FI Morning Grain Comments 06/23/23

Jun 23, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Negative
EU economic news and an evening US weather forecast calling for an increase in rainfall for the WCB today through this weekend (OK through IA bias) and northern Corn Belt June 30-July 2, sent soybeans, soybean meal and grain lower overnight. Nearby soybean
oil is higher (July expires soon) on product spreading despite lower WTI crude oil. Back month soybean oil turned lower before the electronic close. The USD was sharply higher earlier this morning. US and EU equities are under pressure. End of week profit
taking should be noted. Today is July option expiration. China is on holiday, returning Monday. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher on Friday but ended the week 3.2 percent lower. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 136 points this morning (33
lower for the week to date) and meal $15.50 short ton lower ($22.80 higher for the week). Look for a choppy trade today. Option volume was heavy yesterday and again this morning.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of June 22 (net in 000)

 

 

 

Weather

7-day

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 23, 2023

  • Hot
    temperatures in Texas may bubble up into Kansas, Missouri and parts of Illinois this weekend again during the middle to latter part of next week; extreme highs in the 90s Fahrenheit are expected with a couple of readings near 100
  • Central
    Midwest rainfall will continue to be poorly distributed in the coming week, although a few showers and thunderstorms will pop up; no serious relief to dryness is likely
  • Week
    two U.S. weather may provide a little more rain in the Midwest, but it may only be a temporary reprieve and some caution will be needed in determining the impact of that moisture; any rain will be important, but the relief may not last long
  • GFS
    model is trying to bring a tropical cyclone into the Gulf of Mexico during the second week of the outlook, this may or may not verify, but be assured that the feature will influence week two weather in many of the coming computer model runs; (confidence in
    a storm verifying is very low today)
  • No
    ridge of high pressure is expected in the U.S. Midwest next week or in the following week resulting in little to no potential for excessive heat except in the southwestern Corn Belt as noted in the first bullet above
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains and upper Midwest rainfall expected this weekend and periodically in the second week of the outlook should prove extremely beneficial in improving crop and field conditions in the Dakotas, Minnesota, southern Manitoba and a some surrounding areas
  • Rain
    in the Great Lakes region over the next couple of weeks will help prevent crops from drying down much more than they already have
  • Texas
    will continue to deal with excessive heat for much of the coming week with extremes of 108 to 116 common in the central and south stressing livestock and unirrigated crops throughout the state and in parts of Oklahoma as well
    • A
      strong energy demand for natural gas and electricity will continue in Texas and some immediate neighboring areas
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will experience net drying in the heart of the region while Manitoba and western Alberta have the best chance for rain over the next week to ten days; greater rain is still expected in July across Saskatchewan
  • India’s
    monsoon depression expected over the coming week will bring much needed rain to much of the nation
  • Russia
    has confirmed lower sunseed and spring wheat yields because of dryness earlier this season in the eastern New Lands, but weather in this coming week will be mild to cool and rain is expected in many areas
  • China
    will continue quite wet in the southern rice areas where early rice quality may be compromised and some delay in harvesting is likely
  • Net
    drying may continue north of the Yellow River for a while, but most of the dryness will be in minor summer crop areas with some sugarbeet and spring wheat impacted
  • No
    changes in South America weather were noted overnight
  • Eastern
    Australia’s rain event is still on for late next week and in the following weekend; if it verifies it would be a big boon for wheat and barley in Queensland and northern New South Wales where it has been dry, but the system may be a little overdone
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rainfall is becoming quite erratic and light, but some increase in rainfall is expected
  • Water
    supply in mainland areas of Southeast Asia remains poor and western Thailand rainfall continues well below normal; other areas in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos will get timely rain of greater benefit