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Wilde
week as most CBOT soybean complex and corn contracts that rallied earlier this week gave up gains. Wheat ended higher this week. Today, negative EU economic news and a US weather forecast calling for an increase in rainfall for the WCB today through this weekend
(OK through IA bias) and northern Corn Belt June 30-July 2, sent soybeans, soybean meal and grain lower. Soybean oil rallied despite lower WTI crude oil. The USD was sharply higher. US equities were under pressure. End of week profit taking should be noted.
Fund
estimates as of June 23 (net in 000)
Weather
7-day
MID-DAY
US WEATHER UPDATE — “SUMMARY AND COMMENT”
The
first week of the two week mid-day GFS model run today reduced rain from southeastern Alberta through much of central and western Saskatchewan early next week. The model also reduced rain from northeastern Nebraska to southeastern Minnesota late this weekend
into early next week while increasing it from southeastern South Dakota into central Minnesota. The model also reduced rain across much of South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota late next week.
The
second week of the model run was wetter in the southern half of the Plains and into the northern Delta and Kentucky June 30-July 2 at the same time rain was removed from the Carolinas, Georgia, southern Alabama and northern Florida. The model removed the tropical
cyclone that had been predicted previously for the July 3-5 period which led to reduced rainfall from the Gulf of Mexico Coast States into the Midwest July 3-7. Rain was increased in southern Texas July 6-7. The model run also increased Canada Prairies Rainfall
July 6-7.
European
model later confirmed additional precipitation.
WORLD
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUNE 23, 2023
- Hot
temperatures in Texas may bubble up into Kansas, Missouri and parts of Illinois this weekend again during the middle to latter part of next week; extreme highs in the 90s Fahrenheit are expected with a couple of readings near 100 - Central
Midwest rainfall will continue to be poorly distributed in the coming week, although a few showers and thunderstorms will pop up; no serious relief to dryness is likely - Week
two U.S. weather may provide a little more rain in the Midwest, but it may only be a temporary reprieve and some caution will be needed in determining the impact of that moisture; any rain will be important, but the relief may not last long - GFS
model is trying to bring a tropical cyclone into the Gulf of Mexico during the second week of the outlook, this may or may not verify, but be assured that the feature will influence week two weather in many of the coming computer model runs; (confidence in
a storm verifying is very low today) - No
ridge of high pressure is expected in the U.S. Midwest next week or in the following week resulting in little to no potential for excessive heat except in the southwestern Corn Belt as noted in the first bullet above - Northern
U.S. Plains and upper Midwest rainfall expected this weekend and periodically in the second week of the outlook should prove extremely beneficial in improving crop and field conditions in the Dakotas, Minnesota, southern Manitoba and some surrounding areas - Rain
in the Great Lakes region over the next couple of weeks will help prevent crops from drying down much more than they already have - Texas
will continue to deal with excessive heat for much of the coming week with extremes of 108 to 116 common in the central and south stressing livestock and unirrigated crops throughout the state and in parts of Oklahoma as well - A
strong energy demand for natural gas and electricity will continue in Texas and some immediate neighboring areas - Canada’s
Prairies will experience net drying in the heart of the region while Manitoba and western Alberta have the best chance for rain over the next week to ten days; greater rain is still expected in July across Saskatchewan - India’s
monsoon depression expected over the coming week will bring much needed rain to much of the nation - Russia
has confirmed lower sunseed and spring wheat yields because of dryness earlier this season in the eastern New Lands, but weather in this coming week will be mild to cool and rain is expected in many areas
- China
will continue quite wet in the southern rice areas where early rice quality may be compromised and some delay in harvesting is likely - Net
drying may continue north of the Yellow River for a while, but most of the dryness will be in minor summer crop areas with some sugarbeet and spring wheat impacted - No
changes in South America weather were noted overnight - Eastern
Australia’s rain event is still on for late next week and in the following weekend; if it verifies it would be a big boon for wheat and barley in Queensland and northern New South Wales where it has been dry, but the system may be a little overdone - Indonesia
and Malaysia rainfall is becoming quite erratic and light, but some increase in rainfall is expected - Water
supply in mainland areas of Southeast Asia remains poor and western Thailand rainfall continues well below normal; other areas in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos will get timely rain of greater benefit
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Friday,
June 23:
- USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - US
Cattle on Feed, 3pm - US
cold storage data for beef, pork and poultry - HOLIDAY:
China
Monday,
June 26:
- USDA
export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am - US
corn, cotton, soybean, spring wheat and winter wheat condition, 4pm - US
planting data for cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm - US
poultry slaughter, 3pm
Tuesday,
June 27:
- EU
weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
Wednesday,
June 28:
- Canada’s
StatCan to release seeded area data for wheat, barley, canola and soybeans - EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - HOLIDAY:
India, Indonesia
Thursday,
June 29:
- IGC
monthly grains report - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Vietnam’s
coffee, rice and rubber export data for June - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - USDA
hogs and pigs inventory, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Pakistan
Friday,
June 30:
- USDA
quarterly stockpiles data for corn, soybeans, wheat, barley, oat and sorghum, noon - ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - US
annual acreage data for corn, cotton, wheat and soybeans - US
agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - <