FI Morning Grain Comments 05/23/23

May 23, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

WTI
crude oil was up 81 cents and US up a strong 39 points. Grains are higher on light fund buying led by the corn and MN wheat markets. US weather outlook has not changed much of that of yesterday and net drying is still seen for parts of the US Midwest. Soybeans
are mixed, soybean oil lower and meal little higher. US planting progress is moving along nicely and that could limit near term rallies but expect the trade to monitor US rainfall over the medium term. The ECB is in good shape, but the WCB needs precipitation.
The Philippines bought 40,000 tons of feed wheat. Reuters noted the US bought at least 210,000 tons of EU wheat over the past week for May and August shipment. We are unsure that includes the USDA 24-hour Poland sale.
Third
month (Aug) Malaysia palm futures fell to a three-week low. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 200 points this morning and meal $2.20 short ton higher.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 22

 

 

Weather

A map of the united states Description automatically generated with medium confidence

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 23, 2023

  • Not
    many changes overnight
  • Western
    Alberta, Canada has begun to receive significant rain, but the drought areas in the east have only reported light showers
  • Saskatchewan,
    Canada rainfall advertised for Wednesday into Friday of this week has been increased while that which occurs in Manitoba is mostly unchanged
  • Canada
    Prairies’ drought areas will get a few showers in the coming week, but no generalized soaking rain is likely
  • Frost
    and freezes returned to Quebec, Canada overnight with limited impact other than to restrict wheat development
  • U.S.
    Midwest is still expected to experience net drying over the coming week to ten days
  • U.S.
    Southern Plains will experience frequent rain the remainder of this week and into next week raising some wheat quality concerns, but favoring summer crop development
    • The
      moisture will be good for reproducing and filling wheat in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado
  • Northern
    U.S. Plains will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine, although frequent precipitation in North Dakota may slow planting progress
  • Brazil’s
    Safrinha corn areas will get some timely rain late in this coming weekend and early next week ensuring good crop development in the late planted areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo
  • Some
    of Brazil’s rain will briefly reach sugarcane, citrus and coffee areas in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo this weekend slowing crop maturation and harvesting
  • Argentina’s
    western wheat areas need more rain and showers expected will be limited in the next ten days
  • Eastern
    Russia’s New Lands will dry down over the next week to ten days and temperatures will become very warm
  • China
    weather will be favorably mixed
  • Northern
    India will become wetter than usual later this week and into the weekend, though the moisture will be good for early season cotton development
  • Australia
    will continue to get periodic rain near the southern coast while interior Western and South Australia are dry biased over the next ten days along with Queensland and northern New South Wales
  • Typhoon
    Mawar will damage Guam and the southern Mariana Islands later today and Wednesday with sustained wind speeds to 155 mph and stronger gusts possibly approaching 190 mph. A huge storm surge is expected too and rainfall of 10-20 inches.
  • Northern
    Europe will be drying down as will western Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
May 23: