PDF Attached
Attached
are our updated US soybean complex S&D’s, Kansas wheat crop tour snapshot, and selected world STU charts.
WTI
crude oil was $1.08 lower and USD higher by about 71 points as of 1:55 pm CT. Oil share reversed, lifting soybean oil higher, and in turn trimmed losses for soybeans. Soybean meal traded lower. Argentina’s BA grains exchange cut their soybean outlook from
22.5 million tons to 21 million. US wheat futures fell on follow through selling after an agreement was reached to extend the Black Sea grain deal by 60 days. Corn ended mixed from bear spreading. The Kansas wheat crop tour reported a yield of 30 bu/ac, 1
bu above USDA, but production came in at a low 178 million bushels, below USDA’s May estimate of 191 million, due higher abandonment.
Weather
Reuters
summer outlook for North America
Significant
Anomalies:
Temperature
Outlook: The forecast temperature anomalies for June-August in North America (Figure 1) feature the potential for widespread heat risks, with a ridge of high pressure likely to settle in over the west/central portion of the continent.
Precipitation
Outlook: The forecast precipitation anomalies for June-August in North America (Figure 2) feature a zone of high rainfall along the eastern U.S. Corn belt, but the likelihood of widespread dryness everywhere else to the west of that zone including the Canadian
Prairies.
WEATHER
TO WATCH
-
Frost
and freezes occurred this morning in Ontario and Quebec, Canada and in neighboring areas of the northeastern U.S. -
Lows
in the 20s and 30s Fahrenheit were impressive, but there was not negative impact on wheat or corn -
Frost
and freezes occurred in Alberta this morning with extreme lows of 27 to 39 Fahrenheit -
Temperatures
were colder than expected, though most of the crops that had emerged were probably not seriously impacted -
Only
a very small amount of replanting would likely be necessary, if there is any -
Frost
is likely in North Dakota and northeastern Montana Friday morning with lows in the 30s Fahrenheit -
The
impact on crops should be minimal -
Argentina
rain began overnight as the first of three waves of energy move through its atmosphere -
By
the end of next week and into the following weekend the nation should have received enough rain to support wheat planting, though there will still be need for much more moisture -
Brazil’s
center south and center west crop areas will continue in a net drying mode for the next two weeks – which is normal for this time of year -
A
few fields in Mato Grosso and Goias that were planted late may experience a reduction in yield potential, but the bulk of crop has made it through the most moisture sensitive stage without much trouble -
Safrinha
corn in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana is much farther behind in their development than areas to the north, but soil moisture is still very well rated which should carry normal crop development into early June without much problem -
There
is no risk of crop threatening cold during the next two weeks -
U.S
Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will continue to experience a very good mix of weather for aggressive planting and early season crop development -
Warmer
temperatures next week will accelerate drying rates and stimulate faster plant growth rates leading to a need for greater rainfall in June, especially while rainfall is lighter than usual as it should be for the next couple of weeks -
U.S.
high Plains region from West Texas to western Nebraska and eastern Colorado will receive periodic rainfall over the next ten days resulting in a favorable crop development environment -
The
moisture will be most beneficial for corn, sorghum, soybeans and sunseed, although wheat and other winter crops will benefit to some degree -
A
full recharge of production potentials is certainly not likely in drought stricken wheat areas and the latest Drought Monitor has revealed that long term drought is still deeply entrenched across the region -
U.S.
Pacific Northwest will continue warmer and drier than usual for a while longer -
Unirrigated
crops are stressed especially in the Yakima Basin of Washington -
Relief
from dryness in the Pacific Northwest is not very likely for an extended period of time
-
West
Texas planting moisture will be favorable, but the region will not get a good soaking to fix poor subsoil moisture in unirrigated crop areas -
U.S.
temperatures in the coming week will be very warm in the far western states and near normal in much of the central and east, although the southwestern Plains will be cooler biased for a while -
Warmer
biased temperatures are likely many key crop areas except in the southwestern Plains and Gulf of Mexico Coast States next week
-
Southern
Europe weather will continue active with frequent bouts of rain expected through the next week and possibly for ten days -
The
moisture will delay some planting and could raise a little concern over crop quality in a few areas -
Northern
Europe will be drier biased, although not completely dry -
The
environment will be good for planting, emergence and establishment -
North
Africa will receive greater than usual rainfall over the next week to ten days resulting in a possible crop quality concern for early maturing wheat and barley in Morocco and northwestern Algeria -
Crops
in northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia are expected to benefit from their rain since crops should be in the reproductive and filling stages of development -
China
weather will continue a little wetter biased in rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River valley and areas to the south where some drying might be best for maturation and harvesting -
East-central
China (between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers) will experience a good mix of weather during the next ten days favoring crop development and additional planting -
Northern
China drying has not presented much of a problem, though some spring wheat and sugarbeet areas in eastern Inner Mongolia are too dry -
Some
of this dryness has been expanding to the west and south recently including northern Hebei -
Central
parts of Inner Mongolia and portions of the northern Yellow River Basin may become influenced by the drier bias over time, though conditions today are still very good in those areas -
Xinjiang,
China remains too cold in the northeast for ideal corn or cotton development -
Western
parts of Xinjiang where much of the cotton is produced, has had three days of very warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and lower to a few middle 90s Fahrenheit -
The
heat has begun to improve crops in the west and the warmer conditions should prevail for a while -
India
weather is quite favorable for this time of year with pre-monsoonal showers occurring in the south and east while drying occurs in many other areas supporting good harvest conditions -
Rainfall
was increased in northern India for next week, but some of the precipitation advertised may be overdone on today’s forecast models -
Russia’s
eastern New Lands may slowly dry down over the next ten days, but crop conditions should remain mostly favorable during this period of time -
Western
Russia and eastern Ukraine will experience timely rainfall during the next ten days supporting good crop conditions -
Philippines
and western Indonesia soil moisture firmed up a little during the past week due to more infrequent and light rainfall -
The
region is expecting to get more significant rain in this coming week -
Western
and northern Alberta, Canada will receive significant rain next week and that will bolster soil moisture after recent hot and dry weather -
The
rain will greatly improve soil moisture, although at the expense of fieldwork for a little while.
-
Drought
remains serious in east-central and interior southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan with no rain and waves of heat likely in this first week of the outlook -
Rain
in northern and western Alberta is not likely to reach the drought areas -
South
Africa weather will be trending drier in the coming week to ten days -
Summer
crop harvesting and winter crop planting will advance swiftly in the next two weeks with some need for greater rain in western wheat areas -
West
Africa weather continues to generate timely rainfall for coffee, cocoa, sugarcane and rice -
Rainfall
in the most recent 30 days was a little lighter than usual in southeastern Nigeria and western Cameroon as well as from northern Ivory Coast into southwestern Burkina Faso impacting cotton areas -
Crop
conditions should remain mostly good, although the drier areas would benefit from greater rain -
East-central
Africa rainfall has been favorable for coffee, cocoa and other crops in recent weeks with little change likely -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop weather has been relatively good this year with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall reported -
The
favorable environment will continue -
Mexico
rainfall is expected to steadily increase over the central and eastern parts of the nation during the next ten days improving soil moisture for future planting of summer crops
-
Western
Mexico will continue quite dry -
Central
America rainfall is expected to be erratic, although mostly favorable during the next two weeks -
Tropical
Cyclone Fabien in the Indian Ocean poses no threat to land -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -6.67 and it should move erratically lower over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
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