was my final day at Futures International, LLC. It’s been a pleasure serving all readers over the years.
are updated US S&D’s.
June 1 corn stocks were reported at large 149 million bushels below the average trade guess. Look for feed demand to increase in the next USDA S&D update by 100 million bushels, then adjust that category again in October. At the end of September, we are looking
for US 2022 corn production to be revised lower by 125 million bushels. US June 1 soybean stocks of 796 million bushels were 16 million bushels below the trade guess and March was revised lower by 30 million bushels. We see a small downward revision to the
2022 US soybean production when updated in the September grain stocks report. All-wheat stocks of 580 million bushels were 31 million below an average trade guess but remained at a comfortable level.
USDA’s yield, implied production adjusts upward by 402 million bushels for corn to 15.7 billion, and soybeans downward by 210 million bushels to 4.300 billion. All wheat implied would come out to 1.694 billion, 29 million above the June estimate and 44 million
above 2022. The 15.7 billion corn figure would be 1.94 billion above 2022 and soybeans 24 million above 2022. More comments below.
wheat planted area by class was mixed. USDA’s spring wheat of 11.14 million acres topped the upper end of the trade range while durum and winter wheat came in below. The area abandonment for wheat was much smaller than expected with all-wheat gaining little
more than 620,000 harvested acres from USDA’s June working estimate.
trade ignored the possibility for additional corn plantings for the areas where wheat abandonment was very high (hinted in the harvested area for the March report for winter wheat), along with a boost in corn acres for the “I” states. The November soybean/corn
2023 ratio, along with high basis in the west promoting producer selling, did slightly favor corn plantings during the late March and April timeframe. IN addition, producers in the Dakota’s were able to get their corn in despite speculation the wet spring
and early local floods would shift corn to soybeans. North Dakota seedings were down 14 percent from March Intentions. IL lost 7 percent, IA 4 percent, and Missouri 7 percent.
line is look for USDA to make some major changes to the new-crop US corn and soybean balance sheets.
reported 132,000 tons of new crop soybeans sold to China.
crude oil was higher and USD lower. The CBOT agriculture markets were higher pre-USDA report after a derecho swept across the Midwest on Tuesday. Wind gusts upwards of 100 mph may have damaged some crops. This would have been much more destructive if it occurred
later in the season, in our opinion. Prices moved hard post USDA report, with soybeans surging and corn lower. Soybean oil hit limit up several times. Traders are nervous there will be an increase in competition between domestic end users and exporters.
Midwest will experience waves of rain into early next week bolstering soil moisture for better corn and soybean development
up rain is expected during the following week, although it should not be excessively wet
improvements are expected throughout the previously dry areas and soybean production potential will be restored most favorably
yields are already destined to be lower because of the dry weather that occurred in recent weeks, but the rain should put a cap on the losses
in the heart of Illinois Thursday and early today varied up over 1.00 inch in central parts of the state with 1.78 inches at Bloomington
also occurred from Nebraska and northern Kansas through southern Iowa and northern Missouri into Indiana and Kentucky with 0.25 to 0.85 inch common with local totals over 1.00 inch
rain fell in southwestern Indiana where multiple inches of rain was suggested in radar imagery
heat occurred again Thursday from central Missouri and eastern Kansas into Texas and the Delta where highs well into the 90s and over 100 Fahrenheit were common.
highs reached 109 in southern Oklahoma, 106 in southern Texas, 103 in northwestern Arkansas and 106 in southeastern Missouri
of the U.S. heatwave will advance a little farther to the east today and then abate on Saturday and Sunday
severe weather is possible in the central United States; including parts of the Midwest this weekend
cool airmass will drop across Canada early to mid-week next week and some of the cooler air will reach into the central United States for a brief period of time next week as well
warmer air after the cool passes out of the U.S. will induce some additional rain