FI Morning Grain Comments 03/20/23

PDF attached

Good
morning.

Don’t
discount a higher trade today. Some outside related markets rebounded earlier this morning.

No
USDA 24-H announcements. The Black Sea export deal was officially extended over the weekend, for at least 60 days, and that is weighing on grains. Macros are leading US agriculture markets lower. Gold and other selected commodity markets are serving as a safe
haven. USD was down 35 points as of 8:25 am and WTI crude oil 48 cents lower. US equities were mixed. Some traders speculate the US Fed will hold off on raising interest rates over the near term. Malaysia June palm futures were down 135 ringgit to 3,785 and
June cash was down $20 at $920.00/ton. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 205 points this morning and meal $4.90 short ton lower.
The
morning weather forecast slightly improved for the US Midwest and Delta. Rains favor eastern KS & OK tomorrow, then OK and northeastern TX Thursday through Friday. Argentina’s Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios will see rain this week. Mato Grosso and Goias
will see rain this week, among other areas. Northeastern Brazil will see additional net drying.

CFTC
did not release a COT report on Friday. Our fund/managed money estimates as of March 17.

Weather

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 20, 2023

• Frost
  and freezes occurred in the Delta and southeastern United States overnight inducing damage to corn and wheat, although the area impacted was small and probably will not have a big impact on today’s markets
• Significant
  rain fell in southern Argentina during the weekend and central Argentina will get significant rain during mid-week this week
• Brazil’s
  Safrinha corn planting and soybean harvest progress likely advanced well during the weekend and more progress is likely this week from northern Rio Grande do Sul and southern Mato Grosso do Sul through Parana and Sao Paulo to southern Minas Gerais where the
  longer delays in fieldwork have occurred in the past few weeks
• U.S.
  weather has not changed much with drought to prevail in the southwestern Plains
• Southern
  Texas will have opportunity for rain this week, although much more will be needed
• California
  will get more rain and mountain snow raising the spring flood potential
• The
  Red River Basin of the North will receive more waves of snow during the next ten days and remain colder than usual raising the potential for flooding when warmer weather evolves later this season
• The
  U.S. Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states will remain plenty moist during the next ten days
• Some
  dryness relief is likely in the lower Delta and areas east into Florida, although more rain will be needed
• North
  Africa will continue drier than usual over the next ten days to two weeks raising stress for some dryland crops
• India
  received rain during the weekend raising concern over the quality of filling and maturing wheat, rapeseed, mustard and pulse crops as well as a few other
• More
  rain will fall in northern and eastern crop areas periodically during the next ten days further raising concern over crop conditions, although a widespread serious production cut is unlikely
• China
  will be wettest in the Yangtze River Basin and areas to the south during the coming ten days
  
• More
  than 6.00 inches of rain fell in the south-central parts of the Yangtze River Basin during the weekend
• China’s
  lower Yellow River Basin and North China Plain will need moisture soon to maintain a good outlook for spring crop development
• Australia
  rainfall will be greatest in the southeast this week, but some rain will reach into eastern summer crop areas during the weekend and next week.