FI Morning Grain Comments 04/21/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USD
is lower, WTI crude oil higher and US equities mixed. Weather, declining Brazil soybean premiums,
and positioning is in focus for the day. The morning weather forecast slightly improved for the US Midwest and Delta. The northwestern Midwest will see rain today and southeastern areas through Saturday. The Great Plains will see precipitation across the northern
areas today and eastern areas of CO, KS, OK and TX into early next week. Brazil is still slated to see rain in the northern areas over the next week, beneficial for the second corn crop. The CBOT soybean complex is lower for the third consecutive day from
slowing US exports, US weather replenishing soil moisture across the majority of the US ahead of the bulk of planting season, and lower outside related markets. Corn futures are lower, but losses are limited from a higher trade in wheat (technical buying).

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 20

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 21, 2023

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will have three opportunities for rain during the next ten days
• Nearly
  all areas will get rain, though many areas will have need for follow up rain especially in the southwest
• West
  Texas rain potentials have improved for the coming week to ten days and the moisture that falls will improve planting conditions for cotton, sorghum and corn – most of which begins next month
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will be wet or become that way in the next seven days slowing fieldwork
• U.S.
  Midwest temperatures will be quite cool at times this weekend and next week with some periodic rainfall as well resulting in a slow planting pace, but the rain volume will be lighter than usual.
  
• This
  week’s rain and snowstorm in Canada’s eastern Prairies, the upper U.S. Midwest and Red River Basin will end today and early Saturday with the next large precipitation event expected late next week and into the following weekend
• Next
  week’s storm system may be the last in this series with drier and warmer weather to follow
• Southwestern
  Canada’s Prairies will continue drier than usual in the next ten days, but some precipitation is possible
• South
  America weather appears to be mostly good, especially if rain falls in Mato Grosso as advertised
• Southwestern
  Europe and North Africa will remain drier than usual
• Some
  drying in Kazakhstan and a few eastern Russia spring wheat areas will be closely monitored, although the region is in great shape for spring planting
• China’s
  southern rapeseed and southeastern rice areas will continue quite wet over the next two weeks
• Southern
  Australia is advertised to receive some timely rainfall over the next week as a frontal system moves from west to east; the moisture will be good for future wheat, barley and canola planting
• South
  Africa will continue dry biased
• India
  will remain cooler biased with limited rain in this first week of the outlook; showers may increase in the last days of April and continue in early May to possibly disrupt harvesting
• Mali
  to Burkina Faso to remain drier biased for another five to six days and then some showers are possible
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall will be increasing in Indonesia and Malaysia and possibly in a part of the mainland production areas
• Dryness
  in eastern Mexico continues to be eased by periodic rainfall

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Friday,
April 21:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop condition report
• US
  cattle on feed, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Brazil, Indonesia

Monday,
April 24: