FI Morning Grain Comments 06/26/23

Jun 26, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

US
weather and Black Sea concerns are sending most commodity markets higher. Corn futures saw a wide trading range when the market opened Sunday, currently lower back months. US wheat futures are higher on renewed Black Sea concerns amid Russia instability. This
is also affecting vegetable oils, and earlier corn futures.  Global export developments were quiet over the weekend. We don’t see any near-term impact on Russia agricultural exports. Soybeans and meal are higher on US weather concerns. Rain developed over
the weekend across the western and northern Corn Belt but many areas missed out on widespread precipitation, including Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. The majority of the US Midwest will be dry until later this week but milder temperatures should slow condition
declines bias the dry areas before rising bias the southwestern Corn Belt Wed-Fri.  The Canadian Prairies will turn drier over the next week.  Third month Malaysian palm oil futures increased 99 ringgit to 3719, and cash increased $17.50 to $875/ton. China
is back from holiday and futures were mixed with soybean nearly unchanged meal lower and vegetable oils higher. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 183 points this morning and meal $11.20 short ton lower.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 23 (net in 000)

 

 

Weather

Last
7 days

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with low confidence

 

7-day

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 26, 2023

  • Not
    much changed overnight
  • Europe
    and the western CIS will be trending wetter this week
  • China
    will receive rain in most of the nation east of Tibet with areas north of the Yellow River staying driest
  • Eastern
    Australia’s best rain opportunity will be late in the weekend and early next week, but some rain will impact interior South Australia and western and some central New South Wales locations later today into Wednesday
  • Southeast
    Asia rainfall will be more active this week improving topsoil moisture for many areas from the mainland areas into Indonesia
  • India’s
    rainfall will be improving additionally this week with some heavy rain likely in central parts of the nation
  • Substantial
    rain fell in portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota during the weekend while lighter rain fell to the east from southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska into northern Iowa and northern Illinois
    • The
      moisture was welcome and eased dryness, but a big part of the Midwest dryness was not relieved and dryness expanded to the southwest because of warm to hot temperatures and no rain
  • Not
    much additional relief is expected in the U.S. Midwest until late this week and in the weekend when the next bout of scattered showers and thunderstorms evolve
    • Cooling
      will accompany the weekend rain and follow up showers are expected next week
  • The
    U.S. Gulf of Mexico opens as a moisture source during the weekend and a more normal pattern occurs next week as the Bermuda high finally gets in its normal position
  • Mild
    temperatures will impact the Midwest early this week and then the southwestern Corn Belt (Illinois to Missouri and Kansas will get hot again Wednesday through Friday
  • Texas
    will be hot and dry most of this week, but will cool down during the late weekend and early next week
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will remain drier biased for the next ten days, despite some showers
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