PDF attached
News
is light. Good rains are seen expanding west for US winter wheat areas. Renewed concerns over the extension of the Black Sea grain deal is underpinning selected wheat contracts. Improving US weather is capping gains for KC type wheat, pressuring corn, and
back month soybeans. Nearby soybeans are higher from spreading and higher meal. Soybean oil is trading lower from weaker energy prices. The USD was 20 points lower. There were no export developments over the weekend. Malaysia is on holiday today, returning
Tuesday. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 30 points this morning and meal $3.00 short ton lower.
World
Weather Inc.
WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 24, 2023
- Some
frost and freeze damage may have occurred in Nebraska, northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado Sunday morning when temperatures fell to the upper teens and lower 20s Fahrenheit - The
impact of the cold is not known, but temperatures were colder than expected into central Kansas and perhaps cold enough to induce damage to some of the crop’s reproductive potential - Rain
is expected in the central two-thirds of hard red winter wheat country by Thursday of this week - The
moisture will be welcome and help improve topsoil moisture for future crop development - Limited
rainfall is expected in the far southwest of hard red winter wheat areas and in West Texas cotton areas as well as in Nebraska and north-central Kansas - Other
areas in Texas, the U.S. Delta and southeastern states will benefit from alternating periods of rain and sun this week and next week - Eastern
Canada’s Prairies and the northeastern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest will see a few more periods of rain, drizzle and light snowfall this week while a part of the southwestern Prairies remains drier than usual - Argentina
and Brazil weather for the next two weeks has changed little since Friday with a good balance or rain and sunshine likely - Southwestern
Spain, Portugal and North Africa will remain drier than usual - Russia’s
Ural Mountains region and a part of the eastern New Lands will experience dry and warm weather over the next ten days - China
received significant rain during the weekend - India
may trend a little too wet in various portions of the nation during the next two weeks as rainfall becomes more widespread and enhanced - Southern
Australia will get some showers, but more rain will be needed to raise soil moisture for good wheat, barley and canola emergence and establishment - Southeast
Asia rainfall will be increasing this week. - Thailand
sugarcane areas received some welcome rain during the weekend, but mostly in easternmost locations - Cotton
areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso are too dry
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Bloomberg
Ag calendar
Monday,
April 24:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - US
planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm - MARS
monthly report on EU crop conditions - US
winter wheat condition, 4pm - Cane
crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative) - HOLIDAY:
Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan
Tuesday,
April 25:
- Malaysia’s
April 1-25 palm oil export data - Argus
Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 1 - Commodity
Trading Week conference, London, day 1 - US
poultry slaughter; cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Indonesia
Wednesday,
April 26:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Euro
Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, Romania, day 1 - Argus
Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 2 - Commodity
Trading Week conference, London, day 2 - Canada’s
StatCan to release seeded area data for wheat, barley, canola and soybeans - Brazil’s
Conab to publish cane, sugar and ethanol production data
Thursday,
April 27:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Euro
Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 2 - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - Argus
Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 3
Friday,
April 28:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - Euro
Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 3 - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - US
agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm
Saturday,
April 29:
- Vietnam’s
coffee, rice and rubber export data
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Commitment
of Traders
Funds
were less long for corn, soybeans and soybean oil while less short than expected for wheat and more short than expected for soybean oil. We don’t see a price impact from the weekly COT report.
Canada
March Wholesale Trade Most Likely Fell 0.4% From Previous Month – StatsCan Flash Estimate
·
Lack of news is driving corn prices lower but higher selected US weather contracts are limiting losses.
·
US energy products are lower, USD down about 32 points and US equities slightly lower.
·
Russia may export 60 MMT tons of grain this season, a record, according to the Russian Grain Union. Most of that is wheat.
Export
developments.
·
None reported. Last week SK was active buying corn from SA.
·
Mixed trade in soybeans with nearby contracts higher. The bull spreading might reflect tight spot supplies bias US ECB, and good crush rates. The export market is quiet. Back month pressure may reflect Brazil harvest pressure
and competitiveness for new crop US soybean exports along with slowing Chinese demand. Soybean meal is higher on renewed meal/oil spreading. Lower US energy markets are weighing on soybean oil.
·
News is light.
·
AgRural reported 92 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop harvested, one point above a year ago.
·
In Argentina, there was a truck strike launched, affecting most areas bias upriver and southern arteries.
·
Malaysia is on holiday today, returning Tuesday.
·
China May soybean futures were up 0.1%, meal down 1.2%, SBO down 1.5% and palm oil futures down 2.3%.
·
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 5 euros lower this time Friday morning and meal 1.00-6.50 euros lower.
·
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 30 points this morning and meal $3.00 short ton lower.
Export
Developments
-
None
reported.
·
US wheat futures are mixed, in part to lack of direction and headline trading.
·
Russia over the weekend again said the Black Sea grain export deal was hurting their grain exports and warned they may pull out if G7 countries ban exports. This comes after the Russian Grain Union projected a record 60 million
ton Russia export campaign for 2022-23, including 50 million tons of wheat.
·
The lack of global wheat export developments over the weekend may have spooked the market as major importers are becoming more cautious with wheat commitments out of the Black Sea region.
·
September Paris wheat futures higher by 0.25 euro. This is helping high protein MN wheat futures. Ongoing flooding concerns from additional recent precipitation across the northern Great Plains is also supporting MN futures.
·
Ukraine’s AgMin reported grain exports so far for the 2022-23 season stood at 40.7 million tons, compared to about 45.7MMT year ago.
·
Argentina’s wheat planted area may reach 6.7 million hectares for 2023-24, 600,000 hectares above the current crop season.
Export
Developments.
·
China plans to sell 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 26.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.
·
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.
Rice/Other
Terry Reilly Senior Commodity Analyst – Grain and Oilseeds |
Futures International One Lincoln Center 18W140 Butterfield Rd. Suite 1450 Oakbrook terrace, Il. 60181 |
Work: 312.604.1366 ICE IM: treilly1 Skype IM: fi.treilly |
treilly@futures-int.com
|
DISCLAIMER: The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Futures International, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. This communication may contain links to third party websites which are not under the control of FI and FI is not responsible for their content. Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Futures International, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. Futures International, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. |