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EIA weekly ethanol update

  • The US weekly EIA ethanol data was viewed negative for US corn futures.
  • Weekly US ethanol production plunged 66,000 barrels per day to 963,000 barrels. Traders were looking for a 17,000 decrease. Stocks were up 569,000 barrels to 24.636 million barrels (estimate was for a 31,000 decline).
  • US ethanol production of 0.963 million barrels per day is about 9% below from about the same time a year ago.
  • Over the past 4 weeks, production changes averaged down 14,000 and stocks up 426,000.
  • Early September 2022 to date (16 weeks) US ethanol production is running 4.3% below the same period a year ago. At this time last year ethanol production was advancing 8.9% above the Sep 1, 2021-Dec 24, 2021, period.
  • Padd2 production was 906,000 barrels, down 66,000 from a week earlier. Padd1 was unchanged and Padd3 up 2,000.
  • There were no ethanol imports reported this week.
  • Ethanol stocks of 24.636 million barrels are up about 19.2% from a year ago and 5.9% above the last previous 4-week average. The record for ethanol stocks was 27.689 million barrels set on 4/17/20, but today’s inventories are still considered high.
  • Days of inventory of 25.0 compares to 22.4 a month ago and 19.6 during comparable period a year ago.
  • Weekly ending stocks of total gasoline were down 3.105 million barrels to 223.0 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 613,000 barrels to 9.327 million barrels (top 5 for demand for 2022)
  • The net blender input of fuel ethanol was up 40,000 from the previous week at 916,000 bpd, above its previous 4-week average of 874,000 bpd.
  • Net production of finished reformulated and conventional motor gasoline with ethanol, increased 414,000 to 9.026 million barrels, or 90.2 percent of the net production of all finished motor gasoline, down from 90.5 percent for the previous week.
  • For 2022-23, we are using 5.250 billion bushels, unchanged from previous, and compares to 5.275 billion by USDA and 5.326 billion for 2021-22.




Terry Reilly

Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds

Futures International
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