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steady to 4 lower. US soybean planting progress off to a great start

meal steady to $1.00 lower

oil steady

steady to 2 higher. US plantings fell short of expectations

steady. US WW conditions were unchanged







higher trade in all major CBOT agriculture commodities exception nearby rice where profit taking set in. Traders are noting the 6-10 US temperature outlook that calls for very cold temperatures for the Midwest and greater extent upper central US, after a week
of unusual warm temperatures that boosted crop development. Damage to the winter wheat could be minor, but the trade will not know the extent until later in the crop season. NOPA’s soybean crush report came in above trade expectations for soybean and soybean
oil use. Corn ended higher from Black Sea shipping uncertainty and good USDA export inspections.


estimates as of April 17









Description automatically generated


Weather Inc.


  • The
    biggest issues on traders’ minds may be the pending cold in the U.S. northern and central Plains and Midwest during the coming weekend and early part of next week
    • Concern
      over U.S. hard red winter wheat dry areas will prevail, although the outlook is trending wetter for the second half of next week into the following weekend when the cold weather abates
  • Worry
    over North Africa and Spain weather will continue
  • Canada’s
    southwestern Prairies will remain dry, but a big snowstorm is expected in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Tuesday through Thursday producing heavy snow, closing roadways and inducing a higher risk of more serious flooding on the Red River in southern Manitoba
    in May.
  • Red
    River Basin of the North will continue flooding this week, but the outlook is not nearly as bad as feared – so far
  • Argentina
    is still advertised to be drier biased over the next couple of weeks
  • Southern
    Brazil rain will continue into mid-week and then seasonal rains will diminish greatly in key agricultural areas
  • Australia’s
    outlook is drier this week after recent rain



