FI Evening Grain Comments 05/04/23

PDF Attached

Concerns
over additional US bank failures pressured US equities and rattled some outside commodity markets. WTI crude oil was moderately lower and USD higher. Soybeans and grains traded two-sided. Wheat rallied after light fund selling dried and ongoing Black Sea shipping
concerns. Corn closed mixed with a recovery in nearby contracts against new crop. Soybeans were near flat, and products traded lower.
There
were no surprises in today’s USDA export sales report. Friday is the start of the grain deal talks. They are expected to conclude next week. FAO will update their food price index overnight.

Weather

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

• West
  Texas received showers and thunderstorms again overnight with rainfall of 0.30 to 1.38 inches in the northeast half of the Texas Panhandle and in areas around Lubbock, Texas
• Rainfall
  of a trace to 0.50 inch occurred in other areas of the Panhandle southward into the Brownfield, Tahoka and Graham areas
• Mostly
  dry weather occurred farther to the south
• Much
  warmer temperatures will impact West Texas over the next several days with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Fahrenheit which will accelerate drying rates and undo some of the benefit of recent rain
• West
  Texas follow up rainfall is expected periodically during the next two weeks, but no general soaking is likely and soil moisture is not likely to improve greatly
  
• A
  few areas will get enough rain to improve planting conditions, but only in localized areas
• Most
  producers will wait to plant aggressively in hopes of seeing greater planting moisture and in hopes of benefiting from some late summer rain that is expected
• West-central
  and southwestern Plains rainfall will continue sporadic and light, but there will be enough shower activity to leave crop conditions at status quo
• Much
  warmer temperatures in the southern Plains over the next several days will keep evaporation rates high enough to negate some of the benefits that rain may bring in the near term
• Too
  much rain is expected in the northeastern Plains, upper Midwest and southeastern Canada’s Prairies over the next ten days
• The
  wet bias will delay farming activity and will bring the opportunities for fieldwork prior to the May 25 prevent plant date to a narrow 2-3 week period
• That
  makes weather in the second half of this month of critical importance for the region
• U.S.
  Pacific Northwest is expected to trend wetter and that will be ideal for future crop development especially in those areas still carrying a long term moisture deficit
• Eastern
  U.S. Midwest weather is advertised a little too wet by the computer forecast models, although some rain is expected
• Resulting
  rainfall for the two week period ending May 18 is likely too great for some areas in the region
• Warm
  temperatures and near to below average precipitation may lead to net drying for some areas
• A
  northwesterly flow pattern aloft near mid-month will help reduce temperatures, but the precipitation may continue lighter than usual
• U.S.
  Delta and southeastern states will see a mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks favoring good crop development and providing some brief periods of planting
  
• River
  flooding continues along the upper half of the Mississippi and in the Red River Basin of the North and this process will continue through much of this month
• Prevent
  plant is still a possibility for a part of these region’s and in Manitoba Canada, but much will be determined by rainfall that occurs later this month and in June
• A
  significant break from rain is needed along with warm temperatures to get fields in better shape for planting
• Southern
  Quebec and Ontario crop areas will begin warming up and drying down this weekend and next week
  
