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Monday will be a holiday for many countries.  Happy Labor Day.



lowered our 2022-23 crop year price estimates for the complex and grains.


of month short covering lifted most CBOT agriculture markets higher. We read Brazil soybean premiums started to rebound after sliding last week. This added to the strength for soybean futures. Very good US soybean oil use for biofuel production during the
month of February and higher energy markets supported soybean oil. Nearby corn saw short covering, but the back months fell on advancing US planting progress. Wheat saw technical buying.  The US Midwest will see rain bias northeastern areas today, central
areas over the weekend, and again northeastern areas Monday through Tuesday. Brazil north central and northwestern areas will start to dry down next week after seeing rain on and off through Tuesday. For the US Great Plains, precipitation will favor southern
MN, eastern NE, much of KS and OK, and eastern TX today. Much of the Great Plains will be dry Sunday through Tuesday.


estimates as of April 28




7 days


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Weather Inc.


  • Canada’s
    western Prairies will become quite warm to hot in this coming week with little to no rain in most of the Prairies
    • Eastern
      parts of the Prairies will be cool through the weekend and then warmer next week
    • Extreme
      high temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s Fahrenheit will impact the western Prairies with drought region of Alberta and western Saskatchewan suffering most from the warm and dry conditions and a strong southeast wind as well
    • Ten
      days will pass without significant rain in many areas resulting in an expanding level of concern over long term weather for the Prairies since this is normally the start of the aggressive planting season
  • Drying
    and warming in Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will be good for spring wheat, sunseed and other crop planting initially; however, the region will be closely monitored for signs of becoming too dry
    • Net
      drying is expected for the next ten days
  • Western
    Russia has seen beneficial drying for a while this month and that helped improve spring planting conditions; fieldwork has likely advanced well in recent days
    • Winter
      crop development continues to advance favorably
  • Rain
    will soon be returning to most of western Russia, eastern Ukraine, Belarus, Russia’s Southern Region and the Baltic States resulting in a slowdown in spring fieldwork, but the environment will be good in maintaining a favorable moisture profile after recent
  • China
    has had well distributed rain in the Yellow River Basin and western North China Plain this spring, but there is need for more rain in eastern parts of the North China Plain and areas north northeast into Inner Mongolia where the China Climate Center suggests
    a little pocket of drought has evolved
    • Additional
      showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Yellow River Basin over the next ten days, but Shandong, eastern Hebei, parts of Liaoning and areas north into interior eastern Inner Mongolia will stay drier biased
  • China’s
    Yangtze River Basin and especially areas to the south are quite wet even though recent rainfall has been limited
    • A
      new wave or two of rain coming up in the next ten days will keep the ground quite wet which may benefit rice, but could threaten the quality of some early season rapeseed.
  • India
    weather will become unsettled once again with greater than usual rain likely in the far south, eastern and far northern parts of the nation in the next couple of weeks
    • There
      may be some concern over crop quality for unharvested winter crops and the nation’s weather should be closely monitored
    • Temperatures
      will be cooler than usual because of the precipitation and a low pressure trough that will be present aloft over the nation
  • Middle
    East soil moisture is greatest in Turkey, but there is need for more moisture in areas to the south and east
    • The
      environment is not critical, but cotton and rice would benefit from greater rain and improved soil moisture
    • Wheat
      production was mostly good this year
  • Australia’s
    greatest rain in the next two weeks will occur today and Saturday in parts of New South Wales and Queensland, but it will be too brief and light for a lasting increase in soil moisture.
    • The
      improved topsoil moisture may briefly support some winter crop planting and pre-planting fieldwork, but much more rain is needed
    • Otherwise,
      precipitation will occur mostly near the south Coast over the next ten days.
  • Western
    Australia will be the state to watch closely for signs of dryness over the next few weeks
    • Some
      timely rain is expected eventually, but restricted moisture flow is expected for a while
  • Argentina
    rainfall is expected to remain limited for the next two weeks, although it will not be completely dry
    • A
      boost in precipitation is needed in wheat production areas to support planting in late May and especially June, but there is plenty of time for rain to develop
