FI Morning Grain Comments 01/19/23

PDF attached

 

Good
morning.

 

USDA
announced private exporters reported sales of 195,000 tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

Lower
trade in the soybean complex on improving Argentina weather prospects through the end of January. Chicago wheat and corn are lower. WTI crude oil turned higher, USD 9 points lower and US equities lower. Some western countries pledged to supply Ukraine weapons,
a signal the Russia/Ukraine situation has no near-term end in sight. The Argentina weather forecast improved from that of yesterday. Traders will be watching rainfall amounts today through Saturday for Cordoba, western BA and northeastern La Pampa, and other
areas over the weekend, and then again mid next week. The second half of January overall is wetter than that of first half. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 84 points lower this morning and meal $2.10 short ton lower. A Bloomberg poll looks
for weekly US ethanol production o be up 41,000 thousand barrels to 984k (975-1006 range) from the previous week and stocks up 107,000 barrels to 23.907 million.

 

 

 

Weather

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 19, 2023

• Most
  of Argentina will receive rain during the next ten days to two weeks and that should help stop the decline in crop conditions and may help restore some production potential for late season crops, although routinely occurring rain must continue through the
  balance of the growing season
• Far
  southern Brazil’s rainfall outlook is not ideal with lighter and less frequent rain than usual expected during the next ten days mostly in Rio Grande do Sul
• Some
  boosting in rainfall is possible during the last week of January
• Most
  other areas in Brazil will get well timed rainfall that is less intensive compared to that of previous weeks supporting crops and fieldwork; harvesting of early soybeans will occur around the precipitation
• Up
  to two feet of snow fell in central Nebraska Wednesday while most of the state reported 5 to 12 inches; snowfall of 2 to 8 inches has occurred in neighboring areas and from portions of central and northern Iowa and southern Minnesota to the Great Lakes region
• U.S.
  central Plains will see a follow up storm Friday night and Saturday that will impact Kansas , Colorado and parts of Nebraska with a few showers in Oklahoma
  
• Significant
  snowfall is possible in western Kansas with moisture totals sufficient to raise topsoil moisture when it melts
• U.S.
  Southwestern Plains (western Texas and western Oklahoma) are still not likely to see much precipitation of significance for a while
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta and southeastern States will receive frequent precipitation in the coming week to ten days favoring a boost in soil moisture
  
• No
  threatening cold in Europe next ten days
• Cold
  weather in Asia should mostly be in eastern Russia
• Cooling
  is likely in North America during the last week of January, but bitter cold conditions will likely hold off until early to mid-February and it may be centered on central parts of the continent
  
• Not
  much change was noted for India, China, Australia or South Africa overnight

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Thursday,
Jan. 19:

• Global
  Forum for Food and Agriculture, Berlin, Jan. 18-21

• European
  cocoa grindings
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
Jan. 20:

• Global
  Forum for Food and Agriculture, Berlin, Jan. 18-21

• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• US
  net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cotton ginnings
• US
  cattle on feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

 

 

 

Macros