FI Evening Grain Comments 04/26/23

PDF Attached

 

USD was down 38 points, WTI crude off $2.91 and US equities mixed, as of 2:40 PM CT. bear spreading was seen again in soybean meal and soybeans. Soybean oil ended higher on product spreading. Corn and wheat ended lower on slowing demand, ample global grain supplies, and international competition. Welcome rain fell across the US Great Plains over the past day. Parts of the Midwest will see improving planting conditions over the next two weeks. Thursday’s US economic data will include GPD, initial claims and pending home sales.

 

Fund estimates as of April 26

 

Nov/Dec soybean/corn ratio

 

 

StatsCan plantings

Table below corrects 2022 to 2023 percentage changes. 

All-wheat area projected highest since 2001.

The crop total for the 9 commodities we monitor is a record (see attached table after the text).

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/daily-quotidien/230426/dq230426a-eng.pdf?st=Opf1NtX-

 

 

Weather

 

 

World Weather Inc.

WEATHER TO WATCH

• Abundant rain will fall in drought areas from Colorado into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during the balance of this week with today and Friday the next two wetter days
• Rainfall overnight varied from 1.00 to 2.39 inches in northwestern and some central Oklahoma locations while up to 1.00 inch in a few areas in the Texas Panhandle and southeastern Colorado.
• Rainfall of 0.20 to 0.90 inch was common elsewhere
• Additional rainfall of 0.50 to 1.50 inches will fall today with locally more in central Oklahoma
• Rain Friday will vary from 0.10 to 0.60 inch with local totals to 1.50 inches and that precipitation may occur a little farther to the south
• Follow up precipitation is expected in hard red winter wheat production areas next week as frontal systems pass across the region; although rainfall will not be nearly as concentrated and significant  as that of this week
• The moisture will still prove to be welcome and very helpful in supporting spring and summer crop planting and some improvement in winter wheat development
• U.S. Plains, Midwest, Delta and southeastern states will be quite cool over the coming week keeping soil temperatures low
• Warming is expected in the Plains next week and in the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states late next week and into the following weekend
• The second week of May is expected to be seasonably warm in many of these areas
• Planting prospects across the U.S. Midwest will improve greatly next week as producers recognize the warming trend expected during the first ten days of May and the light moisture in parts of the Midwest
• Aggressive planting is expected
• West Texas cotton, corn and sorghum areas will not get enough rain in the next ten days to seriously bolster soil moisture, but enough may eventually occur to settle the dust and begin improving topsoil moisture
• Cotton, corn and sorghum production areas in the remainder of Texas will see improving weather for the planting, emergence and establishment of all summer crops after rain falls and the temperatures begin to warm
• Western Canada’s Prairies will be warmer than usual for a while and that will raise soil temperatures, but dryness in the soil in parts of east-central and southern Alberta and west-central and interior southern Saskatchewan will prevail
• Early season pea, wheat and canola planting is expected to begin soon, and it will become more widespread next week
• Ontario and Quebec wheat, corn and soybean areas will be cooler than usual during the next ten days with waves of rain
• The moisture will slow fieldwork and warming in the region will also be slow to evolve
• California may be facing another period of stormy weather in the second and third weeks of the forecast as weather pattern in North America change
• A close watch on the situation is warranted since significant rainfall and melting snow could lead to some flooding near rivers and small streams
• Snow on the ground in eastern North Dakota and Minnesota will linger for a while longer, but it should melt away with warmer weather next week
• Some melting will occur this week, but it is not likely to be as warm as may get a week to ten days from now
• Fieldwork may still be another week away after the remaining snow melts and if temperatures warm as advertised.
• Eastern Mexico’s drought has been eased by recent showers and thunderstorms and additional rain is needed to more completely end moisture deficits
• The remainder of Mexico, however, continues in a notable drought excepting parts of the far south and perhaps the far northwest
• Argentina will continue experience lighter than usual precipitation for at least another ten days
• The environment will be good for summer crop maturation and harvest progress, but moisture will be needed during May to adequately restore soil moisture for winter wheat planting that will begin aggressively in June
• Brazil’s greatest rain in the next ten days will be in the interior south where a frontal boundary or two will generate periodic rainfall that will be supportive of Safrinha crop development.
• Some timely rain is needed in center west crop areas to ensure late planted corn and cotton have sufficient moisture to reproduce with later in May and early June
• Ecuador, far northern Peru and southwestern Colombia may be subjected to periodic bouts of flooding as ocean temperatures rise significantly ahead of the developing El Nino event
• Some flooding has already occurred and more should be expected
• China rainfall during the past week was substantial and has brought topsoil conditions to the point of saturation with moisture.
• Some planting delay has evolved, but drier weather in the north over the next few days will allowing the necessary drying to occur so that farmers can get back into their fields
• Winter wheat and other winter crops have benefited greatly from this year’s wetter than usual spring and that should translate into higher than usual yields for the Yellow River Basin
• Rapeseed areas near and south of the Yangtze River are a little too wet and will need drier weather soon to protect production
• Yunnan is still in a drought, although rain prospects will begin improving during the next ten days
• Xinjiang, China has been warming and some corn, cotton and other crop planting should be under way
• China’s Climate Center has declared drought conditions in a part of the northeastern provinces due to restricted precipitation recently
• World Weather, Inc. believes the declaration may be a little premature, but the area is not expecting large amounts of precipitation for a while – which is not unusual for late April and early May
• India’s scattered showers expected over the next couple of weeks will result in a little greater than usual rainfall for some areas and that will prove disruptive to winter crop maturation and harvest progress
• Drier weather may be needed to protect unharvested winter crop quality
• Northern Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will need rain soon after a bout of dry and warm weather occurs in the next ten days
• No area is considered to be too dry today and the drier and warmer conditions should prove ideal for the planting of sunseed, spring wheat and other crops
• North Africa, Portugal and Spain are still dealing with drought
• Irrigated crops are performing fine, but there is concern over water supply
• Dryland crops need moisture to protect production and crop quality
• Not much rain will fall for the next ten days
• Most other areas in Europe and the western CIS have favorable soil moisture and a good crop prospect for spring 2023
• Recent drying in western Russia has improved field working conditions and firmed the topsoil
• Rain is expected over the next ten days will restore wetter field conditions and some delay to planting and other farm activity may result
• Middle East crop conditions vary greatly with Turkey having the best soil moisture while Syria and Afghanistan have the greatest need of moisture
• Australia precipitation has been limited recently, but showers will evolve in the south this week to moisten the topsoil once again and allow better planting and emergence conditions in some areas, but not all
• Favorable summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected in the east-central parts of the nation through Friday of this week with some disruption expected next week
• Western Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next few weeks
• Southern Australia will get a little rain this week supporting planting of wheat, barley and canola, though more rain will be needed
• Australia sugarcane production areas have experienced less than usual rainfall in recent weeks and months
• A lighter than usual precipitation bias will continue for an extended period of time, although it will not be completely dry
• South Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• Cotton areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting
• Other west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
• East-central Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
• Central Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
• Today’s Southern Oscillation Index was -3.04 and it should move erratically over the next several days