  • Brazil
    weather remains very good for Safrinha corn and cotton
    • Rain
      may be needed in the second half of May to bolster soil moisture in support reproduction in the driest areas
      • Today’s
        soil moisture is nearly ideal
  • South
    Africa rainfall will be infrequent and light enough over the next ten days to support most late season crop needs while allowing some harvest progress to continue
  • North
    Africa, Portugal and Spain are still too dry and need significant rain
    • Not
      much rain is expected for a while, although some showers may impact Tunisia and northeastern Algeria briefly early next week and some other showers may be possible in Spain after day 10 (May 7)
  • Cotton
    areas from southern Mali to Burkina Faso need significant rain to support cotton planting and establishment in unirrigated areas
  • Cotton
    in Xinjiang China needs consistent warm temperatures; fieldwork has advanced relatively well, but cool weather is not likely bringing the crop up as well a normal and crop development  is unlikely to advance as well as usual without changes
  • Drought
    continues in central and western Mexico while recent rain in the east has improved crop and field conditions
  • Follow
    up precipitation developed in U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas overnight and it will continue into Saturday morning will produce another 0.10 to 0.60 inch of rain and locally more expected
    • Up
      to 0.30 inch had occurred through dawn today
    • The
      northern Texas Panhandle could receive local rain totals of 0.50 to 1.00 inch
    • The
      moisture will still prove to be welcome and very helpful in supporting spring and summer crop planting and some improvement in winter wheat development, but more rain will be needed
      • Most
        of the precipitation expected will be too light to last very long, but some short term crop improvements are possible
  • Eastern
    U.S. Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will be quite cool over the coming week keeping soil temperatures low
    • Warming
      is expected in the Plains late next week and in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states late during the following weekend and into the second week of May
    • The
      second week of May is expected to be seasonably warm in many of these areas
  • Planting
    prospects across the U.S. Midwest will improve greatly next week as producers recognize the warming trend expected after next week and lasting at least a full week
    • Aggressive
      planting should occur then, but probably not as much in this first week of the outlook
  • West
    Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will not get enough rain in the next ten days to seriously bolster soil moisture, but enough may eventually occur to settle the dust and begin improving topsoil moisture in a part of the region
  • Cotton,
    corn and sorghum production areas in the remainder of Texas will see improving weather for the planting, emergence and establishment of all summer crops after rain falls and the temperatures begin to warm
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada wheat, corn and soybean areas will be cooler than usual during the next ten days with waves of rain
    • The
      moisture will slow fieldwork and warming in the region will also be slow to evolve
  • California
    may be facing another period of stormy weather in the second and third weeks of the forecast as the weather pattern in North America changes
    • A
      close watch on the situation is warranted since significant rainfall and melting snow could lead to some flooding near rivers and small streams
  • Snow
    on the ground in eastern North Dakota and Minnesota will linger for a while longer, but it should melt away with warmer weather during the next several days
    • Some
      melting will occur this weekend, but it is not likely to be as warm as it may get a week from now
      • Fieldwork
        may still be another week away after the remaining snow melts and if temperatures warm as advertised except in flooded areas in which fieldwork will be delayed for a longer period of time
  • Ecuador,
    far northern Peru and southwestern Colombia may be subjected to periodic bouts of flooding as ocean temperatures rise significantly ahead of the developing El Nino event
    • Some
      flooding has already occurred and more should be expected
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -2.15 and it should move erratically over the next several days

World Weather, INC.


Ag calendar

April 29:

  • Vietnam’s
    coffee, rice and rubber export data

May 1:

  • USDA
    export inspections – corn, soybeans, wheat, 11am
  • USDA
    soybean crush, corn for ethanol, DDGS production, 3pm
  • US
    winter wheat condition, 4pm
  • US
    planting data for corn, cotton, spring wheat and soybeans, 4pm
    Labor day holiday in several countries, including UK, Germany, Argentina, India, Brazil, China, Singapore and Hong Kong

May 2:

  • US
    Purdue Agriculture Sentiment
  • Malaysia’s
    April 1-30 palm oil exports
  • New
    Zealand global dairy trade auction
    China, Vietnam

May 3: