aeco

Sep-23

-$0.661

-$0.640

3.25%

-$0.02

-$0.93

-28.96%

-$1.53

-56.93%

 

 

Socal

Sep-23

$2.732

$2.615

4.49%

$0.12

$1.25

118.52%

$0.57

379.42%

 

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas Liquids

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane LST

Sep-23

$0.760

$0.756

0.49%

$0.00

$0.58

30.81%

$0.95

-20.22%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Propane non LST

Sep-23

$0.745

$0.742

0.32%

$0.00

$0.57

31.19%

$0.91

-18.16%

 

 

Mt. Belview Ethane

Sep-23

$0.246

$0.245

0.58%

$0.00

$0.25

0.16%

$0.38

-35.54%

 

 

Mt. Belview Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.493

$1.559

-4.29%

-$0.07

$1.31

13.83%

$1.65

-9.69%

 

 

Mt. Belvieu Butane LST

Sep-23

$0.868

$0.859

1.12%

$0.01

$0.66

31.52%

$1.06

-17.91%

 

 

Conway Propane

Sep-23

$0.755

$0.735

2.66%

$0.02

$0.57

32.32%

$0.95

-20.52%

 

 

Conway Nat. Gasoline

Sep-23

$1.547

$1.577

-1.89%

-$0.03

$1.36

13.65%

$1.61

-4.15%

 

 

 

 

Crude Oil

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

WTI

Sep-23

$81.55

$79.49

2.53%

$2.06

$71.79

13.60%

$79.90

2.07%

 

 

Brent

Sep-23

$85.37

$83.40

2.30%

$1.97

$76.52

11.57%

$85.51

-0.16%

 

 

WCS

Sep-23

-$15.73

-$14.69

6.58%

-$1.03

-$13.18

19.32%

-$16.04

-1.94%

 

 

LLS

Sep-23

$83.27

$81.32

2.33%

$1.94

$73.79

12.85%

$80.74

3.14%

 

 

Mars

Sep-23

$79.91

$79.26

0.81%

$0.65

$71.67

11.49%

$79.60

0.39%

 

 

Sour

Sep-23

$80.75

$80.35

0.49%

$0.40

$72.46

11.44%

$78.02

3.49%

 

 

ESPO

Sep-23

$83.37

$81.40

2.36%

$1.97

$74.52

11.88%

$80.81

3.17%

 

 

 

 

Refined Products

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

NY Heating Oil

Sep-23

$3.09

$3.01

2.49%

$0.07

$2.48

24.58%

$2.88

7.37%

 

 

NY Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.76

$2.79

-0.97%

-$0.03

$2.22

24.43%

$2.44

13.16%

 

 

GC Gasoline

Sep-23

$2.66

$2.69

-1.00%

-$0.03

$2.12

25.58%

$2.34

13.72%

 

 

GC Jet

Sep-23

$2.89

$2.82

2.34%

$0.07

$2.29

26.43%

$2.74

5.32%

 

 

Chicago Ethanol

Sep-23

$2.10

$2.08

0.86%

$0.02

$2.16

-2.64%

$2.01

4.27%

 

 

Rotterdam Gasoil

Sep-23

$834.17

$819.45

1.80%

$14.72

$658.30

26.72%

$813.49

2.54%

 

 

Singapore Jet Kero

Sep-23

$111.36

$111.99

-0.56%

-$0.63

$92.40

20.52%

$109.15

2.03%

 

 

 

 

Implied Volatilities

 

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

Henry Hub Straddle

Sep-23

52.47%

55.09%

-4.76%

-2.62%

67.11%

-21.81%

55.48%

-5.43%

 

 

Algonquin Straddle

Sep-23

72.69%

78.90%

-7.87%

-6.21%

82.41%

-11.79%

80.47%

-9.67%

 

 

Waha Straddle

Sep-23

76.53%

74.15%

3.21%

2.38%

91.73%

-16.57%

120.64%

-36.56%

 

 

Chicago Straddle

Sep-23

60.40%

63.71%

-5.20%

-3.31%

75.90%

-20.42%

55.38%

9.06%

 

 

PJM West Straddle

Sep-23

55.29%

51.29%

7.80%

4.00%

53.16%

4.01%

52.92%

4.48%

 

 

SP – 15 Straddle

Sep-23

249.98%

293.73%

-14.89%

-43.75%

164.05%

52.38%

70.78%

253.18%

 

 

Mid. C Straddle

Sep-23

275.90%

262.92%

4.94%

12.98%

207.91%

32.70%

90.50%

204.86%

 

 

 

 

Euro Gas and Power/LNG

 

 

EOXLive Market Data

 

 

 

Contract

8/3/23

8/2/23

% Change

Change

7/6/23

% Change

8/4/22

% Change

 

 

Dutch TTF

Sep-23

EUR 31.00

EUR 28.80

7.64%

EUR 2.20

EUR 34.43

-9.96%

EUR 155.71

-80.09%

 

 

NBP

Sep-23

GBP 77.52

GBP 72.26

7.29%

GBP 5.26

GBP 85.97

-9.83%

GBP 349.78

-77.84%

 

 

German Base

Sep-23

EUR 87.16

EUR 85.22

2.28%

EUR 1.94

EUR 99.92

-12.77%

EUR 348.43

-74.99%

 

 

UK Base

Sep-23

GBP 76.53

GBP 74.77

2.36%

GBP 1.76

GBP 94.24

-18.79%

GBP 274.57

-72.13%

 

 

French Base

Sep-23

EUR 83.73

EUR 83.01

0.87%

EUR 0.72

EUR 106.85

-21.64%

EUR 317.39

-73.62%

 

 

Italian Base

Sep-23

EUR 103.18

EUR 102.74

0.43%

EUR 0.44

EUR 118.40

-12.85%

EUR 349.58

-70.48%

 

 

JKM LNG

Sep-23

$11.26

$10.60

6.24%

$0.66

$11.82

-4.71%

$42.40

-73.44%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooling Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/29/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

67

22

-4

335

99

-5

42.00%

-2.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

75

16

-6

403

32

-52

9.00%

-11.00%

 

 

E N Central

72

14

16

385

-42

-124

-10.00%

-24.00%

 

 

W N Central

96

24

34

578

25

-85

5.00%

-13.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

108

10

-4

1,135

59

-123

5.00%

-10.00%

 

 

E S Central

104

9

-7

882

9

-187

1.00%

-17.00%

 

 

W S Central

142

16

-5

1,552

185

-193

14.00%

-11.00%

 

 

Mountain

108

28

30

662

-30

-117

-4.00%

-15.00%

 

 

Pacific

72

25

6

310

-21

-83

-6.00%

-21.00%

 

 

United States

93

18

5

705

30

-110

4.00%

-13.00%

 

 

 

 

Heating Degree Days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

07/29/2023

Week Tot

Dev Norm

Dev L YR

Cum Tot

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

CumD Norm

CumD L YR

 

 

New England

0

-3

0

1

-9

-4

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Middle Atlantic

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E N Central

0

-4

-1

4

-4

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W N Central

0

-3

-3

15

1

11

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

South Atlantic

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

E S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

W S Central

0

0

0

0

0

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Mountain

0

-2

0

4

-14

3

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

Pacific

1

-3

1

2

-21

-5

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

United States

0

-2

0

2

-6

0

-999.00%

-999.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gas * Power * NGL * Crude * Products * Vol Charts

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Forecast & Seasonal Outlook

 

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