PDF attached
US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 253K (est 185K; prev 236K)
US
Unemployment Rate Apr: 3.4% (est 3.6%; prev 3.5%)
US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Apr: 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)
WTI
crude oil is rebounding, up $2.31 earlier, USD 21 points higher and US equities higher. CBOT agriculture markets are mostly higher on positioning ahead of the weekend. Black Sea grain deal talks started today and will continue into early next week. Corn futures
are on track to close the week about slightly higher. Slowing US demand may limit gains today. US wheat areas have rain in the forecast through at least mid-next week. We look for an improvement of 2 points for the G/E categories for winter wheat when updated
on Monday. Soybeans are higher led by soybean oil. Meal
is near flat on product spreading. After a one day holiday, Malaysia palm futures increased 176 ringgit to 3601, and cash increased $47.50 to $877.50/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 81 points this morning (13 higher for the week to date)
and meal $0.20 short ton lower ($0.20 lower for the week). The US weather forecast improved a touch from that of Thursday.
Fund
estimates as of May 4
WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 5, 2023
- Upper
U.S. Midwest and northeastern Plains weather this weekend will include scattered showers that will interfere with the region’s recent drying trend and will limit fieldwork for some areas - Another
storm will follow during mid-week next week adding more moisture to the region and perpetuating some field working delay - All
U.S. Midwest and Great Plains crop areas will get moisture at one time or another during the next two weeks and the overall environment will be good for future spring and summer crop planting and development - Some
of the rain is overdone with the lower eastern Midwest expecting the best conditions - Warm
temperatures in the southern half of the Plains and from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf of Mexico Coast will keep evaporation rates high enough between rain events to minimize disruptions to farming activity - U.S.
West-central and southwestern Plains will see the lightest precipitation in the Plains for a while - The
best chance for rain in the west-central and southwestern Plains should be in the middle to latter part of next week - West
Texas rain potentials will begin to improve again during mid-week next week and the risk of showers and thunderstorms may be highest in the second half of next week and into the following weekend - Cordoba
through Entre Rios, Argentina to Uruguay will be wettest today and Saturday with some moderate to heavy rain possible
- Other
areas in Argentina are unlikely to get much significant rain over the next ten days - Center
south and center west Brazil will experience seasonal drying through the next two weeks
- Rio
Grande do Sul into southern Paraguay will be wet through Monday with frequent waves of rain saturating the soil - Spain,
Portugal and North Africa will continue dry biased through the coming week, although there is still some potential for rain in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia late next week and into the following weekend - Some
relief from recent drying is expected next week in northern Kazakhstan and neighboring areas of Russia’s southeastern New Lands; A new ridge of high pressure is likely after that - India’s
weather will be more normal over the next ten days - Australia’s
rainfall over the next ten days will be greatest in coastal areas - South
Africa will be trending wetter in the east - Indonesia
and Malaysia will remain sufficiently wet biased - Tropical
cyclone will form in eastern Bay of Bengal next week and move toward rice and sugarcane areas of Myanmar
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Friday,
May 5:
- FAO
World Food Price Index - April
U.S. jobs report - Malaysia’s
May 1-5 palm oil export data - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - HOLIDAY:
Japan, South Korea, Thailand
Monday,
May 8:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - US
winter wheat condition, 4pm - US
planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm - HOLIDAY:
UK, France
Tuesday,
May 9:
- Canada’s
StatCan to release wheat, soybean, canola and barley reserves data - China’s
first batch of April trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
Wednesday,
May 10:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Malaysian
Palm Oil Board’s data for May output, exports and stockpiles - Malaysia’s
May 1-10 palm oil exports - Sugar
production and cane crush data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
Thursday,
May 11:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Brazil’s
Conab issues production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans - New
Zealand Food Prices - EARNINGS:
GrainCorp
Friday,
May 12:
- USDA’s
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm - China’s
agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
CME
made some changes to soybean oil and KC wheat spread margins
https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2023/05/Chadv23-140.html
US
Change In Nonfarm Payrolls Apr: 253K (est 185K; prev 236K)
US
Unemployment Rate Apr: 3.4% (est 3.6%; prev 3.5%)
US
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) Apr: 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 0.3%)
US
Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) Apr: 4.4% (est 4.2%; prev 4.2%)
US
Change In Private Payrolls Apr: 230K (est 160K; prev 189K)
US
Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Apr: 11K (est -5K; prev -1K)
US
Average Weekly Hours All Employees Apr: 34.4 (est 34.4; prev 34.4)
US
Labour Force Participation Rate Apr: 62.6% (est 62.6%; prev 62.6%)
US
Underemployment Rate Apr: 6.6% (prev 6.7%)
Canadian
Net Change In Employment Apr: 41.4K (est 20.0K; prev 34.7K)
Canadian
Unemployment Rate Apr: 5.0% (est 5.1%; prev 5.0%)
Canadian
Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees (Y/Y) Apr: 5.2% (est 4.8%; prev 5.2%)
Canadian
Participation Rate Apr: 65.6% (prev 65.6%)
Canadian
Full Time Employment Change Apr: -6.2K (prev 18.8K)
Canadian
Part Time Employment Change Apr: 47.6K (prev 15.9K)
·
CBOT
corn futures are higher for the third consecutive day on short covering and rising Black Sea tensions. Open interest yesterday was up nearly 21,000 contracts.
·
(Bloomberg Intelligence) — China’s pork prices could recover on falling slaughter rates as elevated soybean meal prices discourage farmers from fattening pigs. Pork might revisit the top of its price range before 2019’s African
swine fever outbreak, which could lift WH Group’s China pork income. Soybean meal demand might weaken.
·
French corn plantings reached 59 percent as of May 1, up from 44 percent previous week. Weather remains good.
Export
developments.
-
Algeria
seeks up to 140,000 tons of corn for May through August shipment. Late last week they bought an undisclosed amount of milling wheat.
·
Soybeans are higher led by soybean oil on positioning ahead of the weekend and a rally in palm oil futures. Meal is near flat. News was light.
·
The Brazilian real in cash is below 5 again and this may slow farmer selling.
·
Argentina soybean and corn crop conditions fell one point each last week. The BA grains exchange warned of another downward reduction to the soybean and corn crop, currently forecast at 22.5 and 36.0 million tons, respectively.
·
(Reuters) – Ukraine, a leading European oilseeds grower, is likely to harvest up to 3.6 million tons of rapeseed in 2023, up from about 3.2 million tons in 2022, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Friday. A report
by the consultancy said that the larger harvested area was the main reason for the higher projection. Farmers sowed a record 1.5 million hectares of rapeseed last year, but about 17% of the area was not harvested owing to the Russian invasion.
·
Polls for Malaysian April ending stocks call for a 11-month low.
·
Palm oil futures gained 7.8% for the week.
·
After a one day holiday, Malaysia palm futures increased 176 ringgit to 3601, and cash increased $47.50 to $877.50/ton.
·
China May soybean futures were up 0.9%, meal up 0.2%, SBO up 0.3% and palm oil futures up 2.1%.
·
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were 5-20 euros higher from this time yesterday morning and meal $1.00-$5.00 euros lower.
·
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 81 points this morning (13 higher for the week to date) and meal $0.20 short ton lower ($0.20 lower for the week).
Export
Developments
·
US wheat futures are higher as Black Sea grain export deal talks began today. Geopolitical tensions remain high after Russia accused the US that they were behind the Kremlin drone strike. FOA’s food price index for the month of
April was up for the first time in a year.