PDF Attached
WTI
crude oil lower was lower by $1.93 and USD higher by 19 points late afternoon. A resumption in Black Sea grain export inspections, wetter forecast for Brazil second corn crop, higher USD and widespread commodity selling sent CBOT grains lower. The soybean
complex was also lower led by products amid demand destruction from high prices.
World
Weather Inc.
-
Excessive
snow will impact the southeastern half of Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, Canada over the next two days with Thursday and Friday bringing similar conditions to the northern half to two-thirds of Minnesota -
Snowfall
of 6 to 15 inches and local totals to 20 inches will be possible in both areas with a rising concern for blizzard conditions in northern Minnesota for a little while late this week -
Moisture
content in the greatest snowfall areas will vary from 0.50 to 1.50 inches with a few amounts to 2.00 inches -
Runoff
from the melting snow will enhance Red River flooding expectations in southeastern Manitoba, Canada most significantly in May while it will also add to the runoff for both the upper U.S. Red River and upper Mississippi River flooding that is already under
way -
Travel
delays and livestock stress are expected throughout the impacted areas -
Cold
air in the U.S. northern and central Plains and Midwest this weekend into Monday is unlikely to seriously damage wheat and some early emerged corn and a few soybean fields may experience some negative impact -
A
second wave of cold air is being advertised for the last days in April which may prolong the cold and moist field conditions in the Midwest resulting in poorly performing early planted corn
-
Warming
will occur between the two coldest periods, but it may not last long enough to change soil temperatures very well -
Warming
is expected to be more significant in May -
West-central
and southwestern U.S. Plains including wheat, cotton, sorghum and corn production areas will get a few showers in the coming two weeks, but no serious relief from dryness is anticipated -
Rain
will increase next week and into early May in waves from central and eastern Texas to parts of Iowa, eastern Nebraska and Illinois resulting in wetter biased conditions and some slow spring planting conditions
-
The
moisture increases in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will be very helpful for spring planting, although those areas will likely dry down again later this spring and especially this summer -
U.S.
Delta will become too wet again with additional rain expected later this week and a couple of new waves of rain next week -
The
rain may further delay spring planting in portions of the region -
U.S.
southeastern states will experience a favorable mix of weather over the next two weeks -
California
and the southwestern desert region will be dry with rising temperatures in the desert areas -
Brief
periods of rain and mountain snow will impact the U.S. Pacific Northwest during the coming week followed by drier biased weather in the last week of this month -
U.S.
temperatures will be colder than usual in the north-central, interior western and most Midwestern crop areas during the next few days with the cool conditions lasting ten days for some areas -
Drought
will continue in the
southwestern Canadian Prairies, although the snow noted above will provide a little topsoil moisture for a brief period of time -
Mato
Grosso, Brazil is experiencing lighter moisture in its topsoil and timely rain will be very important for its Safrinha corn and cotton development -
The
state is not facing any kind of a moisture crisis for the next few weeks, but timely rainfall must occur routinely to conserve subsoil moisture for use later in the dry season -
Mato
Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Parana are quite wet and will see some net drying in the coming week to ten days -
Some
of the very latest Safrinha corn is planted in these states and the wet field conditions at the end of the rainy season is exactly what is needed to support the late season crops well into May -
Timely
rainfall will be needed in the May and June, though, to ensure the best production
-
Argentina
crop weather will be favorable for late season summer crops and their maturation and harvest -
Northern
Kazakhstan and western portions of the eastern Russia New Lands are expecting drier and warmer biased weather beginning next week and lasting for a week to perhaps ten days -
The
drying bias will firm the soil and warm it in support of spring planting -
Timely
rain will become imperative for crops once they are planted due to lower soil moisture that is expected to be prevailing at that time -
Spain,
Portugal and North Africa crop areas will experience a few showers during the next two weeks, but no general soaking and drought will continue to raise concern over production potentials for winter crops -
Unirrigated
spring and summer crops might also be negatively impacted -
Water
supply in parts of Spain may be below normal -
Most
other areas in Europe and the western CIS are experiencing favorable crop weather with little change likely for a while -
Temperatures
will continue near to above normal in southwestern areas over the next ten days while readings in the central and north trend cooler than usual -
India’s
weather will be cooler biased during the next two weeks -
Showers
that occur in this first week of the outlook will not have much impact on crops
-
The
exception will be from Uttarakhand to Jammu and Kashmir where rainfall will be more generalized and threatening to mature wheat and other winter crops -
GFS
model has suggested greater than usual rainfall in much of India after April 25 that might threaten other winter crops -
Confidence
is low -
Excessive
rain and flooding evolved near and south of the Yangtze River Tuesday and earlier today -
Damage
may have occurred to some rapeseed, rice and other crops in the region, although most of the impact should have been localized -
Additional
rain will fall near and south of China’s Yangtze River for the next ten days resulting in additional bouts of flooding and some crop condition concern -
Xinjiang,
China has turned warmer in recent days improving cotton, corn and other spring and summer crop planting conditions -
Northeast
parts of the province will see waves of rain and cooler weather over the next two weeks while weather in western production areas are mostly dry and warm, although not quite as warm as usual -
Yunnan,
China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops -
The
province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought -
Dryness
will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops -
Ontario
and Quebec, Canada soil temperatures have warmed in favor or new wheat development, but cooling is expected in the coming week to ten days that will shut down new crop development and lower soil temperatures -
Argentina
precipitation during the seven days will continue restricted which will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting, but a boost in rain will be needed prior autumn wheat and barley planting in June -
Some
rain is expected next week, but the impact on harvesting will be low -
Weekend
precipitation was minimal and temperatures were mild -
Middle
East rainfall is expected most often in Turkey while most other areas receive only infrequent showers
-
Cotton
and rice planting have benefitted from recent rain -
Winter
crops will fill favorably, but drier weather may soon be needed to protect grain quality -
Australia
precipitation will be minimal over the next week allowing some early season planting of canola, wheat and barley to begin -
Favorable
summer crop maturation and harvest progress is expected -
Rain
will develop in Victoria and neighboring areas late next week -
Western
Australia is the state to watch for possible drying in the next ten days to two weeks -
South
Africa precipitation should be restricted for a while favoring summer crop maturation and harvest progress -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
-
Poor
pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed -
This
is impacting some early season sugarcane, rice and coffee development as well as other crops -
Thailand
is among the drier areas -
Indonesia
and Malaysia weather has been lighter than usual due to the negative phase of Madden Julian Oscillation and this will continue through the coming week
-
Totally
dry weather is not expected, but rainfall may be lighter and more sporadic than usual -
Cotton
areas from Mali to Burkina Faso have not seen a normal start to the rainy season this year; rain is needed to support planting -
Other
west-central Africa coffee and cocoa production areas will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms
-
East-central
Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops -
Mexico
remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -0.05 and it should move erratically over the next week
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Bloomberg
Ag calendar
Wednesday,
April 19:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - Brazil’s
Conab releases cane, sugar and ethanol output data - USDA
total milk production, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia, Bangladesh
Thursday,
April 20:
- China’s
3rd batch of March trade data, including country breakdowns for commodities - Malaysia’s
April 1-20 palm oil export data - Cocoa
Association of Asia grinding data for first quarter - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - USDA
red meat production, 3pm - HOLIDAY:
Indonesia
Friday,
April 21:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report