Source: World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg Ag calendar

Wednesday, April 26:

• EIA weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
• Euro Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, Romania, day 1
• Argus Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 2
• Commodity Trading Week conference, London, day 2
• Canada’s StatsCan to release seeded area data for wheat, barley, canola and soybeans
• Brazil’s Conab to publish cane, sugar and ethanol production data

Thursday, April 27:

• USDA weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
• Euro Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 2
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Argus Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 3

Friday, April 28:

• ICE Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
• CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
• Euro Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 3
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• US agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Saturday, April 29:

• Vietnam’s coffee, rice and rubber export data

Source: Bloomberg and FI

 

 

Macros

97 Counterparties Take $2.280 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op. (prev $2.309 Tln, 103 Bids)

Brent Crude Erases All Price Gains Since Surprise OPEC+ Cut

US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 21: 3.7% (prev -8.8%)

US 30-Yr MBA Mortgage Rate Apr 21: 6.55% (prev 6.43%)

US Durable Goods Orders Mar P: 3.2% (est 0.7%; prev -0.1%)

US Durables Ex Transportation Mar P: 0.3% (est -0.2%; prev -0.1%)

US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Mar P: -0.4% (est -0.1%; prev -0.1%)

US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Mar P: -0.4% (est 0.1%; prev -0.1%)

US Wholesale Inventories (M/M) Mar P: 0.1% (est 0.1%; prev 0.1%)

US Advance Goods Trade Balance Mar: -$84.6B (est -$90.0B; prev -$91.6B)

 

US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 21-Apr: -5.054M (est -1.500M; prev -4.581M)

– Distillate Inventories: -577K (est -1.078M; prev -355K)

– Cushing OK Crude Inventories: +319K (prev -1.088M)

– Gasoline Inventories: -2.408M (est -1.500M; prev +1.299M)

– Refinery Utilization: 0.30% (est 0.50%; prev 1.70%)

 

Corn

·         Corn futures traded two-sided, ending lower on cheaper international supplies and talk of improving US planting weather. It was mostly dry for the US yesterday and today across most of the US. US WTI was under pressure today and by 1:50 pm CT was down $2.90/barrel at $74.20, lowest since end of March for the June position.

