FI Evening Grain Comments 11/16/22

PDF Attached

Private
exporters reported the following sales activity:

-150,000
metric tons of hard red spring wheat for delivery to Iraq during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-1,866,900
metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 1,242,060 metric tons is for delivery during the 2022/2023 marketing year and 624,840 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

CBOT
agriculture markets were lower as traders shifted their focus back on hopes the Ukraine grain trade corridor agreement will be extended. Many downplaying the political ramifications from the missiles hitting Poland. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said the
missile that hit Poland killing two people was probably a Ukrainian air defense missile. Russia comments at the G20 summit in Bali were favorable for regarding extension of the Black Sea grain deal. South America is expected to see additional rain through
the end of the week.

Weather

US
weather forecast is unchanged. The Great Plains will see mostly dry weather through Sunday. Temperatures will be on the cooler side and will put some of the winter wheat into dormancy. The Midwest will see light precipitation today across the northeastern
states through Saturday. Argentina is wetter for this weekend. Some rain will fall across La Pampa and southwest BA Thursday through Friday and Cordoba Saturday. Brazil’s Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Bahia will see rain through Sunday.

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER FOR THE COMING WEEK

• Argentina
  was advertised to receive greater rain today relative to that of Tuesday’s outlook in central and northern parts of the nation for early next week
  
• If
  the ECMWF model forecast verifies planting, emergence and establishment of summer crops would continue favorable
• There
  is still a big need for a general soaking of rain and the precipitation advertised would be welcome, but still not enough to soak the ground and end concern over long term dryness
• Argentina
  weather will trend drier once again during mid-week next week and stay that way into the following weekend
• The
  nation needs routinely occurring rainfall to protect production potentials and to maintain a favorable planting environment
• Late
  season wheat also needs the moisture to ensure the best possible finish to the growing season
• Brazil
  weather will remain well mixed over the next two weeks, although concern remains over limited soil moisture in parts of Mato Grosso, Goias and northern Mato Grosso do Sul
• Dryness
  is not a “crisis”, but there is need for greater rain and rain advertised for late in this weekend through the early part of next week will be of critical importance to these drier areas
• No
  other area in Brazil is as dry as this center west region, although rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul has been lighter than usual for many weeks
• Rio
  Grande do Sul is expected to receive timely rainfall late Sunday into Tuesday of next week and as long as the moisture advertised falls there should not be any serious problem with dryness
• Brazil
  rainfall Tuesday and early today was greatest in Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, northern and east-central Minas Gerais, Goias, central Mato Grosso and Tocantins as well as far southern Bahia
• Rain
  totals varied from 1.30 to more than 4.00 inches in Espirito Santo while varying up to 2.43 inches in northern Minas Gerais and 3.00 inches in far southern Bahia
• Central
  Mato Grosso reported up to 1.18 inches of rain in a few areas
• U.S.
  weather will remain cold for the coming week, but warming is advertised for the second week of the outlook
• Waves
  of snow will fall across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region
• Heavy
  Lake Effect snow is expected
• Week
  two rain and snow will evolve in the southeastern U.S. Plains and move northeast through the heart of the lower and eastern Midwest during the latter part of next week
• Moisture
  totals may vary from 0.30 to 1.00 inch and a few amounts to 1.50 inches, although it is too early to get specific about the storm
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest weather is expected to trend wetter and stormier during the latter part of next week and into the last days of this month
• West
  Texas precipitation potentials are low during much of the two weeks coming up with the best chance for rain and/or snow coming in the second half of next week
• Dry
  conditions until then will support good harvest weather
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states should see net drying for a while except near the Gulf of Mexico Coast where some rain will fall periodically
• Europe
  weather is expected to turn more active during the next week to ten days with waves of rain bringing up soil moisture and disrupting farming activity
• The
  moisture should bring relief to drought in southern France, eastern Spain and the lower Danube River Basin in time.
  
• Ukraine
  weather is advertised wetter today than that of Tuesday especially in the second week of the outlook when waves of precipitation are expected
• Colder
  weather advertised for northeastern Europe has been reduced for next week and into the following weekend, although there will be a short term bout of it
• No
  winterkill is expected because of cloudiness and precipitation helping to hold up the temperatures a bit
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin and crop areas in the far southeast will receive waves of rain during the next two weeks improving soil moisture for future crop development
  
• Rapeseed
  emergence and establishment will benefit most from the precipitation
• Other
  areas in China will experience relatively tranquil weather during the next ten days
• Northern
  China will trend colder late next week and into the last days of November, but there is no sign of threatening cold
• Southern
  India will receive some waves of rain during the next week to ten days
• Local
  flooding will be possible
• A
  tropical cyclone may form in the Bay of Bengal in the next few days and may drift toward southern Brazil
• The
  system may dissipate before reaching land and confidence in the system and its predicted movement is very low
• Landfall
  – if it occurs would be early next week, but there is a good chance that the system may fall apart before reaching land and since it has not formed yet the speculation is even greater than usual
• Queensland
  and New South Wales, Australia rainfall during the coming week to ten days will be brief and light allowing flood water to recede and soil conditions to slowly improve
• Temperatures
  will continue cooler than usual slowing the nation’s drying rates and crop development
• Victoria
  may get rain a little too often and could become excessively wet during the next ten days with some flood potential rising
• Western
  Australia weather will be very good for crops and fieldwork
• Indonesia,
  Malaysia, Philippines, southern Vietnam, southern Cambodia and southern Thailand will be wet over the next ten days to two weeks
  
• Flood
  potentials may rise next week and into the last days of this month as a robust Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event evolves
• The
  event will need to be closely monitored
• South
  Africa will receive a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks supporting crop development and field progress
• Good
  harvest weather is expected for wheat and canola in the western part of the nation where rainfall is expected to be very limited over the next two weeks
• Temperatures
  will be seasonable with a slight warmer bias
• Week
  two weather may trend a little wetter in the east