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US
soybean stocks 210 vs. 210 last month (0), 12 million vs. trade
US
corn stocks 1342 vs. 1342 last month (0), 23 million vs. trade
US
wheat stocks 598 vs. 568 last month (30), 24 million vs. trade
WLD
soy stocks 100.3 vs. 100.0 last month (0.3), 1.7 million vs. trade
WLD
corn stocks 295.4 vs. 296.5 last month (-1.1), 0.3 million vs. trade
WLD
wheat stocks 265.1 vs. 267.2 last month (-2.1), -2.0 million vs. trade
Brazil
Soy 154.0 vs. 153.0 last month (1), 0.3 million vs. trade
Arg.
Soy 27.0 vs. 33.0 last month (-6), -2.3 million vs. trade
Brazil
Corn 125.0 vs. 125.0 last month (0), -1.1 million vs. trade
Arg.
Corn 37.0 vs. 40.0 last month (-3), -0.1 million vs. trade
USDA
made some unexpected changes to the global balance sheets. One of the biggest surprises was a 6-million-ton downgrade to Argentina soybean production to 27 million tons, 2.3 million below an average trade guess (Arg BA Grains Exchange is at 27MMT). We think
USDA has one more good round for lowering Argentina soybean production. A month from now Argentina’s soybean crop should be mostly harvested, and the trade may have a better handle on output. Brazil soybean production was raised 1 million tons to a record
154.0 million. USDA lowered China’s 2022-23 soybean crush by 1 million tons to 91 million but left imports unchanged at 96 million tons (91.57 MMT year earlier). World soybean production was lowered 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million, but stocks increased 0.3
million ton100.3 million, 0.6 percent above 2021-22. The world carryout was seen as bearish for soybean futures.
USDA
lowered world corn production by 3 million tons to 1.145 billion, 6 percent below 2021-22. World corn stocks fell 1.1 million to 295.4 million, nearly a 4 percent decrease from year ago. Argentina corn production was lowered 3.0 million tons to 37.0 million.
Brazil corn was left unchanged at 125.0 million. We think there could be some downside for the Argentina corn crop next month and upside for Brazil. All wheat global production was lowered 0.1 million tons and stocks decreased 2.1 million tons to 265.1 million
(down 2.6% from 2021-22). China wheat imports were raised 2.0 million tons to 12 million, a 25 percent increase from 2021-22. USDA increased Ukraine wheat exports by 1 million tons to 14.5 million tons, down from 18.84 million year earlier.
World
Weather Inc.
-
Not
many changes occurred overnight -
Spain,
Portugal and North Africa remain drier biased with little opportunity for change in the next ten days -
U.S.
west-central and southwestern Plains; including key wheat producing areas as well as some important corn, sorghum and cotton production areas need significant rain -
California
and the southwestern desert region cotton areas will be left dry for the next ten days -
Aggressive
snowmelt is impacting the upper Midwest and northeastern U.S. Plains today and Wednesday with a notable reduction in snowpack expected -
Melting
rain will slow later this week, but a rain and snow event expected Thursday night and Friday will aggravate the runoff and developing flood problem -
Southwestern
through central parts of Canada’s Prairies will receive very little precipitation in the next ten days -
Snow
in western and northern Alberta, Canada today and early Wednesday will add to the runoff from melting snow
-
Southeastern
Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will receive snow and rain late this week that will add to runoff from melting snow and complicate the anticipated flood coming to the Red River Basin -
U.S.
Delta weather is improving after rain fell abundant in the south last weekend -
U.S.
southeastern states will receive rain again late this week and again during the weekend to maintain slow field progress because of wet conditions -
Argentina’s
central and southern crop areas will not receive much significant precipitation for a while supporting good summer crop maturation and harvest progress -
Recent
rain in Brazil should be improving topsoil moisture after drying down earlier this month and in late March -
Safrinha
corn and cotton in Brazil are rated favorably and the outlook through much of this month is favorable -
Some
sugarcane and coffee areas in Brazil are expected to be a little too wet in the next ten days and some drying might be welcome -
Europe
soil moisture and crop conditions outside of the southwest will remain favorable over the next couple of weeks -
Rain
from Belarus and Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region during the next ten days will be ideal for promoting winter crop development -
Spring
planting is expected to advance slowly because of rain -
Western
Russia crop conditions are improving with drier weather after too much precipitation fell earlier this season while snow was melting aggressively.
-
India
crop weather should be mostly good during the next ten days -
Warm
temperatures and restricted rainfall will promote winter crop maturation and some early harvesting -
Showers
in Maharashtra will be welcome, but not likely to change sugarcane conditions much -
China
weather is nearly ideal for winter crop development (wheat and rapeseed) and the outlook remains favorable -
Spring
planting should be advancing well with little change likely. -
Yunnan,
China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops -
The
province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought -
Dryness
will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops -
Southern
Australia pre-planting weather is mostly good for wheat, barley and canola -
Eastern
Australia summer crop maturation and harvest weather has been and will continue to be favorable -
South
Africa late season summer crop maturation and harvest weather is very good with little change likely -
Middle
East rainfall will be greatest from eastern Turkey into Iraq and western Iran -
The
moisture will be good for cotton and rice planting as well as other crops -
Some
wheat will still benefit from the moisture, but it is getting a little late for a big improvement -
Mainland
areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
-
Poor
pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed -
West-central
Africa rainfall has been very good this season in coffee and cocoa production areas as well as some rice and sugarcane areas -
There
is need for greater rain in cotton areas where planting normally occurs from now through June -
Eastern
Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops -
Mexico
remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain -
A
tropical disturbance east southeast of the Philippines will be closely monitored for possible influence on the archipelago later this week -
Some
intensification and organizing is expected though the system is unlikely to become a very significant tropical cyclone -
The
system will impact Samar and Luzon Islands during mid- to late-week this week with some very heavy rain and gusty surface wind
-
Flooding
is possible as well -
Tropical
cyclone 18S was 205 miles northwest of Australia’s Northern Territory Coast this morning -
The
system will intensify today and Wednesday before moving inland over the central North coast of Western Australia Thursday -
The
storm may become quite intense today and Wednesday with landfall expected well east of Port Hedland Wednesday Night or early Thursday -
The
system needs to be closely monitored for possible impact on Port Hedland -
Indonesia
and Malaysia rain intensity is expected to lighten up over time -
Central
Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected -
Today’s
Southern Oscillation Index was -1.04 and it should move erratically over the next several days
Source:
World Weather, INC.
Bloomberg
Ag calendar
Wednesday,
April 12:
- EIA
weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am - France
agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates
Thursday,
April 13:
- China’s
1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports - USDA
weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am - Brazil’s
CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans - FranceAgriMer
monthly grains balance sheet - Port
of Rouen data on French grain exports - HOLIDAY:
Thailand
Friday,
April 14:
- ICE
Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report - CFTC
commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm - FranceAgriMer’s
weekly crop condition report - HOLIDAY:
India, Thailand
Source:
Bloomberg and FI
Soybean
and Corn Advisory
2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 153.0 Million
2022/23
Brazil Corn Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 123.0 Million
2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 26.0 Million Tons