·         Trade estimates for weekly export sales have a wide range of 100,000 to 1,200,000 ton range for corn, on a combined old and new-crop basis.

·         Brazil’s AgMin sees 2023-24 ethanol production at 33.17 billion liters, up 5.9% from the previous season.

·         The USDA Broiler Report showed eggs set in the US down slightly and chicks placed down 1 percent. Cumulative placements from the week ending January 7, 2023 through April 22, 2023 for the United States were 2.99 billion. Cumulative placements were up slightly from the same period a year earlier.

·         US ethanol production dropped a large 57,000 barrels to 967,000 and stocks decreased 987,000 barrels to 24.306 million. A poll looked for a 18,000 decline in output and stocks to increase 18,000.  Ethanol production is down on average 9,000 barrels over a 4 week period and stocks down 305,000 barrels. September 2022 to date ethanol production is running 3.3 percent below a year ago level. US gasoline stocks were 221.1 million barrels, off 2.4 million from the previous week and implied demand up 992,000 barrels to 9.511 million. US ethanol blended into total finished motor gasoline was running at 91.5%, up from 90.9% week earlier.

 

 

 

US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 21-Apr: -5.054M (est -1.500M; prev -4.581M)

– Distillate Inventories: -577K (est -1.078M; prev -355K)

– Cushing OK Crude Inventories: +319K (prev -1.088M)

– Gasoline Inventories: -2.408M (est -1.500M; prev +1.299M)

– Refinery Utilization: 0.30% (est 0.50%; prev 1.70%)

 

Export developments.

·         None reported

 

Updated 04/25/23

July corn $5.00-$7.00

December corn $4.75-$6.50

 

Soybeans

·         CBOT soybeans ended mixed with the K/N soybean and soybean meal spread getting hit hard again today, in part to positioning ahead of deliveries and weak spot global demand. The November soybeans gained 12.25 cents over the soon expiring May contract. Soybean oil ended higher from product spreading.

·         Trade estimates for soybeans on a combined crop-year basis is a wide 75,000 to 650,000 tons.

·         StatsCan Canadian canola plantings of 21.597 million acres were 200,000 acres below expectations and up 0.9 percent* from 2022. (corrected from this morning)

·         Palm oil futures hit a one-month low.

·         Indonesia will set its CPO reference price at $955.53 per ton for May 1 to May 15, up from $932.69 LH April. The CPO export tax will be unchanged at $124 per ton and export levy at $100 per ton.

·         Argentina apparently introduced a special sunflower and barley FX rate yesterday at the same rate of soybeans. Producer selling for both commodities picked up after the announcement.

·         Argentina’s peso rebounded today to around 470 after hitting a record low in the black market of near 490 pesos per USD, compared to about 400 from a week ago.  The official rate was around 220 pesos.

·         EU rapeseed imports so far for the 2022-23 season that started in July reached 6.47 million tons by April 22, up 50% from 4.31 million a year earlier. Soybean imports were 10.06 million tons, down 13% compared with 11.50 million a year earlier. Soybean meal were 12.71 million tons, 5% below the 13.35 million a year ago. Palm oil imports stood at 3.21 million tons, down 22%.

 

USDA Attaché: Brazil oilseed complex update

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Annual_Brasilia_Brazil_BR2023-0007

 

Export Developments

• No fresh export developments. Some traders are eyeing Brazil’s lineups to see if additional US purchases were conducted.
• USDA seeks 860 tons of vegetable oil in 4 liter cans for use in export programs. Shipment was scheduled for Jun 1-30 (June 16 to July 15 for plants located at ports). All offers are due by early May 2.

