FI Morning Grain Comments 05/04/23

PDF attached

Good
morning. 

No
surprises in today’s USDA export sales report. After yesterday’s FOMC increase of 25 basis points to 5.00-5.25%, highest since September 2007, the US Fed signaled a possible pause hike in rates over the short term. WTI crude oil was down sharply again overnight
only to pare most losses by early morning. The USD was higher by about 4 points. Gold recently hit a one month high. Rain fell across West Texas, Texas Panhandle and western and southern Oklahoma Wednesday and the same areas will see rain on and off over the
next two weeks. The upper Plains and Midwest will see two precipitation events through mid-next week, slightly delaying planting progress. US wheat and corn futures eased after surging yesterday from renewed Black Sea shipping concerns. The soybean complex
is mixed. Soybeans and soybean meal are lower while soybean oil turned higher (talk of an increase in biofuel feedstock demand). Malaysia’s financial markets were closed for a public holiday. China is back from on holiday and the soybean complex was little
changed from last Friday. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 73 points this morning and meal $1.10 short ton lower.
Algeria
is in for corn and soybean meal today. 

Fund
estimates as of May 3

Weather

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 4, 2023

• Additional
  rain fell in portions of West Texas, the U.S. Texas Panhandle and western and southern Oklahoma Wednesday and early today with a number of areas reporting more than 1.00 inch of moisture in the Texas Panhandle and near Lubbock, Texas
• Other
  showers and thunderstorms will occur periodically over the next two weeks with mostly light rain resulting
• Less
  rain was advertised for Western Australia in the next ten days in today’s forecast model runs than advertised earlier this week
• Interior
  Western Australia needs rain for improved wheat, barley and canola planting and emergence conditions  
• India’s
  weather is drier over the next two weeks and a little warmer bringing back a more typical May weather outlook after unusual rainfall last weekend and earlier this week
• A
  tropical cyclone is still advertised to threaten Myanmar next week, although the system has not formed in the Bay of Bengal yet leaving opportunity for the storm’s predicted path to change in the next couple of days
• Rain
  has been reduced from northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia for next week with only light showers of limited significance expected. Some rain totals may reach over 0.50 inch with most of that occurring early in the week
  
• Central
  Europe rainfall next week may be heavy impacting Italy, the western Balkan Countries and areas north into southern Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia and western Hungary
  
• Northeastern
  Europe and the western CIS will experience frost and freezes Friday into Monday, but the impact on agriculture will be low except for some flowering fruit trees may experience additional damage after experiencing similar conditions last weekend and earlier
  this week in portions of eastern Europe
• Eastern
  South Africa is a little wetter in today’s outlook for next week than suggested earlier this week
• No
  change of significance was suggested for Argentina or Brazil; heavy rain is still expected from Rio Grande do Sul to Paraguay and far northeastern Argentina Friday into Monday while net drying occurs in most other areas
• Rain
  will fall from northeastern Cordoba to Entre Rios and Uruguay later today into Friday with 0.50 to 1.50 inches resulting
• GFS
  model does suggest a cold front from Argentina may reach into center west and center south Brazil around mid-month and if that verifies it may produce some welcome rain to the Safrinha crop areas of Mato Grosso and Goias that are drying out
• West-central
  and southwestern U.S. Plains will experience sporadic rainfall – most of which will occur next week
• U.S.
  upper Midwest and northeastern Plains are still advertised to be wet Friday night into Monday and again during the middle to latter part of next week restricting drying time and adding more delay to spring and summer crop planting
  
• Lower
  eastern U.S. Midwest precipitation will be lightest relative to normal in the coming ten days along with a few middle and southern Atlantic Coastal states
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest will become favorably moist next ten days
• U.S.
  Delta and eastern Texas to southeastern Kansas, Missouri and parts of Illinois will trend wetter late next week
• Canada’s
  Southwestern Prairies drought region is not likely to get drought busting rain, but some showers are possible over the weekend and again later next week