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Lower
trade in soybeans and higher trade in back month corn contracts on spreading. The US will see wet and cool temperatures this week slowing corn plantings. We think it’s too early to talk about a good shift from corn to soybean plantings. Slowing demand for
US soybeans and products weighted on the complex. Wheat ended lower from rain forecast for the Great Plains but uncertainty over the Black Sea grain export deal pared some losses for the Chicago contracts.

 

Fund
estimates as of April 25

 

Weather

Map

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Map

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World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • China’s
    moisture profile in key crop areas is looking very good with well-timed precipitation of late in the Yellow River Basin and a part of the North China Plain
    • It
      has been a little wet south of the Yangtze River with some damage suspected from recent bouts of flash flooding
    • Spring
      planting prospects are very good with little change expected into the first half of May
  • Xinjiang,
    China has cooled off once again, but warming is expected for a little while in the latter part of this week and into the weekend
    • Cotton,
      corn and a host of other crops produced in the province need persistent warm temperatures with a few infrequent bouts of rain
    • Another
      bout of cooling is expected late in the weekend and early next week
  • Yunnan,
    China is still in a drought with little rain expected
    • This
      has impacted early season corn and rice as well as some sugarcane and other crops
    • No
      relief is expected for a while
  • China’s
    Meteorological Agency has declared a drought in the Northeastern Provinces, but soil moisture is not far from normal, and some rain is expected
  • India’s
    scattered showers expected over the next couple of weeks will result in a little greater than usual rainfall and that will prove disruptive to winter crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Drier
      weather may be needed to protect unharvested winter crop quality
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and southern parts of Russia’s eastern New Lands will need rain soon after a bout of dry and warm weather occurs in the next ten days
    • No
      area is considered to be too dry today and the drier and warmer conditions should prove ideal for the planting of sunseed, spring wheat and other crops
  • North
    Africa, Portugal and Spain are still dealing with drought
    • Irrigated
      crops are performing fine, but there is concern over water supply
    • Dryland
      crops need moisture to protect production and crop quality
  • Most
    other areas in Europe and the western CIS have favorable soil moisture and a good crop prospect for spring 2023
  • Middle
    East crop conditions vary greatly with Turkey having the best soil moisture while Syria and Afghanistan have the greatest need of moisture
  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat areas will get needed rain today into Friday
    • Most
      areas will get rain by Thursday with Tuesday and Wednesday wettest
      • Areas
        from Colorado to the heart of Oklahoma and north-central Texas will be wettest with rainfall of 0.75 to 2.00 inches resulting and a few local totals of 2.00 to 3.00 inches
      • Southern
        Kansas and northern Oklahoma will be wettest
    • Nebraska
      and northeastern wheat areas of Kansas will be driest
    • Rainfall
      in the Texas Panhandle will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches in the northeast half of the region while amounts in the southwest will vary up to 0.50 inch
    • Wheat
      development and yield potentials will improve following the rain, although some of the driest unirrigated fields have already lost production potential that cannot be recovered
    • Summer
      crop planting conditions should improve following the storm
    • Light
      rain and drizzle will impact the region Friday with another trace to 0.50 inch resulting
    • Follow
      up showers will occur briefly in the first week of May
  • West
    Texas will get some relief from dryness this week, but mostly in the rolling Plains where rainfall of 0.50 to 1.50 inches are expected
    • Most
      of the High and Low Plains will miss out on significant rain, although a trace to 0.25 inch is expected with a few local totals to 0.65 inch possible in the northeastern low Plains
    • Rainfall
      potentials may improve for the high Plains region in the first week of May, but a general soaking does not seem very likely
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks supporting fieldwork and crop development
  • U.S.
    Midwest will see a favorable pattern of sun and rain during the next two weeks allowing summer crop planting to advance, although soil temperatures will remain below average restricting drying rates at times
    • Cool
      soil temperatures and periods of rain will restrict new crop development and may further leave reason to delay planting a little longer
    • Improved
      weather is expected late in the first week of May with warmer temperatures expected
  • U.S.
    temperatures in the Midwest and Plains will be cooler than usual during the next ten days with some of the coolness lingering in the east through the balance of the second week ending May 9
    • Warming
      is expected in the western United States this week with some of that warmer than usual weather reaching the Great Plains late next week
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will be cooler than usual this week with rain, drizzle and some wet snow likely in the east
    • The
      precipitation will be light, but when added to the runoff from recent snow it will raise the potential for serious flooding in the lower Red River Basin
    • Drier
      and warmer weather is needed and some of that should evolve during the second week of the two-week outlook
  • East-central
    and interior southern Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan, Canada will remain too dry for most of the two week forecast period
  • Ontario
    and Quebec wheat, corn and soybean areas will be cooler than usual during the next ten days with waves of rain
    • The
      moisture will slow fieldwork and warming in the region will also be slow to evolve
  • California
    and the southwestern desert areas will be dry and warmer than usual during the coming week
  • Australia
    precipitation has been limited recently, but showers will evolve in the south this week to moisten the topsoil once again and allow better planting and emergence conditions in some areas, but not all
    • Favorable
      summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected in the east-central parts of the nation through Friday of this week with some disruption expected next week
    • Western
      Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next few weeks
    • Southern
      Australia will get a little rain this week supporting planting of wheat, barley and canola, though more rain will be needed
  • Australia
    sugarcane production areas have experienced less than usual rainfall in recent weeks and months
    • A
      lighter than usual precipitation bias will continue for an extended period of time, although it will not be completely dry
  • Argentina
    rainfall will continue lighter than usual through the next ten days to two weeks resulting in a very good environment for summer crop maturation and harvest progress
    • Some
      periodic rain is anticipated, but the disruptions to fieldwork will be brief and no harm will come to summer crop conditions
  • Brazil
    weather will continue to be favorable over the next two weeks
    • Timely
      rainfall is expected in many areas favoring Safrinha corn and cotton
    • Soil
      moisture should be sufficient to carry on normal crop development in areas where corn, rice, sugarcane, coffee and citrus are still developing
    • Winter
      crop planting should advance swiftly
  • South
    Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Cotton
    areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting
    • Other
      west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Much
    of Mexico remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain improving crop and field working conditions
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -3.21 and it should continue to move lower over the next few days.

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
April 26:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • Euro
    Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, Romania, day 1
  • Argus
    Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 2
  • Commodity
    Trading Week conference, London, day 2
  • Canada’s
    StatsCan to release seeded area data for wheat, barley, canola and soybeans
  • Brazil’s
    Conab to publish cane, sugar and ethanol production data

Thursday,
April 27:

  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Euro
    Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 2
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • Argus
    Biofuels & Feedstocks Asia Conference, Singapore, day 3

Friday,
April 28:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • Euro
    Grain Hub Exchange & Forum, Bucharest, day 3
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • US
    agricultural prices paid, received, 3pm

Saturday,
April 29:

  • Vietnam’s
    coffee, rice and rubber export data

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

CME
Resetting of Price Limits for Grain, Oilseed and Lumber Futures

SBO
from 40.50 to 40.00

Soybeans
to $1.00 to $1.05

Crush
from $2.155 to $2.150
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