wheat was up by a strong amount today after USDA reported a large abandonment and lower than expected yield/production. Chicago and MN followed KC higher. Corn was mixed from bull spreading and soybeans were lower following a bearish USDA report. Soybean oil
slipped below 50 cents, first time since early 2021 (rolling contract basis) and meal closed mixed. Next week we will update our US S&D’s after adjusting harvested area and latest crop conditions for winter wheat.
soybeans bias new crop, bearish corn, and friendly for wheat (US carryout bias). We are medium- and long-term bearish corn and soybeans and steady to moderately bearish wheat. This assumes normal global weather through the end of this year.
OCE Secretary’s Briefing
new crop ending stocks were above expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
soybean and corn production for 2022-23 was unchanged. USDA is likely waiting for the harvest to advance before making an expected downward revision. The world old crop carryouts for corn and soybeans were above expectations with no Argentina production changes.
2022-23 corn production was upward revised 5 million tons to 130MMT, 4 million above the trade guess. Brazil soybean production was taken up 1MMT.
old crop stocks
2022-23 soybean carryout was 215 and near expectations. USDA took the carryout 5 million bushels higher with an increase in imports of 5 million. 2022-23 US crush and exports were left unchanged. The US 2022-23 soybean meal production was lowered 25,000 short
tons, imports upward revised 25,000 short tons, domestic use down 100k and exports up 100k. The exports revision we agree with.
US corn carryout was unexpectedly reported at 1.417 billion bushels, 51 million above expectations. The only category change was a downward revision in US exports by 75 bushels, resulting in a 75 higher carryout. We thought the 75-million-bushel reduction
to exports was a little aggressive but crop year to date commitments are starting to flatten out with the recent 832,000 tons cancelled by China over the past three weeks.
US all-wheat carryout came in 5 million below expectations as there were no changes to USDA’s US 2022-23 balance sheet
new crop stocks
the US carryout for soybeans and corn, if they hold over the next 6-12 months, might become the primary driver for lower year over year crop year average futures prices. Long term we are bearish, and a grind lower for these commodities should keep wheat futures
in check. USDAs’ US all-wheat balance sheet is supportive, but a complete divorce from where soybeans and corn trend is not expected. Note new-crop global wheat stocks are expected to decrease only 0.7% from 2022-23. USDA
soybeans 335 million, 42 million bushels above expectations, a large buffer for domestic usage. Note USDA looks for US crush to expand 90 million bushels from 2022-23.
corn 2.222 billion, 128 million bushels above expectations.
all-wheat 556, 46 million bushels below expectations.
all-wheat production predicted by USDA may have peaked. We see lower production going forward unless we find larger spring and durum acres across the northern growing areas. HRW wheat production came in 77 million bushels below trade expectations, a sign the
US HRW wheat areas could be in much worse shape than previously thought.
looks for US soybean oil for biofuel to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion, a 7.8% increase. We think this could end up higher (our estimate is 12.7 billion pounds).
will fall across West Texas through the weekend, improving topsoil moisture but don’t discount local flooding. The northern US Plains will trend wetter through the weekend. The central US Great Plains will see net drying to some light rain. The weather is
favorable for much of the Midwest, but a couple light frost events may occur bias north over the next week. Brazil will remain dry over the next 10 days. Europe will experience heavy rain and flooding during the coming week from Italy into the eastern Adriatic
corn and soybean trend yields
estimates as of May 12
U.S. hard red winter wheat areas have received generalized rain of significance the past two days improving soil moisture and production potentials for winter and summer crops
reached 5.12 inches at Imperial, Nebraska while 1.00 to 3.07 inches occurred in other east-central and northeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska crop areas.
Texas will receive a soaking rain from Saturday into Tuesday bolstering soil moisture and changing the outlook for corn, sorghum and cotton
of 1.00 to 3.00 inches will occur across most of the region with local totals over 5.00 inches by Wednesday
will greatly improve planting moisture and create an environment for feedback moisture that will help to perpetuate showers and thunderstorms during the warmer days of spring and summer
Northern Plains precipitation is easing long term dryness
Montana, western North Dakota and many areas across South Dakota are receiving rain or soon will with sufficient amounts to greatly reduce dryness over the next few days
than 1.00 inch of rain has already occurred today in parts of western North Dakota while Hettinger, North Dakota reported more than 3.00 inches overnight
North Dakota and northern Minnesota along with Manitoba, Canada are advertised to receive lighter than previously expected rain this weekend
working delays are still expected, but the period required to dry the region once again may be shortened
Midwest and southeastern states will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine that will prove to be ideal for crop development and for plant development
Blacklands, Coastal Bend and South Texas will get some beneficial rainfall during the next week that should benefit corn, rice, sorghum, soybean and cotton development
will be slowed for a while
and the Pacific Northwest precipitation will be restricted for a while
warm to hot and dry weather is expected from the U.S. Pacific Northwest into British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan this weekend through much of next week