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Follow
through selling today for US soybean complex and grains from the resumption in Black Sea grain export inspections. WTI crude oil was down $1.87, USD was 15 points lower, and US equities lower. Parts of the dry areas of US HRW wheat country will see rain over
the next five days.
U.S.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC): (Reuters)
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SAYS ENSO (EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
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SAYS ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING, FOLLOWED BY 62% CHANCE OF EL NIÑO DEVELOPING DURING MAY-JULY 2023
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SAYS A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF EL NIÑO BY THE FALL
World
Weather Inc.
-
U.S.
hard red winter wheat production areas will see three waves of precipitation during the next ten days, but drought busting rain in the west is not very likely -
The
southwestern Plains will continue driest over the forecast period -
Central
and eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma will be wettest -
All
of the moisture will be welcome, but the west will need much more – especially in the southwest -
ECMWF
forecast was too wet in the central Plains overnight -
Model
adjustments are expected over the next few days that will lighten up some of the predicted rain -
West
Texas drought is not likely to get much relief in the next ten days, although a few showers are expected as the central and southeastern Plains are impacted by three separate events
-
Rolling
Plains rainfall will be great enough to improve topsoil moisture in support of spring planting -
Low
Plains shower activity will be restricted, but some rain will be possible -
High
Plains area of West Texas will be driest, but a few showers cannot be ruled out periodically -
Snowstorm
in eastern Canada’s Prairies has left behind 3 to 8 inches of snow in general – so far – with the Weyburn area of southeastern Saskatchewan reporting up to 16 inches -
Most
of the snow has been in western Manitoba and the eastern two-thirds of Saskatchewan
-
Considerable
blowing and drifting of snow has occurred and there have been reports of some snow melt relatively quickly after falling especially in Manitoba where the ground was warmer -
Moisture
totals so far have varied up to 0.68 inch -
Eastern
Manitoba was snow free this morning -
Very
light snow fell in southern Alberta, but the change in soil moisture was minimal -
Canada’s
eastern Prairies will continue to get snow today with southern Manitoba expecting the greatest amounts varying from 3 to 8 inches and local totals to 12 inches -
New
storm evolving in Iowa and moving to the western Great Lakes region will induce snow across northern and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota tonight and Friday with 3 to 8 inches and local totals over 12 inches expected -
Upper
U.S. Mississippi and Red River Basins will continue to experience worsening flood conditions due to the latest storm and the already flood conditions that have recently evolved -
U.S.
Delta will be too wet for much fieldwork for a while raising concern over corn acreage and the potential for corn acreage to move into soybeans and sorghum if the wet bias lasts much longer -
U.S.
southeastern states will trend wetter, as well during the coming week slowing or delaying fieldwork -
Cold
temperatures in the north half of the U.S. Plains and Midwest this weekend will not induce any serious harm to winter crops and most early emerging summer crops may not be seriously impacted -
However,
some of the early emerged corn fields may not perform well for a while due to cool temperatures that will dominate the next couple of weeks -
California
and the southwestern desert region will be dry and warm for an extended period of time -
Brief
periods of rain and mountain snow will impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest during the coming week followed by drier biased weather in the last week of this month -
U.S.
temperatures will be colder than usual over a bit part of the nation during this first week of the outlook and then the cooler bias will shift to the east allowing the western states to trend warmer -
Early
May temperatures are advertised to be much closer to normal -
Drought
will continue in the southwestern Canadian Prairies, although a few brief bouts of very light precipitation are expected -
Mato
Grosso, Brazil is experiencing lighter moisture in its topsoil and timely rain will be very important for its Safrinha corn and cotton development -
The
state is not facing any kind of a moisture crisis for the next few weeks, but timely rainfall must occur routinely to conserve subsoil moisture for use later in the dry season -
Rain
is expected as scattered showers and thunderstorms in the next week with some of the moisture expected to raise topsoil moisture -
Mato
Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana are quite wet and will see some net drying in the coming week to ten days -
Some
of the very latest Safrinha corn is planted in these states and the wet field conditions at the end of the rainy season is exactly what is needed to support the late season crops well into May -
Timely
rainfall will be needed in the May and June, though, to ensure the best production
-
Argentina
crop weather will be favorable for late season summer crops and their maturation and harvest -
Northern
Kazakhstan and western portions of the eastern Russia New Lands are expecting drier and warmer biased weather beginning next week and lasting for a week to perhaps ten days -
The
drying bias will firm the soil and warm it in support of spring planting -
Timely
rain will become imperative for crops once they are planted due to lower soil moisture that is expected to be prevailing at that time -
Spain,
Portugal and North Africa crop areas will experience a few showers during the next two weeks, but no general soaking and drought will continue to raise concern over production potentials for winter crops -
Unirrigated
spring and summer crops might also be negatively impacted -
Water
supply in parts of Spain may be below normal -
Most
other areas in Europe and the western CIS are experiencing favorable crop weather with little change likely for a while -
Temperatures
will continue near to above normal in southwestern areas over the next ten days while readings in the central and north trend cooler than usual -
India’s
weather will be cooler biased during the next two weeks -
Showers
that occur in this first week of the outlook will not have much impact on crops
-
The
exception will be from Uttarakhand to Jammu and Kashmir where rainfall will be more generalized and threatening to mature wheat and other winter crops -
GFS
model has suggested greater than usual rainfall in much of India after April 25 that might threaten other winter crops -
Confidence
is low -
Excessive
soil moisture and some flooding evolved recently near and south of the Yangtze River and additional precipitation is forthcoming -
Damage
may have occurred to some rapeseed, rice and other crops in the region, although most of the impact should have been localized -
Xinjiang,
China has turned warmer in recent days improving cotton, corn and other spring and summer crop planting conditions -
Northeast
parts of the province will see waves of rain and cooler weather over the next two weeks while weather in western production areas are mostly dry and warm, although not quite as warm as usual -
Yunnan,
China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops -
The
province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought -
Dryness
will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops -
Ontario
and Quebec, Canada soil temperatures have warmed in favor or new wheat development, but cooling is expected in the coming week to ten days that will shut down new crop development and lower soil temperatures -
Argentina
precipitation during the seven days will continue restricted which will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting, but a boost in rain will be needed prior autumn wheat and barley planting in June -
Some
rain is expected next week, but the impact on harvesting will be low -
Weekend
precipitation was minimal and temperatures were mild -
Middle
East rainfall is expected most often in Turkey while most other areas receive only infrequent showers
-
Cotton
and rice planting have benefitted from recent rain -
Winter
crops will fill favorably, but drier weather may soon be needed to protect grain quality -
Australia
precipitation has been limited recently, but rain will evolve next week to moisten the topsoil once again and allow better planting and emergence conditions.
-
Favorable
summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected in the east-central parts of the nation
-
Western
Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next ten days to two weeks, although southern areas will get a little rain early next week -
South
Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
-
Poor
pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed -
This
is impacting some early season sugarcane, rice and coffee development as well as other crops -
Thailand
is among the drier areas -
Some
improved rainfall is expected over the coming week -
Indonesia
and Malaysia weather has been lighter than usual due to the negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation, but a change is expected that will allow improving rainfall to evolve gradually
-
Cotton
areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting -
Some
rain will fall in the second week of the outlook especially in Burkina Faso -
Other
west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
-
East-central
Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops -
Mexico
remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -0.06 and it should move erratically over the next week
Source:
World Weather, INC.