FI Morning Grain Comments 05/16/23

PDF attached

 

 

Good
morning. 

 

Grains
and the soybean complex are lower. China tossed a wrench into the short-term agriculture bull machine by reporting poor April economic data that rippled into their currency valuation against the USD. Some are doubting the covid recovery has positively impacted
business efforts after a Monday report that showed a rebound in energy consumption by that country. China industrial production for April rose by 5.6% year-on-year, below 10.9% expected, and retail sales increased 18.4%, below 21% trade average. China stock
composites didn’t tank, a good sign, however, market sentiment remains frail, according to market reports.
The USD is 5 points lower, WTI crude oil 22 cents higher and US equity futures lower. US wheat conditions were unchanged after a second rainy week for the first month
of May for parts of the Great Plains, one point below expectations, while summer planting progress is moving along at a rapid pace for corn and soybeans across the US Midwest.

 

Fund
estimates as of May 15

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

• Frost
  and Freezes in North America over the next week will have no permanent impact on crops
• Ontario
  and Quebec will be coldest Wednesday and again this weekend with lows in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit
• Parts
  of Canada’s eastern Prairies will see frost and a few light freezes Thursday and Friday with no permanent impact on crops
• Patches
  of soft frost cannot be ruled out in North Dakota or northern Minnesota Friday either, although the impact will be minimal
• Canada’s
  Prairies may experience some increase in rainfall during the middle to latter part of next week, although confidence is low on how significant the moisture will be in the drought region
• Any
  rain would be welcome
• Drought
  remains serious in east-central and interior southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan with no rain and waves of heat likely in this first week of the outlook
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas of Kansas, southeastern Colorado, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will have a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with a few showers beginning Wednesday night
  
• Rainfall
  of 0.30 to 0.90 inch and local totals over 1.25 inches will be possible
• Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms may resume during the weekend and continue periodically through the last days of May
• Northern
  U.S. Plains, Canada’s Prairies and much of the northwestern U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt will be drier biased over this first week of the outlook
• U.S.
  crop weather in general over the next ten days to two weeks will be favorably mixed providing time for planting and moisture for emergence and establishment
• This
  includes most of the Midwest, the Great Plains, Delta and southeastern states
• U.S.
  temperatures in the coming week will be very warm in the far western states and near normal in much of the central and east, although the southwestern Plains will be cooler biased for a while
• Warmer
  biased temperatures are likely many key crop areas except in the southwestern Plains next week
• Argentina
  weather is still expected to slowly become more active with waves of timely rain to bolster planting moisture in winter wheat areas