  • Cold
    weather is still advertised for the central United States next weekend
    • Details
      of the cold surge will come into better focus later this week
      • Preliminary
        expectations suggest frost and freezes will occur southward through Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with frost and a few light freezes in northern Oklahoma, Northern Arkansas and Kentucky
    • Another
      surge of cool air may impact the eastern U.S. early next week, but confidence is low in that part of the forecast
    • Damage
      to winter wheat will be determined by development stage, location and the intensity of the cold expected
      • USDA’s
        latest crop progress will be released Monday afternoon
  • Watch
    the southern and central U.S. Plains after the cold abates next week for the “potential” for rain; conditions could become more supportive of rain briefly as the cold abates from the region
    • Confidence
      is still low, but the “opportunity” for rain could improve at that time
  • Northern
    U.S. Midwest precipitation events will be sufficient to provide adequate to excessive soil moisture over the next two weeks limiting field progress
    • The
      cool weather will contribute to the delay in farming activity
    • The
      lower Midwest is not likely to see nearly as much moisture as the north allowing some fieldwork to advance, although some producers will be worried about the cool weather coming up and may opt to wait on the return of warmer weather before planting
  • U.S.
    Delta and southeastern states will see a new bout of rain late this week into early next week when cold air is overspreading the Midwest
    • Net
      drying is expected until then
  • U.S.
    west-central high Plains region may receive rain and snow briefly as colder air overspreads the region late this week and more likely during the weekend
  • California
    and the southwestern desert region will be dry biased for the next ten days
  • Flooding
    in the Red River Basin will steadily become more significant this week, but the flood may not be as severe as it has been in the past due to returning colder temperatures and limited precipitation
  • U.S.
    weekend precipitation was greatest in the western Corn Belt from Illinois to Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri
    • Moisture
      totals varied from 0.30 to 1.30 inches with local totals to 1.81 inches near St. Louis, MO and in southwestern Iowa
    • Up
      to 3-8 inches of snow accumulated in central and eastern Minnesota while up to 22 inches occurred in Wisconsin
      • This
        was more than expected and adds to the runoff for the upper Mississippi River Basin
    • Showers
      scattered erratically in the Delta and southeastern states
      • Interior
        eastern North Carolina, the western Delta and areas along the central Gulf of Mexico coast were wettest with 1.00 to 2.35 inches resulting
    • Central
      Plains weekend precipitation varied from 0.05 to 0.20 inch except in eastern wheat areas of Kansas where up to 0.86 inch resulted
  • Canada’s
    Prairies will receive more snow and rain this week as cold air returns to the region
    • Snowfall
      of 6-15 inches will impact eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba while 1 to 6 inches occurs in other parts of Saskatchewan
    • The
      moisture will be greatest in the east and lightest in the southwestern Prairies
      • The
        moisture will add to spring planting delays along with the cold temperatures
      • Continued
        dryness in southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan will remain a big concern through May unless something changes soon.
  • Ontario
    and Quebec, Canada heated up during the weekend while experiencing dry weather
    • Highest
      temperatures reached into the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit
  • U.S.
    temperatures will turn much warmer in the central states during mid-week this week and in the eastern states late this week ahead of much colder air late this week and during the weekend in the central states and in the eastern states during the late weekend
    and early part of next week.
  • Argentina
    precipitation during the seven days will continue restricted which will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting, but a boost in rain will be needed prior autumn wheat and barley planting in June
    • Some
      rain is expected next week, but the impact on harvesting will be low
    • Weekend
      precipitation was minimal, and temperatures were mild
  • Brazil
    weekend precipitation was greatest in parts of Mato Grosso and from Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo to Paraguay  and northern Rio Grande do Sul
    • Rainfall
      of 0.20 to 1.00 inch occurred most often with locally more in Espirito Santo and northern Rio de Janeiro
  • Brazil’s
    summer monsoon is winding down, but some rainfall is expected erratically over the next two weeks some of which will be from mid-latitude frontal systems and not due to the withdrawing monsoon
    • Rainfall
      will be greatest from Mato Grosso do Sul to Parana and Sao Paulo through mid-week this week in association with a cool front
    • Net
      drying will occur farther to the north and in Rio Grande do Sul
  • Southwestern
    Europe is still not likely to get much precipitation during the next ten days
    • A
      few showers will occur, but resulting precipitation will not be enough to counter evaporation
    • Rain
      is expected in most other areas periodically
  • Europe
    precipitation during the weekend fell beneficially from the U.K. and France to Belarus and portions of Ukraine as well as the Balkan Countries
    • The
      moisture helped maintain a favorable soil moisture profile for many areas
    • Rain
      is still needed in the lower Danube River Basin and in Spain and Portugal
    • Temperatures
      were mild
  • Europe
    temperatures will continue near to above normal through the next ten days with southwestern areas driest and warmest
  • CIS
    precipitation during the weekend was greatest from Ukraine and parts of Belarus through Russia’s Southern Region to parts of Kazakhstan favoring spring crop planting and winter crop development
  • CIS
    precipitation in the coming week to ten days will be greatest from Belarus and the Baltic States through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region maintaining moisture abundance
    • Temperatures
      will be seasonable
    • Spring
      planting may be delayed at times, but winter crop development should be normal
  • Western
    and northern Russia precipitation will be light during the next ten days, but soil moisture will remain favorable
  • India
    precipitation over the next two weeks is expected to be typical of this time of year with periodic, pre-monsoonal, precipitation expected in the central, west, south and east while some unusually great rain falls from Uttarakhand to Jammu and Kashmir
  • China
    weather over the next two weeks will include;
    • Frequent
      rain in the Yangtze River Basin and areas south to the coast
      • Some
        rapeseed areas may become a little too wet
    • Erratic
      precipitation in the North China Plain, Yellow River Basin and northeastern provinces through mid-week and then rain will develop in the Yellow River Basin late this week
      • Winter
        wheat and early spring planting will benefit from northern China rainfall
  • Xinjiang,
    China will experience brief periods of light rain and cool air in the northeast through the next two weeks
    • Cotton
      and corn planting has begun, but mostly in western production areas where it has been warmest
    • Northeastern
      Xinjiang continues to experience bouts of cold and some additional frost and freezes are expected this week
    • Western
      Xinjiang will experience the best planting conditions, but temperatures will still be milder than usual
  • Yunnan,
    China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops
    • The
      province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought
    • Dryness
      will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops
  • Middle
    East rainfall is expected from Turkey to Iran this week and will be great for winter and spring crops
    • Cotton
      and rice planting will benefit after the rain passes
    • Winter
      crops will fill favorably, but drier weather may soon be needed to protect grain quality