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through selling today for US soybean complex and grains from the resumption in Black Sea grain export inspections. WTI crude oil was down $1.87, USD was 15 points lower, and US equities lower. Parts of the dry areas of US HRW wheat country will see rain over
the next five days.


estimates as of April 20








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Red River of the North at Fargo


Weather Inc.


  • U.S.
    hard red winter wheat production areas will see three waves of precipitation during the next ten days, but drought busting rain in the west is not very likely
    • The
      southwestern Plains will continue driest over the forecast period
    • Central
      and eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma will be wettest
    • All
      of the moisture will be welcome, but the west will need much more – especially in the southwest
    • ECMWF
      forecast was too wet in the central Plains overnight
      • Model
        adjustments are expected over the next few days that will lighten up some of the predicted rain
  • West
    Texas drought is not likely to get much relief in the next ten days, although a few showers are expected as the central and southeastern Plains are impacted by three separate events
    • Rolling
      Plains rainfall will be great enough to improve topsoil moisture in support of spring planting
    • Low
      Plains shower activity will be restricted, but some rain will be possible
    • High
      Plains area of West Texas will be driest, but a few showers cannot be ruled out periodically
  • Snowstorm
    in eastern Canada’s Prairies has left behind 3 to 8 inches of snow in general – so far – with the Weyburn area of southeastern Saskatchewan reporting up to 16 inches
    • Most
      of the snow has been in western Manitoba and the eastern two-thirds of Saskatchewan
    • Considerable
      blowing and drifting of snow has occurred and there have been reports of some snow melt relatively quickly after falling especially in Manitoba where the ground was warmer
    • Moisture
      totals so far have varied up to 0.68 inch
    • Eastern
      Manitoba was snow free this morning
    • Very
      light snow fell in southern Alberta, but the change in soil moisture was minimal
  • Canada’s
    eastern Prairies will continue to get snow today with southern Manitoba expecting the greatest amounts varying from 3 to 8 inches and local totals to 12 inches
  • New
    storm evolving in Iowa and moving to the western Great Lakes region will induce snow across northern and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota tonight and Friday with 3 to 8 inches and local totals over 12 inches expected
  • Upper
    U.S. Mississippi and Red River Basins will continue to experience worsening flood conditions due to the latest storm and the already flood conditions that have recently evolved
  • U.S.
    Delta will be too wet for much fieldwork for a while raising concern over corn acreage and the potential for corn acreage to move into soybeans and sorghum if the wet bias lasts much longer
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will trend wetter, as well during the coming week slowing or delaying fieldwork
  • Cold
    temperatures in the north half of the U.S. Plains and Midwest this weekend will not induce any serious harm to winter crops and most early emerging summer crops may not be seriously impacted
    • However,
      some of the early emerged corn fields may not perform well for a while due to cool temperatures that will dominate the next couple of weeks
  • California
    and the southwestern desert region will be dry and warm for an extended period of time
  • Brief
    periods of rain and mountain snow will impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest during the coming week followed by drier biased weather in the last week of this month
  • U.S.
    temperatures will be colder than usual over a bit part of the nation during this first week of the outlook and then the cooler bias will shift to the east allowing the western states to trend warmer
    • Early
      May temperatures are advertised to be much closer to normal
  • Drought
    will continue in the southwestern Canadian Prairies, although a few brief bouts of very light precipitation are expected
  • Mato
    Grosso, Brazil is experiencing lighter moisture in its topsoil and timely rain will be very important for its Safrinha corn and cotton development
    • The
      state is not facing any kind of a moisture crisis for the next few weeks, but timely rainfall must occur routinely to conserve subsoil moisture for use later in the dry season
    • Rain
      is expected as scattered showers and thunderstorms in the next week with some of the moisture expected to raise topsoil moisture
  • Mato
    Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana are quite wet and will see some net drying in the coming week to ten days
    • Some
      of the very latest Safrinha corn is planted in these states and the wet field conditions at the end of the rainy season is exactly what is needed to support the late season crops well into May
      • Timely
        rainfall will be needed in the May and June, though, to ensure the best production
  • Argentina
    crop weather will be favorable for late season summer crops and their maturation and harvest
  • Northern
    Kazakhstan and western portions of the eastern Russia New Lands are expecting drier and warmer biased weather beginning next week and lasting for a week to perhaps ten days
    • The
      drying bias will firm the soil and warm it in support of spring planting
    • Timely
      rain will become imperative for crops once they are planted due to lower soil moisture that is expected to be prevailing at that time
  • Spain,
    Portugal and North Africa crop areas will experience a few showers during the next two weeks, but no general soaking and drought will continue to raise concern over production potentials for winter crops
    • Unirrigated
      spring and summer crops might also be negatively impacted
    • Water
      supply in parts of Spain may be below normal
  • Most
    other areas in Europe and the western CIS are experiencing favorable crop weather with little change likely for a while
    • Temperatures
      will continue near to above normal in southwestern areas over the next ten days while readings in the central and north trend cooler than usual
  • India’s
    weather will be cooler biased during the next two weeks
    • Showers
      that occur in this first week of the outlook will not have much impact on crops
      • The
        exception will be from Uttarakhand to Jammu and Kashmir where rainfall will be more generalized and threatening to mature wheat and other winter crops
  • GFS
    model has suggested greater than usual rainfall in much of India after April 25 that might threaten other winter crops
    • Confidence
      is low
  • Excessive
    soil moisture and some flooding evolved recently near and south of the Yangtze River  and additional precipitation is forthcoming
    • Damage
      may have occurred to some rapeseed, rice and other crops in the region, although most of the impact should have been localized
  • Xinjiang,
    China has turned warmer in recent days improving cotton, corn and other spring and summer crop planting conditions
    • Northeast
      parts of the province will see waves of rain and cooler weather over the next two weeks while weather in western production areas are mostly dry and warm, although not quite as warm as usual
  • Yunnan,
    China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops
    • The
      province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought
    • Dryness
      will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada soil temperatures have warmed in favor or new wheat development, but cooling is expected in the coming week to ten days that will shut down new crop development and lower soil temperatures
  • Argentina
    precipitation during the seven days will continue restricted which will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting, but a boost in rain will be needed prior autumn wheat and barley planting in June
    • Some
      rain is expected next week, but the impact on harvesting will be low
    • Weekend
      precipitation was minimal and temperatures were mild
  • Middle
    East rainfall is expected most often in Turkey while most other areas receive only infrequent showers
    • Cotton
      and rice planting have benefitted from recent rain
    • Winter
      crops will fill favorably, but drier weather may soon be needed to protect grain quality
  • Australia
    precipitation has been limited recently, but rain will evolve next week to moisten the topsoil once again and allow better planting and emergence conditions.
    • Favorable
      summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected in the east-central parts of the nation
    • Western
      Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next ten days to two weeks, although southern areas will get a little rain early next week
  • South
    Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
    • Poor
      pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed
      • This
        is impacting some early season sugarcane, rice and coffee development as well as other crops
      • Thailand
        is among the drier areas
    • Some
      improved rainfall is expected over the coming week
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia weather has been lighter than usual due to the negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation, but a change is expected that will allow improving rainfall to evolve gradually
  • Cotton
    areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting
    • Some
      rain will fall in the second week of the outlook especially in Burkina Faso
    • Other
      west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
  • East-central
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Mexico
    remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -0.06 and it should move erratically over the next week

World Weather, INC.