FI Morning Grain Comments 05/17/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA:
Private exporters reported the cancellation of sales of 272,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. As China continues to cancel corn commitments, corn spreads are weaker. A Turkish official said the Black Sea grain
deal will be extended, but there is no confirmation at this time. KC wheat is higher in the front two months after Day one of the US winter wheat crop tour confirmed poor conditions. Nearby Chicago is lower on follow through technical selling. Soybeans are
lower, bias nearby contracts. Soybean meal is lower and soybean oil rebounding in part to higher WTI crude oil. The EPA is expected to send RFS volumes to the OMB this week. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 140 points this morning and meal
$4.10 short ton higher.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 16

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 17, 2023

• Argentina’s
  rain potential for late this week and next week is still very good and wheat planting should proceed normally
• No
  change in Brazil’s weather outlook was noted overnight with Safrinha crop areas drying down normally
• There
  is no risk of frost or freezes in the next two weeks in any grain, coffee or sugarcane production area
• China’s
  dryness in Inner Mongolia will remain in place with some potential expansion to the southwest into Shanxi over time, but for now only northern Hebei is included in the dry bias associated with the Inner Mongolia dryness
• Russia
  and Ukraine weather is still expected to be favorable over the next ten days to two weeks with timely rain expected
  
• Russia’s
  eastern New Lands and a part of northern Kazakhstan may dry down again as time moves along, though it will be gradual
• Thailand
  and immediate neighboring areas are back into a net drying mode for the next several days with rain resuming late in the weekend and especially next week
  
• Water
  supply is low and concern about El Nino reducing rainfall during the monsoon this year continues to be a key concern
• Indonesia
  and Malaysia rainfall and soil moisture are still supporting crops favorably
• Canada’s
  drought region in the Prairies is not likely to change much over the next week and rainfall in the second week is expected to be a little too sporadic and light for a serious bout of relief, although some rain may fall
• Ontario
  and Quebec will be impacted by some frost and freezes in the coming week, but permanent damage to wheat is not likely and most of the corn and soybean crops are just now beginning to be planted
• Frost
  in eastern Canada’s Prairies and in part of North Dakota and Minnesota later this week is not expected to induce any permanent damage for crops
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta and southeastern states have nearly ideal soil moisture and weather will continue to be well mixed with timely rainfall and seasonable to slightly warmer than usual temperatures expected
• Warming
  in late May and early June will accelerate drying rates in some areas and that should be monitored
• West-central
  and southwestern U.S. Plains rainfall will occur more often in the next ten days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
May 17:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Future
  Food Asia 2023 conference in Singapore, day 2
• GrainCom
  conference in Geneva, day 3

Thursday,
May 18:

• China’s
  2nd batch of April trade data, including agricultural imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• EARNINGS:
  Australian Agricultural Co.
• HOLIDAY:
  France, Germany, Indonesia

Friday,
May 19: