FI Morning Grain Comments 01/18/23

PDF attached.

 

Good
morning.

 

WTI
crude oil was up about $1.47, USD 50 points lower and US equities higher. Talk of potential record world oil demand for 2023 was supporting WTI crude oil. Corn and soybeans turned lower after soybean meal prices broke. Wheat futures are extending gains on
Black Sea export concerns. Global wheat export demand is good. CBOT soybean oil is higher on strength in WTI crude oil. Palm oil closed higher on strength in mineral oil although chatter of India possibly raising their CPO import tariff may have limited grains.
Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about 34 points lower this morning and meal $3.20 short ton higher.

 

 

 

Weather

US
and Argentina’s weather outlook this morning improved. Rain was near expectations for Argentina yesterday for Cordoba, western BA and northeastern La Pampa. Argentina will see rain this week with greatest amounts Friday into Saturday, then again early next
week. Southern Brazil has an opportunity to see rain this week. Three weather systems will hit the US Great Plains by mid next week. It starts with precipitation falling across Nebraska into Iowa (yesterday) through Wednesday night, before moving east.

 

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 18, 2023

• Today’s
  ECMWF model is wetter for Argentina next week with nearly all of the nation getting rain at one time or another
• The
  GFS model run is not quite as wet for next week as the ECMWF model especially in northern Argentina
  
• The
  interpretation for Argentina should be bearish with improved rainfall being suggested by both models this morning
• Brazil
  weather remains well mixed in most of the nation, although Rio Grande do Sul’s precipitation may be a bit more erratic and light for a while
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will get some precipitation in the coming ten days, but drought busting moisture is not likely
• A
  first storm is impacting Nebraska, northern and eastern Kansas and northeastern Colorado today with snow and some rain
• A
  second storm is expected this weekend across the central Plains, but it will be a weaker event with limited increases in soil moisture expected
  
• A
  third event is still possible during mid-week next week, though the 06z GFS model run this morning removed that event
• California
  and the Pacific Northwest will be seeing less precipitation for a while and the break will be welcome, though additional moisture will be needed later this season to ensure improved water supply going into the growing season
• Northern
  U.S. Plains and Canada precipitation is expected to be limited for a while
• U.S.
  Midwest, Delta and southeastern states should see a net rise in soil moisture over the next two weeks
• The
  upper Midwest may not be as wet as other areas
• India’s
  eastern winter crop areas will get some welcome moisture next week
• Eastern
  Australia is still expecting some periodic showers thunderstorms, though greater rain may be needed in dryland areas
• Northeastern
  parts of South Africa will see limited rainfall for the next ten days while rain eventually develops in all other summer crop areas
• Europe
  weather will be wettest in the Mediterranean Sea region
• North
  Africa rainfall will be greatest in the next ten days in northern Algeria and coastal Tunisia; both Morocco and interior parts of Tunisia will need greater precipitation
  

Source:
World Weather and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
Jan. 18:

• Global
  Forum for Food and Agriculture, Berlin, Jan. 18-21
• Asia
  4Q 2022 cocoa grinding data

Thursday,
Jan. 19:

• European
  cocoa grindings
• North
  America cocoa grindings
• EIA
  weekly US ethanol inventories, production
• Port
  of Rouen data on French grain exports
• New
  Zealand Food Prices
• USDA
  red meat production, 3pm

Friday,
Jan. 20:

• Malaysia’s
  Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports
• ICE
  Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC
  commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options
• US
  net- export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• US
  cotton ginnings
• US
  cattle on feed

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

CME
is introducing new crop weekly options

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/new-crop-vs-old-crop-risk-of-the-past-year.html