FI Morning Grain Comments 01/13/23

Jan 13, 2023







PDF attached

 

Good
morning. 

 

The
soybean complex is under pressure this morning and grains are mixed. On Thursday soybeans saw their largest daily increase in prices since early fall 2022. Positioning ahead of the US long holiday weekend is seen today. The CBOT ag markets will reopen Monday
night. WTI crude oil is higher, USD higher, and US equities lower. March palm futures were down 70 ringgit to 2841 cash down $7.50 at $932.50. Offshore values were leading SBO higher by about -106 points lower this morning (44 lower for the week to date) and
meal $0.90 short ton lower ($6.80 higher for the week).

 

 

 

Weather

Largely
unchanged SA and US weather forecast. Argentina will see some light rain across Cordoba and Santa Fe through early today below dry weather sets in through Tuesday. Argentina may see rain late next week. Brazil will see rain favoring Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato
Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and the dry southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s west central and southern areas will generally see good rain through early next week. The US Midwest will see snow across the northwest Monday and rains
for the centra and southern areas. The ECB will see additional rain next week. The US Great Plains will see light rain for northern NE on Monday while other areas will remain dry. Later next week the GP may see precipitation.

 

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World
Weather, INC.

WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY 13, 2023

  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat production areas are still advertised to receive waves of rain and snow starting at mid-week next week and continuing into January 25
    • Some
      of the advertised precipitation by the GFS was overdone, but moisture is expected, and it will offer a brief reprieve from dry conditions
    • More
      moisture will be needed to break the drought
  • U.S.
    Midwest and especially the Delta and southeastern states will encounter waves of precipitation through the next two weeks bolstering soil moisture and possibly raising runoff potentials as well as river and stream flows
  • California
    has about five more days of stormy weather
    • Conditions
      will begin improving late next week, though there may be a hard freeze as the air starts to dry down
    • Much
      drier weather is expected once the cold surge arrives
  • West
    and South Texas are still not expecting much moisture and the same is true for the northwestern Plains
  • Northern
    Argentina received 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain overnight with a few local totals approaching 2.00 inches and some of that rain will linger today
    • The
      moisture benefited cotton areas more than grain and oilseed areas, but there some benefit there as well
  • After
    northern Argentina dries later today the majority of the nation will be dry for the coming week followed by some opportunity for rain late next week and into the following weekend
  • Brazil
    weather is still advertised to be favorably mixed over the next ten days with crops benefiting greatly
  • South
    Africa will be dry into early next week and then showers and thunderstorms will slowly evolve once again with Eastern Cape, Natal and Mpumalanga wettest late next week and into the following weekend
  • GFS
    model increased central and eastern India rainfall for Jan. 23-29 today – confidence is a little low
  • Eastern
    Australia rainfall slowly increases after Jan. 20
  • East-central
    and southeastern China is expecting periodic waves of rain and snow during the next two weeks raising soil moisture for winter crops
  • North
    Africa will begin seeing increased precipitation next week
  • Europe’s
    stormy weather will last into early next week then begin to dry down late next week as temperatures trend cooler

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Monday,
Jan. 16:

  • Malaysia’s
    Jan. 1-15 palm oil exports
  • Malaysia
    CPO export tax for February (tentative)
  • HOLIDAY:
    US

Tuesday,
Jan. 17:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • China
    4Q pork output and inventory levels
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
  • EU
    weekly grain, oilseed import and export data

Wednesday,
Jan. 18:

  • Global
    Forum for Food and Agriculture, Berlin, Jan. 18-21
  • Asia
    4Q 2022 cocoa grinding data

Thursday,
Jan. 19:

  • European
    cocoa grindings
  • North
    America cocoa grindings
  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports