FI Morning Grain Comments 04/11/23

Apr 11, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
report day.  The USD is lower by 45 points, WTI crude 45 cents higher and US equities mixed. Soybeans are higher on positioning ahead of the USDA report. Reuters noted not much was initially sold by Argentina producers under the new soybean dollar and that
might be helping CBOT soybean meal. Soybean oil is losing ground to meal. Corn and wheat are on the defensive despite a downgrade in US winter wheat conditions. USDA is expected to make reductions to the US soybean and corn carryout projections later this
morning while wheat may see a modest change. SA soybean and corn production is expected to be lower for Argentina.
Offshore
values were leading SBO higher by about 9 points this morning and meal $3.10 short ton higher.

 

 

Fund
estimates as of April 10

 

 

Weather

Map Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR APRIL 11, 2023

  • Status
    quo conditions for much of the world today
  • Dryness
    is still a worry in Spain, Portugal, North Africa and U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains and portions of Canada’s Prairies
  • Some
    snow and rain will fall in the northwestern and southeastern Canada Prairies, but the heart of the region is not likely to see much dryness relief
  • Aggressive
    snowmelt is under way in the upper U.S. Midwest and northeastern Plains as well as southeastern Canada’s Prairies where flooding is expected to evolve over the next few days
    • Rain
      and some wet snow will impact these areas Thursday into Saturday morning to aggravate the flood situation
  • Lighter
    than usual precipitation will continue over the next ten days in the lower U.S. Midwest where aggressive spring planting is expected especially after a few days of drying evolves
  • Argentina
    will receive limited precipitation for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvesting
  • Brazil
    rainfall will be sufficient to raise topsoil moisture for long term Safrinha corn and cotton use
    • Sugarcane
      and coffee areas in portions of center south Brazil may need some drier weather later this month
  • Weather
    in most of Europe (outside of the southwest), the CIS, China, India, Australia and South Africa is mostly favorable right now with little change likely
  • Tropical
    Cyclone 18S will move into northwestern Australia later this week and a disturbance near the Philippines will bring heavy rain to Luzon Island and possibly a part of Samar Island

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Tuesday,
April 11:

  • USDA’s
    World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE), 12pm
  • China’s
    agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report

Wednesday,
April 12:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • France
    agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates

Thursday,
April 13:

  • China’s
    1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Brazil’s
    CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly grains balance sheet
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Friday,
April 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • <