FI Morning Grain Comments 03/17/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 191,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Two
weeks from today USDA will release the 2023 initial US planting survey and March 1 grain stocks. Look for positioning ahead of this report to gradually increase. Higher start to soybeans, soybean meal, corn, and wheat. Soybean oil is on the defensive from
lower WTI crude oil. A lower dollar is lending support to soybeans and grains. US equities are lower. Ongoing global economic recession concerns may keep equity and commodity prices on edge. The banking woes are not over after some major banks injected bank
deposits into First Republic Bank.

 

 

CFTC
updated their positions as of March 7. For corn, the legacy fund positions and managed money class unloaded a huge number of long contracts for corn, futures only, and futures & options combined, over a two-week period through March 7. Now that net long positions
are much smaller, there is room for traditional (legacy report) fund and money managers, to rebuild a long(er) position in corn.

 

Our
fund/managed money estimates as of March 16.

 

Weather

 

Last
seven days

 

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 17, 2023

• Rain
  is still projected for central Argentina Monday into Wednesday of next week with 0.75 to 2.50 inches likely with a few totals in excess of 3.00 inches possible especially from eastern Santa Fe into northern Uruguay and far southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
• Central
  Argentina is experiencing the worst of the drought conditions and the moisture next week will greatly help stop the decline in crop conditions, but it will come too late to seriously improve production
  
• Other
  areas in Argentina do not get as much moisture
• Brazil’s
  late Safrinha corn planting and soybean harvesting are advancing better from Parana to southern Minas Gerais and in some southern Mato Grosso do Sul locations because of less frequent and less significant rain
  
• This
  pattern will prevail through mid-week next week before rain increases once again
• Drought
  stricken areas of the U.S. west-central and southwestern Plains will not get meaningful relief in the next ten days
• South
  Texas may get some needed rain early next week
• West
  Texas remains dry during much of the next ten days
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta, southeastern states and far western U.S. will continue to experience frequent precipitation
• Algeria
  and Tunisia rainfall will be greatest in the last week of this month and will offer a little relief from recent drying
• West-central
  Africa coffee and cocoa areas will get sufficient rain to support flowering
• No
  change in the China forecast occurred over night with the Yangtze River Basin and areas to the south trending wetter
• East-central
  China received some significant rain Thursday bolstering soil moisture in the northern Yangtze River Basin rapeseed areas and benefiting some southern wheat areas as well
• India’s
  unsettled weather pattern will bring rain to many areas through Tuesday of next week possibly raising a little concern over winter crop quality, but drier weather should arrive in time to protect most crops
• Greater
  rain in the southeast and far Eastern States will benefit rice and sugarcane
  
• Eastern
  Spain and the lower Danube River Basin will not get relief from dryness over the next ten days
• Eastern
  Australia summer crop areas will be largely dry for the next ten days
• South
  Africa rainfall is expected to be greatest in the south over the coming week

Source:
World Weather, INC.