FI Morning Grain Comments 03/16/23

Mar 16, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

European
meal prices are unavailable. Foreign prices are therefore not included.

 

USDA
export sales for the complex, corn and wheat were within expectations. Sorghum sales were a marketing year high.

 

WTI
is slightly higher, USD lower, and equities mixed. Ongoing global recession concerns and additional bank troubles are keeping traders nervous. Soybeans, nearby soybean meal, and soybean oil are higher on technical buying after soybeans and meal eased yesterday.
Soybean spreads are firm. Yesterday there were rumors China may have bought US soybeans. Palm oil futures fell to a one-month low. Spreads for corn futures continue to widen today with nearby positions higher and deferred months lower, after China confirmed
they large amount of corn from the US. US wheat futures fell early Thursday after rising to one-week highs yesterday.

 

 

 

 

Weather

Map Description automatically generated

 

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR MARCH 16, 2023

  • Cordoba
    to Entre Rios, Argentina and farther east to southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil is advertised to receive heavy rain early next week by both the GFS and ECMWF forecast models today
    • This
      event may be overdone, although it does have some potential to provide relief to chronic dryness in a portion of central Argentina
      • Confidence
        is low today and the official forecast will decrease the model advertised rain totals, but the system will be closely monitored
  • Outside
    of the above change in South America, Argentina and Brazil’s weather today relative to that advertised Wednesday has not changed
  • Not
    much change occurred in the U.S. either
    • Hard
      red winter wheat areas continue to miss most of the “significant” precipitation events over the next ten days
    • U.S.
      Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will be sufficiently wet for a while
    • Another
      storm in the upper Midwest will produce snow today with a follow up system possible during mid-week next week
    • California
      will continue to see waves of precipitation maintaining a very significant mountain snowpack and runoff potential
    • Flood
      potentials remain high in the Red River Basin of the North for next month because of a deep snowpack and very little melting likely over the next two weeks
  • Europe
    will go back into a dry and warm weather mode for the coming week to ten days with eastern parts of the continent driest and warmest
    • Rain
      will return to the west in the last days of March
  • China’s
    Yangtze River Basin will get abundant rain in the next ten days while other areas are mostly dry
  • Eastern
    Australia will continue dry biased for a while as will South Africa and portions of North Africa
  • India’s
    shower activity in the coming five to six days will raise some concern over crop quality

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
March 16:

  • IGC
    grains market report
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Eurasian
    agri- commodities conference, Kazakhstan, day 2
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports

Friday,
March 17:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report