FI Evening Grain Comments 10/17/22

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USDA
crop progress was near expectations and US harvesting pressure should be seen later this week. A lower than estimated US crush was unexpected. Commercial hedging was good as same as Friday. No changes in US supply estimates.

Weather

World
Weather, INC.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY

• Typhoon
  Nesat was in the South China Sea this morning and it will be a Category Two hurricane equivalent storm today and Tuesday before passing south of Hainan, China Wednesday and Thursday.
  
• The
  storm should weaken greatly as it interacts with Hainan and the odds are very good that the storm will have a minimal impact on northern Vietnam when it arrives late this week
  
• Flooding
  rain and some strong wind could damage rice and sugarcane on Hainan
• Eastern
  Australia rain will resume this week after a short term break during the weekend
• Rain
  will begin in South Australia today and quickly spread to New South Wales, Queensland Tuesday through Friday
• Victoria
  does not get much of this rain, but it will get rain this weekend
• Moisture
  totals for all three states by Saturday will vary from 0.75 to 2.00 inches with local totals of 2.00 to 4.00 inches
• Wettest
  in Queensland and northern New South Wales
• Flooding
  will resume and/or worsen in New South Wales with some expansion and development of it in Queensland
• Lighter
  waves of rain will continue periodically through Oct. 31 maintaining a wet bias, but no new flooding is expected
  
• Western
  Australia is still unlikely to receive much rain through the next ten days, but some showers will occur in portions of the south with rainfall to 0.60 inch
• Greater
  rain may impact the far south during the Oct. 27-31 period
• Torrential
  rain and serious flooding impacted the Da Nang, Hue and Quang Tri areas of Vietnam during the weekend. Rainfall ranged from 11.00 to 25.00 inches with local totals over 28.00 inches
  
• Da
  Nang reported over 25.00 inches in 24 hours
• Damage
  to personal property and infrastructure was serious and probably much greater than the impact on agriculture
• Argentina
  received rain from east-central Cordoba through central and southern Santa Fe to central and southern Entre Rios during the weekend
• Rainfall
  varied up to 0.68 inch through Sunday morning with Marcos Juarez, Cordoba reporting 1.50 inches
  
• Dry
  weather occurred elsewhere until this morning when showers popped up over Santiago del Estero and western Chaco producing less than 0.50 inch of rain
• Temperatures
  were seasonable
• Argentina
  will be dry early this week, but rain is expected Wednesday and Thursday helping to lift topsoil moisture in a portions of the nation, but much more rain will still be needed
• 60%
  coverage of 0.05 to 0.65 inch of rain is expected with a few greater amounts favoring the interior north
  
• Additional
  rain is expected Sunday into Tuesday of next week favoring central parts of the nation
• Brazil
  rainfall expected this workweek will be similar to that of last week favoring the interior south and western portions of center west
• The
  rain will maintain a good outlook for early season planting, emergence and establishment for soybeans, corn and other crops especially after relatively dry weather occurred during the weekend
• Rain
  this weekend into next week is expected to shift into northeastern Brazil where rainfall of 1.00 to 3.00 inches and locally more is expected
  
• Relief
  from seasonal dryness is expected and it should support new planting of soybeans and corn and improvement in sugarcane, and coffee conditions
• Brazil
  temperatures will be warm in the northeast and mild to cool elsewhere this week and then cooler in the northeast next week
  
• Argentina’s
  temperatures will be cool this week and a little warmer than usual next week
  
• U.S.
  temperatures are still expected to be colder than usual this week in most areas east of the Rocky Mountains
  
• Frost
  and freezes will occur southward into the Mid-south region; including the northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin Tuesday with hard freezes in the northern and central Plains and western and central Corn Belt
• Frost
  could occur southward into Arkansas, central Mississippi, central Alabama and northern Georgia Wednesday
  
• The
  growing season will be ended throughout the Midwest and into a part of the mid-south region
• Damage
  to immature crops is likely, but the impact should mostly be to crop quality
• Blackened
  soybeans are expected, but bean shattering should be rare
• U.S.
  rainfall is expected to be limited over the coming week
• Rain
  will fall in the Great Lakes region through Wednesday while most other areas are dry
• Rain
  in West Texas will end today and that which occurs in South Texas will end tonight and early Tuesday with another trace to 0.75 inch of rain expected
  
• Needed
  rain may evolve in a part of the Pacific Northwest this coming weekend with follow up rainfall next week, although the Yakima Valley will be left mostly dry as will California and the southern Great Basin
  
• This
  moisture will be welcome and should improve winter crop emergence and establishment while supporting an improved environment for more dryland planting, especially in Oregon
• Heavy
  rain is possible in the Cascade Mountains
• Montana
  is expected to receive rain and some snow Saturday and Sunday with the moisture likely to improve winter crop emergence and establishment
• U.S.
  weather next week will bring a couple of opportunities for light rain in the Midwest and eastern Plains, along with the Delta and Southeastern states
  
• The
  moisture will be associated with a couple of fast moving frontal systems
• Each
  occurrence of rain will be brief and light having a low impact on crop areas
• Drought
  will continue in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas through the next two weeks, despite some rain in the southern Plains during the weekend
  
• Rain
  during the weekend was greatest in southern Oklahoma and a few areas in north-central Texas where 0.35 to 1.38 inches resulted with local totals to 2.22 inches
• All
  of the greatest rainfall was in southern Oklahoma
• Showers
  in the Texas Panhandle during the weekend were no more than 0.43 inch with many areas getting less than 0.25 inch.
  
• Most
  of Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska were dry along with the northeastern Texas Panhandle and northwestern and north-central Oklahoma
• Late
  weekend rainfall in the northern Delta varied from 0.16 inch to 1.68 inches
• Rain
  elsewhere during the weekend in U.S. crop areas was restricted with less than 0.23 inch in the heart of the Midwest while 0.20 to 0.71 inch occurred in western Michigan