FI Morning Grain Comments 04/17/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USD
was up 30 points, WTI lower by 49 cents and US equities mixed. NOPA US crush is due out at 11 am (estimates in the soybean section). Inspections and crop progress are also out later today. CBOT soybeans are higher led by strength in soybean oil. Egypt’s GASC
seeks an unspecified amount of international vegetable oils on April 19. Soybean meal is higher, but gains are limited on product spreading. Palm oil futures rebounded on bottom picking, weaker ringgit and a draw in stocks reported by Indonesia late last week.
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 10 points this morning and meal $0.70 short ton higher. US corn futures are mostly higher with light profit taking in bull spreads. US wheat futures surged at the open Sunday night only to pare gains, and trade
lower by early morning for higher protein type wheat. Chicago wheat is higher on short covering. There is still uncertainty over an extension of the Black Sea grain deal set to expire mid next month.

 

Fund
estimates as of April 14

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 17, 2023

• Snowstorm
  in eastern Canada’s Prairies Tuesday through Thursday of this week will produce 0.50 to 1.50 inches of moisture and local totals to 2.00 inches with 6-15 inches of snow and local totals of 15-20 inches – some weakening of the storm is expected
• Southwestern
  Canada’s Prairies will remain drier biased through the end of this month
• Freezes
  are still expected in hard red winter wheat areas this coming weekend occurring as far south as Oklahoma
• Freezes
  will also occur in the Midwest, northern Delta and as far south as Kentucky with frost in Tennessee late in this coming weekend
• West-central
  and southwestern U.S. Plains may get some showers as colder air arrives late this week and there “may” be some potential for showers again as warmer air returns next week
• This
  will include both hard red winter wheat areas and corn sorghum and cotton
• Moisture
  totals are not advertised to be very great today, but the orientation of the weekend cold and associated high pressure system will dictate the rain potential
• U.S.
  Red River Basin of the North flooding may not be as bad as feared if precipitation will be limited during the next few weeks
• Cold
  temperatures in the coming ten days will help slow the remaining snow melt
• Canada’s
  Red River Basin and the Assiniboia River Basin flood potentials may worsen with the onset of this week’s significant snowstorm and the snow water equivalency that will run off into the Red River in Manitoba eventually
• No
  change in dryness was suggested for Spain, Portugal or North Africa during the next ten days, despite a few showers expected
  
• Favorable
  crop weather is expected in most areas of the world; including China, India, Australia, South Africa, Europe (away from the southwest) and Ukraine, Belarus and Russia’s Southern Region
• Argentina
  will be drier biased in the coming week favoring summer crop harvesting; some showers will occur in days 8-10
• Brazil’s
  Safrinha corn south of Mato Grosso will get rain through mid-week this week while other areas are drying down
• Most
  of the late week this week and next week will be drier biased throughout Brazil
• Mali
  and Burkina Faso cotton areas will remain dry

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
April 17:

• USDA
  export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
• US
  planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
• US
  winter wheat condition, 4pm
• New
  Zealand food prices

Tuesday,
April 18:

• China’s
  2nd batch of March trade data, including agricultural imports
• China’s
  first quarter pork output and inventory levels
• New
  Zealand global dairy trade auction

Wednesday,
April 19:

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Brazil’s
  Conab releases cane, sugar and ethanol output data
• USDA
  total milk production, 3pm
• HOLIDAY:
  Indonesia, Bangladesh