FI Morning Grain Comments 03/02/23

PDF attached

There
were no USDA 24-hour sales. US export sales for soybeans, corn and wheat slowed from the previous week and were near the lower end of their respected trade range. Product sales were low. Doubts over a renewal of the Black Sea Grain export deal is sending EU
and US wheat & corn futures higher this morning after Russia said the West is burying the deal. The soybean complex is mixed. Soybean oil fell despite a rally in palm oil. A stronger USD, by 46 points, may limit any potential gains. WTI crude was up 37 cents
and US equities mixed. News is about the same. Look for a choppy trade.

Weather

Brazil
and Argentina rains were near expectations yesterday. Most of southern and central Brazil will see rain through the end of this week while net drying in the northeast may stress the corn crop. Argentina’s northern Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios will see
rain today before drying down through Monday. The far west of Argentina will see rain next week. Temperatures will remain hot resulting in net drying for many areas. The upper WCB saw snow yesterday. A wintery mix of showers bias south, and snow bias north
will sweep across the central and eastern US over the next three days. Rain should favor southeastern KS, OK, and northern and eastern TX through early Friday.

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE DAY

India
will continue warmer and drier than usual over the next two weeks, despite some showers for a little while next week

The
showers will not produce enough rain to counter evaporation, but they will help to put a cap on the warmer than usual temperatures
Production
potentials continue to slip lower in some of the unirrigated winter crop areas because of warmer than usual temperatures and no rain in the heart of the production region

Eastern
China is drying out, but temperatures have been mild enough recently to conserve soil moisture

Rapeseed
and some wheat areas will need rain later this month, but conditions for now are mostly good
Rice
and corn planting may require greater rainfall in southern China and some sugarcane and citrus crops would benefit from greater rain as well

Central
and southern Argentina will continue drier than usual for the next ten days

Today’s
Ensembles of GFS and ECMWF model runs have suggested increasing rainfall in the south after March 12, confidence is low, but there is more support for it now than there has been
Argentina
crops will see some relief if it rains, but mid-March is just too late for some production to improve

No
change in the Brazil forecast was noted overnight

Bahia,
northeastern Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo will continue drier than usual for the next two weeks
Timely
rainfall is expected in Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul
Rain
will fall too frequently in parts of Paraguay, Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul for aggressive harvesting and planting to take place

These
states need a break from the rainy weather, but not much is expected for a while

The
bottom line for Brazil will remain good for late season crops, although concern remains for Safrinha corn planting in Parana and immediate neighboring states because of rain and wet field delays. Safrinha corn yields may end up lower than usual because of
late planting. Mato Grosso crops are in relatively good condition. Monsoonal precipitation in Brazil is expected to continue into April.
U.S.
weather has not changed much today in an official capacity, but the GFS model run was wetter for the Great Plains and that may not verify very well

U.S.
Delta, Tennessee River Basin and central and eastern Midwest crop areas will see frequent rainfall over the next two weeks maintaining saturated field conditions and raising the potential for flooding
Red
River Basin of the North flood potentials are rising because of recent heavy snowfall and large amounts of water tied up in the snow that may cause significant runoff and flood issues later this spring if the snow melts too quickly
Another
snowstorm is expected in the northern Plains and upper Midwest Saturday night and Sunday with 2 to 6 inches and local totals over 8 inches possible impacting central and southern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota and central and northern Minnesota

These
same areas received 3 to 10 inches of snow and local totals to 14 inches Tuesday into Wednesday morning there was already substantial snow present across the region

California
precipitation is on hold for a few days, but will resume this weekend and continue into next week briefly maintaining a favorable soil moisture and runoff situation
South
Texas, northeastern Mexico and the Texas Coastal Bend will experience limited rainfall over the next week, but there will be some potential for rain in the second week of the outlook
U.S.
Gulf coastal crop areas from Louisiana to Florida and Georgia will have opportunity for rain a little later this month

The
moisture will be needed after an extended period without precipitation and warm biased conditions that accelerated net drying

U.S.
hard red winter wheat areas will continue drier biased in the southwestern Plains, but some snow and rain will impact northern and eastern crop areas during the week next week

Florida
is becoming too dry, although irrigation is being used to support crops

Rain
is need across the state and it will soon be needed in southern and southern Alabama as well

Canada’s
Prairies weather will be drier biased except in western and southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan where some waves of snow will occur through this first week of the outlook
North
America temperatures into early next week will be colder than usual in the western parts of both the United States and Canada while temperatures are warmer biased in the Midwest, Delta, southeastern states, southern Plains and the Middle and North Atlantic
Coast States

Some
of the cold in the west will begin spreading to the east in the second week of March including much of the Great Plains and part of the Midwest