FI Morning Grain Comments 04/24/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

News
is light. Good rains are seen expanding west for US winter wheat areas. Renewed concerns over the extension of the Black Sea grain deal is underpinning selected wheat contracts. Improving US weather is capping gains for KC type wheat, pressuring corn, and
back month soybeans. Nearby soybeans are higher from spreading and higher meal. Soybean oil is trading lower from weaker energy prices. The USD was 20 points lower. There were no export developments over the weekend. Malaysia is on holiday today, returning
Tuesday. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 30 points this morning and meal $3.00 short ton lower.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 21

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 24, 2023

• Some
  frost and freeze damage may have occurred in Nebraska, northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado Sunday morning when temperatures fell to the upper teens and lower 20s Fahrenheit
• The
  impact of the cold is not known, but temperatures were colder than expected into central Kansas and perhaps cold enough to induce damage to some of the crop’s reproductive potential
• Rain
  is expected in the central two-thirds of hard red winter wheat country by Thursday of this week
• The
  moisture will be welcome and help improve topsoil moisture for future crop development
• Limited
  rainfall is expected in the far southwest of hard red winter wheat areas and in West Texas cotton areas as well as in Nebraska and north-central Kansas
• Other
  areas in Texas, the U.S. Delta and southeastern states will benefit from alternating periods of rain and sun this week and next week
• Eastern
  Canada’s Prairies and the northeastern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest will see a few more periods of rain, drizzle and light snowfall this week while a part of the southwestern Prairies remains drier than usual
• Argentina
  and Brazil weather for the next two weeks has changed little since Friday with a good balance or rain and sunshine likely
• Southwestern
  Spain, Portugal and North Africa will remain drier than usual
• Russia’s
  Ural Mountains region and a part of the eastern New Lands will experience dry and warm weather over the next ten days
• China
  received significant rain during the weekend
• India
  may trend a little too wet in various portions of the nation during the next two weeks as rainfall becomes more widespread and enhanced
• Southern
  Australia will get some showers, but more rain will be needed to raise soil moisture for good wheat, barley and canola emergence and establishment
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall will be increasing this week.
• Thailand
  sugarcane areas received some welcome rain during the weekend, but mostly in easternmost locations
• Cotton
  areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso are too dry

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
April 24:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
• MARS
  monthly report on EU crop conditions
• US
  winter wheat condition, 4pm
• Cane
  crush and sugar production data by Brazil’s Unica (tentative)
• HOLIDAY:
  Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan

Tuesday,
April 25:

• Malaysia’s
  April 1-25 palm oil export data
• Argus
  Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 1
• Commodity
  Trading Week conference, London, day 1
• US
  poultry slaughter; cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Indonesia

Wednesday,
April 26:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Euro
  Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, Romania, day 1
• Argus
  Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 2
• Commodity
  Trading Week conference, London, day 2
• Canada’s
  StatCan to release seeded area data for wheat, barley, canola and soybeans
• Brazil’s
  Conab to publish cane, sugar and ethanol production data

Thursday,
April 27:

• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Euro
  Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 2
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Argus
  Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 3

Friday,
April 28:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Euro
  Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 3
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• US
  agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Saturday,
April 29:

• Vietnam’s
  coffee, rice and rubber export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Commitment
of Traders

Funds
were less long for corn, soybeans and soybean oil while less short than expected for wheat and more short than expected for soybean oil.  We don’t see a price impact from the weekly COT report.

 

 

 

Macros

Canada
March Wholesale Trade Most Likely Fell 0.4% From Previous Month – StatsCan Flash Estimate

 

Corn

·        
Lack of news is driving corn prices lower but higher selected US weather contracts are limiting losses.

·        
US energy products are lower, USD down about 32 points and US equities slightly lower.

·        
Russia may export 60 MMT tons of grain this season, a record, according to the Russian Grain Union. Most of that is wheat.

 

Export
developments.

·        
None reported. Last week SK was active buying corn from SA.

 

 

Soybeans

·        
Mixed trade in soybeans with nearby contracts higher. The bull spreading might reflect tight spot supplies bias US ECB, and good crush rates. The export market is quiet. Back month pressure may reflect Brazil harvest pressure
and competitiveness for new crop US soybean exports along with slowing Chinese demand. Soybean meal is higher on renewed meal/oil spreading. Lower US energy markets are weighing on soybean oil.

·        
News is light.

·        
AgRural reported 92 percent of Brazil’s soybean crop harvested, one point above a year ago.

·        
In Argentina, there was a truck strike launched, affecting most areas bias upriver and southern arteries.

·        
Malaysia is on holiday today, returning Tuesday.

·        
China May soybean futures were up 0.1%, meal down 1.2%, SBO down 1.5% and palm oil futures down 2.3%.

·        
Nearby Rotterdam vegetable oils were unchanged to 5 euros lower this time Friday morning and meal 1.00-6.50 euros lower.

·        
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 30 points this morning and meal $3.00 short ton lower.

 

Export
Developments

• None
  reported.

 

Wheat

·        
US wheat futures are mixed, in part to lack of direction and headline trading.

·        
Russia over the weekend again said the Black Sea grain export deal was hurting their grain exports and warned they may pull out if G7 countries ban exports. This comes after the Russian Grain Union projected a record 60 million
ton Russia export campaign for 2022-23, including 50 million tons of wheat.

·        
The lack of global wheat export developments over the weekend may have spooked the market as major importers are becoming more cautious with wheat commitments out of the Black Sea region.

·        
September Paris wheat futures higher by 0.25 euro. This is helping high protein MN wheat futures. Ongoing flooding concerns from additional recent precipitation across the northern Great Plains is also supporting MN futures.

·        
Ukraine’s AgMin reported grain exports so far for the 2022-23 season stood at 40.7 million tons, compared to about 45.7MMT year ago.

·        
Argentina’s wheat planted area may reach 6.7 million hectares for 2023-24, 600,000 hectares above the current crop season.

 

Export
Developments.

·        
China plans to sell 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 26.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.

·        
Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·        
None reported