FI Morning Grain Comments 04/13/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

USDA
24-H: Private exporters reported sales of 327,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China. Of the total, 191,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year and 136,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

 

 

USD
is lower, WTI crude lower and US equities higher. Soybeans are higher from strong soybean meal futures while soybean oil is lower following weaker palm oil and other related vegetable oil markets. South American soybean meal prices in Rotterdam are sharply
higher from this time yesterday morning. USDA export sales for the soybean complex was at or below expectations.
Brazil’s
Conab reported an upward revision to soybean production by 2.2 million tons to 153.63 million tons, near trade expectations.
Offshore
values were leading SBO higher by about 54 points this morning and meal $2.80 short ton higher. Corn futures are mixed on light follow through bull spreading. 
The
Conab Brazil corn production was disappointing as output increased only 200,000 tons from the previous month to 124.88 million tons, 2.7 million tons below a Bloomberg trade guess.
US
wheat futures are lower with a reversal in bull spreads. Profit taking is likely after prices were higher over the past three consecutive days. Algeria’s durum wheat import tender results should be out today. 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 12

 

 

Weather

 

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 13, 2023

• Fort
  Lauderdale, Fl. reported 25.60 inches of rain Wednesday surpassing its previous one day record of 14.59 inches set April 25, 1979 (22.60 inches in 7 hours)
  
• Intense
  tropical cyclone Ilsa was moving into northwestern Australia today producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 mph offshore earlier today and will come inland with speeds near 143 mph. The storm was 74 miles north northeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia
  at 1030 GMT today and its center was expected to pass 81 miles to the east of the port city around 1400 GMT today. Hurricane force wind speeds were occurring out 40-45 miles from center of the storm. The storm is a Category 4 hurricane equivalent storm based
  on the Saffir Simpson Scale
• European
  forecast model produces a deep upper level low pressure center in the center of the United States April 20-22 that could bring some notable cooling to the central and eastern parts of nation and significant rain to the upper Midwest, but this feature seems
  overdone and is not matched by the Ensemble or by any of the recent GFS model runs
• 00z
  GFS model run did not have this feature, but the latest 06z GFS model is much colder in the eastern half of the nation for April
  
• U.S.
  southeastern states will experience another wave of significant rain later today and Friday with some follow up rain during the weekend keeping the ground quite wet
• U.S.
  Delta will not be quite so wet
• U.S.
  west-central and southwestern Plains will remain drier biased for the next ten days
• U.S.
  wheat areas in Nebraska and Kansas may get rain in the second week of the forecast – lightest in the west
• Rain
  and wet snow in U.S. Red River Basin of the North Friday and Saturday will aggravate flooding resulting from melting snow
• Snow
  and rain today and Friday in southern Saskatchewan, Canada will improve topsoil moisture in one of the Prairies driest areas, but no relief from dryness is likely in southern or east-central Alberta for much of the next ten days
• Mato
  Grosso, Brazil rainfall with be periodic, although light in the next ten days while Safrinha crop areas to the south in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo are plenty wet
• Argentina
  soil moisture is low again in central parts of the nation and rainfall should be limited for the next ten days in some of the drier areas favoring crop maturation and harvest progress
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin and areas southward to the coastal provinces will experience waves of  heavy rain next week that may lead to some flooding; this would impact rice and southern rapeseed areas as well as a few other crops like sugarcane, citrus and minor
  corn
• Yunnan,
  China remains in drought with little change likely over the next ten days
• Spain
  and North Africa dryness will continue over the next ten days
• Ukraine,
  Russia’s Southern Region and Kazakhstan will receive rain through the weekend maintaining favorable moisture for winter and spring crops, though fieldwork will be on hold for a while
• Cotton
  areas from Mali to Burkina Faso and northern Ivory Coast will be drier than usual for the next ten days
• Lighter
  than usual rainfall continues in Mainland areas of Southeast Asia; including parts of Thailand and Vietnam
• Negative
  phase of Madden Julian Oscillation will suppress rainfall in parts of Indonesia and Malaysia, although it will not be dry

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
April 13:

• China’s
  1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
• USDA
  weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am<