FI Evening Grain Comments 11/17/22

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CBOT
agriculture markets started the day lower on easing Black Sea trade concerns and good South American weather. Corn managed to rebound and settle higher in the front month contracts on technical buying and spreading against wheat. Russia confirmed the extension
of the Black Sea grain deal for 120 days starting November 18. This comes after fighting escalated in eastern Ukraine. Argentina’s weather forecast is slightly wetter this morning. USD was trading higher and WTI crude oil sharply lower.

Weather

US
weather forecast was unchanged. The Great Plains will see mostly dry weather through Sunday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side and will put some of the winter wheat into dormancy. The Midwest will see light precipitation today across the northeastern
states through Saturday. Argentina’s forecast is wetter for this weekend. Some rain will fall across La Pampa and southwest BA Thursday through Friday and Cordoba Saturday. Brazil’s Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Bahia will see rain through Sunday.

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• Argentina
  lost a little rainfall in its outlook today relative to that of Wednesday, but the change was slight
• Concern
  remains over long term soil moisture
• Subsoil
  moisture is still rated short to very short while topsoil moisture is rated a little more adequately with a few pockets of dryness
• Rain
  is most likely Sunday and Monday with most areas getting at least some moisture
• Temperatures
  will be very warm to hot until then
• No
  soaking rain is expected outside of a few random locations leaving concern about long term dryness especially with the majority of next week advertised to be dry and warm.
• Argentina
  temperatures were quite warm to hot Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 90s to near 100 Fahrenheit
• Several
  extremes over 100 occurred in Santiago del Estero and immediate neighboring areas
• Rain
  was confined to central and southern Buenos Aires and a part of eastern La Pampa where totals through dawn today varied from 0.05 to 0.57 inch
• Most
  other areas were dry
• Brazil
  rainfall Wednesday was confined to the northeast corner of the nation and a few areas in north-central Mato Grosso
• Amounts
  were mostly less than 0.40 inch in the northeast while a local total in north-central Mato Grosso reached 2.68 inches
  
• Drying
  occurred elsewhere in the nation with temperatures near normal in the west and north and cooler than usual in the northeast
• Brazil
  is still expecting a good mix of weather during the next two weeks, but a close watch on the rain distribution is warranted
• There
  are a few pockets of dryness in Mato Grosso, Goias and northern Mato Grosso do Sul, but the bulk of the nation is still favorably moist
• There
  is also an ongoing pattern of well below normal rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and neighboring areas that needs to be monitored for possible problems later in the growing season
• Brazil’s
  drier areas have not reached a critical point, yet,
• Rain
  expected next week will be very important and it must be not only well distributed, but great enough to restore ideal soil moisture in the driest areas
• Precipitation
  potentials are high through mid-week next week and then another round of drying is expected
  
• South
  Africa summer crop planting and winter grain harvesting seems to be advancing quite favorably with little change likely during the next two weeks
  
• Alternating
  periods of rain and sunshine are expected that should bode well for both fieldwork and early season crop development
• Australia
  weather will be more favorable for New South Wales and Queensland into the early days of December than that previously feared
• Totally
  dry weather is not expected, but the few showers that occur periodically should not be great enough to induce new flooding or threaten crops with additional quality declines
• Many
  areas will experience net drying and that will likely lead to receding flood water, drier soil in well-drained areas and improved field working conditions
• Harvesting
  of winter crops should improve as the ground firms
• Planting
  of summer crops should advance at its fastest pace of the season with improved emergence and establishment
• some
  low-lying areas will remain too wet
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin and areas southward to the coast will receive waves of rain during the next couple of weeks that should increase topsoil moisture and improve rapeseed and other winter crop establishment
• Some
  delay to farming activity will be possible, but after months of drought the delays will be welcome
• Other
  areas in China will experience relatively tranquil weather during the next ten days, although some precipitation is advertised for areas between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers next week
• Northern
  China will trend colder late next week and into the last days of November, but there is no sign of threatening cold
• Southern
  India will remain wet, but no crop damage is expected
• Northern
  and central India crop weather will be seasonably dry and warm supporting summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting
• A
  tropical disturbance in the eastern Bay of Bengal will be closely monitored for possible impact on southern India early next week
• The
  system may briefly become a tropical cyclone over the next few days, but it could dissipate as it approaches the lower India Coast
• Landfall
  is possible in Andhra Pradesh, but not prior to early next week
• U.S.
  weather will be trending warmer during the second week of the forecast, but temperatures over the next seven days will still be cold in much of the nation
• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas will remain drier biased for a while especially in the high Plains region
• West
  Texas cotton areas will continue to be dry biased over the next ten days to two weeks favoring good harvest weather
• Periodic
  rain in southeastern Texas will be good for raising soil moisture for cotton, corn and sorghum planting in spring 2023
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will receive rain again during the second week of the two week forecast, but precipitation initially is not likely to be very great