FI Morning Grain Comments 02/15/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

Private
exporters reported sales of 213,370 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

The
USD was up sharply earlier this morning by 65 points, WTI 73 cents lower and US equities lower. Many outside commodity markets were trading lower. Global economic concerns were noted. UK’s CPI was up 10.1% from year ago, less than expected but indicates a
potential rate hike for that country. CBOT oilseeds and most grain contracts are lower this morning on technical selling. News was light. Brazil soybean harvesting pressure and improving SA and US weather was noted. NOPA US soybean crush is due out later this
morning. A Reuters poll calls for the January NOPA crush to end up near 181.7 million bushels, up 2.3% percent from December. . End of January stocks are seen at 1.906 billion pounds, up 6.4% from the end of December and down 5.9% from 2.026 billion at the
end of January 2022. Offshore values were leading SBO lower by about 118 points this morning and meal $1.20 short ton lower.

 

A
Bloomberg poll looks for weekly US ethanol production to be up 4,000 thousand barrels to 1004k (980-1020 range) from the previous week and stocks up 115,000 barrels to 24.532 million.

 

We
had to make an adjustment to our daily estimate of funds estimate due to CFTC report delays.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR FEBRUARY 15, 2023

• Not
  much changed in the world overnight
• Southern
  Argentina will be dry or mostly dry through the end of this month
• Brazil
  will continue too wet for the next two weeks in Parana, Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais and a part of Mato Grosso do Sul
• Mato
  Grosso will see good harvest and planting weather at times the remainder of this week, but rain will increase this weekend and next week slowing field progress once again
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get some snow today with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation expected and locally more; including eastern Colorado, much of western and central Kansas and southern Nebraska
• No
  drought busting moisture is likely, but the moisture from melting snow will help improve winter crops later this season
• Plenty
  of moisture is expected to fall across the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern States over the next two weeks maintaining abundant soil moisture
• Europe
  continues unusually dry raising worry over long term soil moisture ahead of spring crop development
• North
  Africa rain will be greatest in southwestern Morocco, but there are no crops there that will benefit from the moisture
• India
  will stay dry biased over the next two weeks
• Eastern
  China will see brief periods of rain and snow over the next two weeks, although most of the precipitation will be light
• Waves
  of snow will accumulate significantly from eastern Belarus and the Baltic States to a part of Russia’s Southern Region during the next two weeks
• Eastern
  Australia still needs significant rain to fall in unirrigated areas of Queensland and New South Wales
• Eastern
  South Africa will be wet in the next ten days while the west remains in need of greater rain

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
Feb. 15:

• Suspended
  – CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options

• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Malaysia’s
  Feb. 1-15 palm oil export data
• FranceAgriMer’s
  monthly grains balance sheet report

Thursday,
Feb. 16:

• International
  Grains Council’s monthly report
• USDA
  weekly net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Russia
  Grain Conference, Sochi

Friday,
Feb. 17:

• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• FranceAgriMer’s
  weekly crop conditions reports

Source:
Bloomberg and FI