• The
  change will come in time to improve planting and general field working conditions in the second half of this month
• Canada’s
  Prairies will experience some unsettled weather in the coming week, but no change in drought status is expected, despite some beneficial showers in a few of the drier areas
• California
  will receive some rain and mountain snowfall during the coming week maintaining a strong potential for flooding as snow melts in the mountains and then new rain and snow fall
• Center
  west and center south Brazil will continue dry biased over the next week to ten days
• Any
  showers that pop up will be brief and light
• Net
  drying is expected with Mato Grosso and Goias being the two areas to watch most closely since topsoil moisture is already marginally adequate to slightly short
• Far
  northeastern Argentina to Rio Grande do Sul will receive significant rain this weekend into Monday possibly resulting in some flooding
• Unharvested
  rice and some late season corn could be negatively impacted, although most crops will survive without an issue
• Rain
  is still needed in northern Minas Gerais, southern Bahia and in a few areas of Tocantins, Brazil, but it is too late in the season for significant rain to offer much change in crop conditions
• Argentina
  rainfall from northeastern Cordoba into Entre Rios in the next couple of days will prove beneficial, although some delay to summer crop harvesting is expected
• Argentina
  still has a big need for generalized rain ahead of wheat planting late this month and in June
• Coffee,
  citrus and sugarcane in Brazil are maturing favorably with some early harvesting already under way
• Coffee
  and citrus production should be high this year while sugarcane yields may be off a little bit because of too much rain at times in the heart of the production region and late season dryness in the minor areas of the north
• Western
  Australia rainfall was reduced for this weekend and next week by both the GFS and ECMWF models
• Western
  Australia needs greater rainfall to improve wheat, barley and canola planting and establishment conditions
• Southeastern
  Australia is plenty moist for winter crop planting and early emergence, but greater rain is still needed for some areas
• Summer
  crop harvesting in east-central Australia is advancing well with little change likely
• India
  is predicted to receive less rain and experience warmer temperatures as time moves along during the next week to ten days
• Too
  much moisture has fallen in the past week and some areas are suffering some winter crop quality declines
• A
  tropical cyclone may evolve in the Bay of Bengal this weekend and may threaten Myanmar sugarcane and rice production potentials
• Northeastern
  Algeria and northern Tunisia were advertised with less rainfall over the next ten days – these changes were needed, and the change will likely verify
• Most
  of North Africa is still facing lighter than usual soil moisture and precipitation that has hurt production potential this season
• Spain
  and Portugal, like North Africa, will remain drier than usual over the next ten days maintaining a strong demand for irrigation and stressing some crops
• Northern
  Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands may receive some significant precipitation in the second week of the outlook, but confidence is low that the region will get “substantial” precipitation amounts
• A
  drier than usual bias may linger for a while, despite some showers
• Central
  Europe will become quite wet next week from Italy and the western Balkan Countries into Czech Republic and Slovakia
• Local
  flooding will be possible
• Other
  areas in Europe will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks favoring crop development and fieldwork
• Cold
  weather will continue to impact northeastern Europe over the next week with the next coldest period of time coming up late this week into early next week
  
• No
  crop damage is likely except possibly to flowering fruit trees
• Europe
  and the western CIS will receive frequent bouts of rain during the next ten days
  
• All
  of eastern China’s agricultural areas will receive rain at one time or another during the next two weeks.
• East-central
  and southeastern parts of the nation will be wettest, but the rain will be spread out enough to limit the incidence of flooding
• Crop
  conditions should stay mostly favorable, although less rain is needed in rapeseed areas to protect crop quality as the crop matures and is harvested
• Northeast
  China will be driest
• Xinjiang,
  China continues to battle periods of cool weather and needs to warm up and be consistently warm to support cotton, corn and other crop development.
  
• Some
  warming is expected over the next few days, but a new surge of cool air is expected late this weekend and next week dropping temperatures back to the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit in the key crop areas of the west
• Much
  cooler conditions are expected in the far northeast where some wet snow has been reported recently
• Mainland
  areas of Southeast Asia are getting more routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms, but resulting rainfall has continued to be lighter than usual
  
• Monsoonal
  precipitation usually begins in the south late this month
• Indonesia
  and Malaysia will continue to experience frequent bouts of rain over the next ten days – no area is expected to become too dry or excessively wet
• Philippines
  rainfall will be timely, but there is need for greater rain in the north
• Middle
  East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east
• The
  environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture
• Wheat
  production was mostly good this year
• South
  Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue
• Today’s
  forecast is a little wetter than that of Wednesday for eastern parts of the nation
• Cotton
  areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas
• Some
  showers are possible during the second week of the forecast
• Drought
  continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions
• East-central
  Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
• Central
  Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was 0.23 and it should move erratically lower over the next several days