FI Evening Grain Comments 11/29/22

Nov 29, 2022







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WTI
crude oil rallied on expectations for OPEC to cut oil production and rumors of China easing covid controls. Not all agree with that. A WSJ article this afternoon mentioned a group of delegates expect them to keep production levels flat. It will be interesting
how crude oil futures trade tonight. 

 

The
USD started lower but rallied by afternoon trading. CBOT agriculture futures ended mixed. US Winter wheat conditions improved two points but are far from normal for this time of year. The improvement reflects the improvement in rains across the southern Great
Plains and part of the reason why wheat futures are near multi week lows. The trade is waiting for the EPA to roll out their RVO mandates that are due out by end of November, for 2023, 2024, and 2025.
https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program/news-notices-and-announcements-renewable-fuel-standard 
December CBOT First Notice Day deliveries will be out tonight.

 

 

 

 

Weather

The
weather outlook improved for the US Midwest, Delta and Brazil than that of yesterday. Precipitation will occur across the Midwestern south central and northwestern areas today, and eastern areas Wednesday. For the Great Plains, northern CO and NE will see
a wintery mix today. Rest of the Great Plains will see net drying through the end of the workweek. Argentina’s BA will see rain through today, while from Wednesday into Thursday, Argentina’s Cordoba, south Santa Fe, Buenos Aires will benefit from precipitation.
Brazil will see rain this week across most growing areas, drier bias MGDS and RGDS.

 

 

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

  • Argentina
    will get some partial relief from dryness tonight into Thursday, but a general soaking is not likely and the need for significant rain will continue in many areas.
    • Any
      rain will be better than none
    • Northeastern
      and southwestern areas will remain driest relative to normal and in the absolute sense
    • Drier
      and warmer than usual weather will resume again late this week into next week
  • Argentina’s
    next best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms again after this week will be no sooner than mid-week next week and more likely later in that same week
    • No
      general soaking is expected, though, and the need for additional moisture will continue strong
  • Brazil’s
    drier biased areas in western and far southern parts of the nation will get some needed rain late this week and periodically through the weekend and all of next week
    • Sufficient
      rainfall is predicted to support more crop needs
    • A
      general improvement in the most moisture stressed crops is expected; including those in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southwestern Goias
  • Paraguay
    will remain quite dry during the next two weeks, although there will be a few showers periodically
    • Crop
      moisture stress will be on the rise after soil moisture is depleted
  • Portions
    of Bolivia will also remain drier biased for a while
  • Less
    than usual rain will continue in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and immediate neighboring areas extending into east-central Argentina during the next ten days
    • Timely
      rainfall, though will still support relatively good crop development
  • Northeastern
    Brazil may trend a little too wet over time in the next two weeks
    • Some
      potential for flooding will evolve in eastern Bahia and some neighboring areas this weekend into next week
  • U.S.
    weather is not expected to change greatly in the next two weeks
    • Central
      U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will continue drier than usual and poorly established

ยง 
A few bouts of snow and a little rain may occur, but resulting precipitation will not be great enough to make a difference

    • West
      Texas cotton areas may get rain briefly this weekend, but resulting rain should not be great enough to induce any changes in unharvested crop condition or soil moisture
    • U.S.
      Delta, southeastern states and eastern Midwest will be subjected to periodic precipitation events that will maintain moisture abundance and slow farming activity

ยง 
Winter crops will benefit from the moisture

    • California
      will receive some valley rain and mountain snow during the next couple of weeks

ยง 
Some heavy rain is possible along the upper California coast and in southwestern Oregon in time

ยง 
Mountain snowfall will improve snow water equivalency, but greater snow will still be needed to get the snowpack to normal

    • U.S.
      Pacific Northwest crop areas will experience a mostly good environment for dormant winter crops

ยง 
Some increase in soil moisture is expected over the next ten days

    • Northern
      Plains snowfall will occur periodically and should protect winter crops
  • U.S.
    temperatures will trend colder in the central and eastern states next week, but some cooling is likely in the north-central states later this week
  • Canada’s
    Prairies weather will continue to be a little more active in this coming week with waves of snow expected
    • A
      short break in the precipitation is expected later this week, and then more moisture will evolve next week

ยง 
The rising snowpack will be good for easing dryness in the spring of 2023

  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada precipitation is expected to occur frequently over the next ten days
    • Soil
      moisture will be plentiful and some snow is likely to accumulate after each weather system moves through the region
  • Europe
    temperatures will trend colder than usual in the northeast along with western Russia later this week and into the weekend
    • Temperatures
      in western and southern Europe will be mild to warm this week with some cooling in the northwest next week
    • Negative
      North Atlantic Oscillation may bring more cold farther west in Europe this weekend and next week than advertised today
  • Negative
    Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation may bring temperatures down across the central and interior eastern parts of the U.S. for a little week while next week
  • Europe
    precipitation will occur in many areas this week, although it will be light
    • Precipitation
      this weekend and next week will increase across southern parts of the continent; including the Mediterranean region

ยง 
The moisture will be good for raising soil moisture for winter crops especially in the drier areas of Spain, Portugal, Italy and the Balkan Countries