FI Morning Grain Comments 02/16/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
reported private exporters reported sales of 128,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year.

 

US
equities sold off post US economic data. The USD was slightly higher, WTI higher, and gold lower. CBOT soybeans and meal are lower from follow through selling while soybean oil is steady to moderately higher on technical buying. Chicago wheat, nearby KC wheat
and corn are lower from fund long liquidation. Higher protein MN wheat is higher after fighting intensified across eastern Ukraine, dryness in the northern US Great Plains and spreading against Chicago.

 

Estimate
of fund positions

 

 

 

 

Weather

 

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 16, 2023

·       
Central Argentina’s best potential rain event is today and early Friday

o  
Rain has already evolved in a part of Cordoba and in a few neighboring areas of southern and western Santa Fe overnight and additional rain is expected today

·       
Most of Argentina’s greatest rain during the next ten days will be in western and northern crop areas as predicted earlier this week

o  
Beneficial rain is expected in the north, but not in Buenos Aires, La Pampa, southern Cordoba, southern Santa Fe or portions of Entre Rios

·       
No changes were noted in Brazil’s weather overnight

·       
U.S. weather is expected to trend cooler as late February arrives, but the cold will first accumulate in the north-central states and in Canada where readings may be bitterly cold by this time next week

·       
Europe and Asia temperatures are still advertised warm during the next ten days

·       
High pressure ridge building in the south-central and southeastern United States over the next ten days will heat up those areas while periods of rain lighten up for a while especially in the southeastern states

·       
Florida, southern Georgia and South Carolina will be dry for a while

·       
West Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will not get much rain for a while and the planting season is quickly approaching

·       
Snow has fallen in the central U.S. Plains overnight with up to  7 inches noted in western Kansas and eastern Colorado

·       
Another round of snow is likely in the northern Plains and upper U.S. Midwest during mid-week  next week as cold air seeps southward from Canada

·       
U.S. Tennessee River Basin will be wettest for the next ten days

·       
New waves of rain and mountain snow are expected in California during the last week of this month

·       
Portions of Western Europe will trend wetter in the second week of the two week forecast

o  
Eastern Europe will be wettest into the weekend while Western Europe is dry

·       
No change in the dry India forecast was noted overnight

·       
No change for China, Australia or South Africa as well

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
Feb. 16:

• Suspended
  – CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positi