 

Updated 04/25/23

Soybeans – July $13.50-$14.75, November $12.00-$15.00

Soybean meal – July $375-$500, December $325-$500

Soybean oil – July 48.50-54.00, December 49-58

 

 

Wheat

·         Chicago wheat futures ended sharply lower on large planting prospects and rain falling across a good portion of the dry areas of the Great Plains. Prices were higher earlier in part to general concerns over the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

·         StatsCan Canadian acreage estimates were above trade expectations for all-wheat, durum and spring wheat. All-wheat of 27.0 million acres are up 6.2%* from 2022. Table on page one. (corrected from this morning).

·         Nearby Chicago wheat settled near its lowest level since July 2021, on a rolling contract basis.

·         KC wheat fell to a 6-week low in part to the StatsCan estimates.

·         Trade estimate for old crop all-wheat for USDA export sales is 75,000 to 400,000 tons, and new-crop zero to 225,000 tons.

·         A Bloomberg article cited Russia is stepping up tactical-nuclear threats with Belarus training.

·         A Russian source told Reuters the US granted JP Morgan permission to process (selected) payments for the Russian Agricultural Bank for grain exports, but Russia again said they want full access to the SWIFT payment system, not a case by case basis. The grain deal is set to expire May 18.

·         Russia will lower the weekly export duty for wheat by 1.4% to ,678.9 rubles per ton starting April 26 from 5,759.5 rubles per ton. Indicative price was $283/ton. 

·         The European Commission will ban Ukraine grain and oilseeds exports to Romania until June 5. Poland plans to ban imports of Ukraine grain for domestic consumption through the end of 2023. Earlier this week Hungary was looking for a Ukraine export ban until the end of the year.

·         Ukraine’s AgMin said grain exports so far for the 2022-23 season were 41.1 million tons as of April 26, down from 45.7 million tons about a year ago. That included about 14.2 million tons of wheat, 24.2 million tons of corn and about 2.5 million tons of barley.

·         EU soft wheat exports so far for 2022-23 reached 25.02 million tons by April 22, up 10% from the 22.81 million a year earlier. EU barley exports totaled 5.09 million tons, down 23% from 6.65 million a year ago.

·         September Paris milling wheat officially closed down up 0.25 euro, or 0.1%, at 242.75 euros a ton (about $267.87/ton).

·         The strike this week in Canada among major grain handlers may start to support global wheat  prices. Wheat Growers Association wants foreign workers to be allowed to weigh and inspect grain on the west coast to keep grain flowing during the strike.

 

USDA Attaché: Argentina grain update

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Buenos%20Aires_Argentina_AR2023-0005

 

Export Developments.

·         South Korean flour millers bought around 77,000 tons of milling wheat from the United States and 50,000 tons from Australia, for shipment from the United States for shipment between July 1-July 31 and 50,000 tons from Australia for shipment between Aug. 1-Aug. 31.

The US included:

-21,295 tons of soft white wheat between 9.5% to 11% protein at an estimated $272.24 a ton

-500 tons of soft white wheat 9% protein bought at $280.46 a tonne

-8,640 tons of hard red winter wheat of 11.5% protein at $339.84 a ton

-14,565 tons of northern spring wheat of 14% protein bought at $341.67 a ton.

-8,700 tons of soft white wheat of 9.5% to 11% protein at $268.70 a ton

-670 tons of soft white wheat of 8.5% protein bought at $268.70 a ton

-10,520 tons of hard red winter wheat of 11.5% protein bought at $334.70 a ton

-12,110 tons of northern spring/dark northern spring wheat bought at $338.70 ton.

Australian purchase was standard white in the low $290s a ton, Australian hard wheat in the low $320s a ton and Australian standard white in the high $280s a ton.

·         Tunisia bought about 75,000 tons of soft wheat, one consignment at an estimated $304.80 a ton c&f and two consignments at $309.89 and $311.19 a ton c&f. Shipment was sought between June 5 and July 5, depending on origin.

·         Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of milling wheat today from only the United States, Australia and Canada.

·         Results awaited: China plans to sell 40,000 tons of wheat from state reserves on April 26.

·         Algeria’s OAIC seeks at least 50,000 tons of wheat on Thursday, valid until Friday, for May 16 through July 31 shipment.

·         Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin wheat on May 2.

·         Jordan seeks 120,000 tons of feed barley May 3 for October through FH November shipment.

 

Rice/Other

·         Bloomberg: Sugar Hits Fresh 11-Year High as India Cuts Output Estimates

 

Updated 04/25/23

Chicago – July $6.00-$7.00

KC – July $7.50-8.75

MN – July $7.90-9.00