FI Morning Grain Comments 05/03/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

WTI
crude oil is down sharply again, back below $70/barrel. The USD was 38 points lower and US equities mostly higher. US Fed interest rate decision is due out later today.
25
point increase is what the trade is looking for. The US weather forecast improved from that of yesterday. The lower Great plains will see rain through the end of the week. The southwestern areas of the Midwest will be wet Thursday before moving into the south
central areas Friday. Black
Sea headlines again influencing wheat prices. Russia, Turkey and Ukraine agreed to meet May 5 over the grain deal. Russia will hold talks with United Nations representatives in Moscow on the same date.  Earlier July Chicago wheat traded at a fresh multi-month
low. Oklahoma’s wheat industry conducted a crop tour and pegged the 2023 yield at 24.6 bushels per acre and production at 54.3 million bushels. That would be the lowest yield and production since 2014. Last year was 28.0 yield and 68.6 million bushel production.
Egypt’s GASC bought 655,000 tons of wheat for June 10-30 and/or July 1-20, 2023, shipment. CBOT corn futures are lower with the July making fresh multi-month lows (since January 2022). Brazil see rain over the next week, benefiting second corn crop development.
The soybean complex is lower on widespread commodity selling. July soybeans are trading near its recent contract low made FH March. July soybean meal is back below its 200-day MA of $426.80. Soybean oil is mainly lower for a $2.00+ barrel drop in crude oil.
Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 11 points this morning and meal $5.80 short ton lower. A Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be down 4,000 thousand barrels to 963k (930-980 range) from the previous week and stocks up 117,000
barrels to 24.423 million.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of May 2

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MAY 3, 2023

• Returning
  wet weather is expected in the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota and Manitoba, Canada beginning this weekend and lasting through much of next week resulting in a setback to this week’s drying trend
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat rainfall in Nebraska and parts of Kansas continues overdone in today’s forecast model runs, although the ridiculous amount of rain advertised by the GFS model Tuesday for the coming ten days was greatly reduced overnight which was a necessary
  change
• West-central
  and southwestern parts of the Plains will continue to receive sporadic rainfall of lighter than usual intensity
• A
  favorable mix of weather is expected in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states over the next two weeks  
• West
  Texas cotton areas received a few showers overnight, but resulting rainfall was rarely more than 0.30 inch and additional showers are possible periodically during the next two weeks – no drought busting rainfall is expected
• Canada’s
  Prairies will experience some increase in shower activity this weekend and next week, but big soakings of rain are unlikely
• Argentina
  will continue dry biased for much of the next ten days, but the situation will be good for summer crop maturation and harvesting; rain will soon be needed for wheat planting, though
• Brazil
  weather will remain relatively normal for this time of year with no risk of damaging cold and net drying for many center west and center south crop areas
• Southwestern
  Europe and northern Africa will continue drier than usual for another week, but there will be “some” potential for rain next week in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia
• Other
  areas in Europe and the western CIS will see a mix of rain and sunshine; although, another bout of cold air is expected from Scandinavia into Ukraine, Belarus and northwestern Russia late this week into early next week
  
• India
  will continue cooler than usual with a few more showers and thunderstorms than usual during the next ten days
• Returning
  cool air to Xinjiang Jiang will set back a much needed warming trend for a while this weekend and next week
• Russia’s
  southern eastern New Lands region and northern Kazakhstan will receive some rain next week, but net drying is expected until then
• China’s
  rapeseed country needs drier weather to promote maturation and harvesting
• Western
  Australia will receive some badly needed rain this weekend and again next week
  

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
May 3:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• HOLIDAY:
  China,
  Japan, Vietnam

Thursday,
May 4:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Commodity Price
• HOLIDAY:
  Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh

Friday,
May 5:

• FAO
  World Food Price Index
• Malaysia’s
  May 1-5 palm oil export data