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markets will reopen Monday evening.


debt ceiling optimism sent US equities and many commodity markets higher. The USD was down 6 points as of 1:40 pm CT and WTI crude up $0.83.
soybean complex and grains were strong today. US weather concerns and Black Sea shipping uncertainty along with positioning ahead of the long holiday weekend underpinned prices. USDA will update crop progress on Monday. We look for a good jump in planting
progress, a slight increase in US winter wheat conditions, and near average for initial US corn conditions, although drought conditions across the WCB could drag the US aggregate below the 71 percent 5-year average. We are currently looking for 70.



estimates as of May 26




seven days

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Weather Inc.


  • Gulf
    of Mexico moisture will not be available for enhanced rainfall in the U.S. Midwest through the next full week and probably not for ten days
    • U.S.
      Midwest rainfall will therefore be lighter than usual through at least June 5
    • The
      earliest that the Gulf of Mexico will reopen as a moisture source for the Midwest would be after June 5 and more likely after June 7
  • Wet
    bias in the U.S. high Plains region will help to keep high pressure weak in those areas in early June when the ridge relocates back to the western parts of North America
  • U.S.
    Midwest rainfall will be most restricted and temperatures warmest during the coming week with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s expected over multiple days
  • Returning
    high pressure ridge to the western parts of North America during the second weekend of the two week outlook will help release cooler from northern Canada and force it southward into the Midwest
    • Showers
      will accompany these cool fronts in the second and third weeks of June inducing some periodic rain, although the rain amounts may be lighter than usual for that time of year
  • Canada’s
    most drought stricken region in the Prairies includes east-central and interior southern Alberta and much of western Saskatchewan crop areas
    • These
      areas will have an improving opportunity for rain during the second half of next week and especially in the following weekend as the high pressure ridge consolidates as it moves westward from the Midwest toward the Plains and Prairies.
      • Rain
        chances in the drought areas should be very good for a few days and that should lead to short term improvements in crop and field conditions, although  a permanent end to drought is certainly not expected
  • Rain
    that fell earlier this week in western Alberta and that which occurred so far in Saskatchewan has been welcome and very helpful in easing dryness and improving seed germination, plant emergence and establishment
    • The
      same can be said of northern and west-central Manitoba.
    • The
      unsettled weather in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will shift to the southeast this weekend and early next week just long enough to bring some needed moisture in central and southeastern Manitoba and then a return of drier and warmer weather is expected next week
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada need more consistent warm temperatures to stimulate better wheat, corn and soybean development
    • Some
      improving trends are expected over the next week
  • Portions
    of West Texas and the southwestern U.S. Plains are becoming a little too wet and frequent rainfall may continue through the middle part of next week
    • The
      wetter bias will delay fieldwork; including the planting of corn, sorghum and cotton while also slowing the maturation of winter wheat
      • Some
        wheat quality concerns are expected with head sprouting possible in the southwestern U.S. Plains
  • A
    good mix of weather is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest to support both fieldwork and crop development over the next ten days to two weeks.
  • U.S.
    Pacific Northwest weather will remain drier biased in the Yakima Valley while rain falls frequently in Idaho, Wyoming and neighboring areas where sugarbeets and dry beans are produced
  • Mexico
    drought will continue in western parts of the nation through the next two weeks
    • Rain
      in eastern Mexico will be sufficient to support most crops with some of that moisture also reaching into southern Texas
  • Central
    America rainfall is expected to increase sufficiently for improved moisture conditions in many areas from Guatemala to Panama during the next ten days, but amounts may not be great enough to fix the water levels on Lake Gatun that influences shipping through
    the Panama Canal
    • Draught
      restrictions will continue
  • Argentina
    received heavy rain overnight in east-central and southeastern parts of the nation benefiting many wheat production areas
    • Additional
      rain is expected in the coming week, but it will not favor La Pampa, western Buenos Aires or southwestern Cordoba where soil moisture is still restricted
      • Good
        wheat planting prospects will continue in all other areas
  • Center
    south Brazil weather will be dry biased the remainder of this week and this weekend while temperatures are warmer than usual
    • Net
      drying is expected and unirrigated Safrinha crops will become more stressed
      • Early
        maturing corn will be maturing and should not be seriously stressed by the environment
  • Well-timed
    rain will fall in Safrinha crop areas of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paul and Parana late this weekend and early next week resulting in a perfectly timed improvement in topsoil moisture to carry late planted corn through reproduction in a favorable manner
  • Mato
    Grosso and Goias may not be included in the rain event next week and crop moisture stress may continue to rise, although there is only a small amount of very late crop development in these areas relative to the remainder of the Safrinha crop region which should
    limit the downside for production
  • Cooling
    after early next week’s southern Brazil rain event may bring down temperatures into the 40s Fahrenheit, but no frost event is presently anticipated
  • Northern
    Europe will dry out over the next ten days
    • The
      region will experience seasonable temperatures which may help to keep the drying rates at a reasonable level, but the region will need to be closely monitored for possible dryness issues later in June
  • Southern
    Europe continues to deal with frequent showers and thunderstorms
    • Flooding
      occurred recently in northern Italy
    • Some
      grain quality concerns may be developing in early maturing winter small grains
    • The
      pattern is not likely to change much for at least the next week and possibly ten days
  • Russia’s
    eastern New Lands are drying down and will need to be closely monitored over the next few weeks for moisture shortages and crop stress
    • Today’s
      forecast models suggest rain will fall in the June 3-9 period, but it is unclear how significant that may or may not be
  • Western
    Russia, Belarus and western Ukraine may dry  down for the next ten days while the Volga River Basin and Ural Mountains region get periodic rain along with eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region
  • Australia’s
    winter crops are establishing favorably in portions of the south, especially in Victoria, southeastern South Australia and southern New South Wales locations
    • Greater
      rain is needed in interior parts of Western and South Australia, Queensland and some north-central production areas of New South Wales
  • Northern
    India will get unusually great amounts of rain for this time of year slowing fieldwork and raising some unharvested winter crop quality concerns
    • Much
      of the winter crop should be harvested, though
    • Rain
      will be good for early season cotton in Punjab, Haryana and parts of Rajasthan as well as in parts of Pakistan