FI Morning Grain Comments 12/12/22

PDF attached

Good
morning.

January
soybeans are down more than 20 cents on weakness in outside related vegetable oil markets and weaker CBOT soybean meal. China is (further) easing China covid restrictions. Outside vegetable oil markets were lower, specifically Malaysian palm oil and China
palm oil, despite good Malaysian December 1-10 shipment data. Argentina is back from a 2-day holiday. Weekend rains were welcome but not all areas benefited from them. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 14 points earlier this morning and meal
$7.80 short ton lower. Recall soybean meal prices were up 4.50 to 6.40/short ton on Friday while soybean oil was lower. US wheat futures are higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns. Russia over the weekend attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Agriculture
Minister Mykola Solky does not expect see a suspension of grain exports from Odesa after the attacks but did admit there were problems. US temperatures will be cold, at least for the 6-10 period, across the majority of the US and snow coverage is very light
for this time of year, potentially raising the risk for winter grain crop damage. The winter storm expected to roll across the US early this week is badly needed. Corn futures are higher. We think they are mainly following strength in wheat. China’s National
Statistics Bureau (or NBS) reported the 2022 soybean crop increased a large 24 percent to 20.3 million tons, and corn output up 1.7 percent from good weather to 277.2 million tons. All wheat China crop production was 137.72 million tons, up 0.6 percent from
2021.  For comparison, China’s CASDE had 272.55 million tons for corn and 19.48 million for soybeans.

Weather

Argentina
saw hot temperatures over the weekend but also received some welcome rain Friday night into Saturday. Rain across BA was on the drier side. Brazil was on the dry side for the south and west but will see good rain over the next couple of weeks. The US will
see a welcome winter storm this week, boosting snow coverage. Temps will turn colder for the US over the next two weeks. Eastern Europe and the western CIS will see two winter storms this week.