FI Evening Grain Comments 04/11/23

Apr 11, 2023







PDF Attached

 

USDA
report day

 

US
soybean stocks 210 vs. 210 last month (0),  12 million vs. trade

US
corn stocks 1342 vs. 1342 last month (0),  23 million vs. trade

US
wheat stocks 598 vs. 568 last month (30),  24 million vs. trade

 

WLD
soy stocks 100.3 vs. 100.0 last month (0.3),  1.7 million vs. trade

WLD
corn stocks 295.4 vs. 296.5 last month (-1.1),  0.3 million vs. trade

WLD
wheat stocks 265.1 vs. 267.2 last month (-2.1),  -2.0 million vs. trade

 

Brazil
Soy 154.0 vs. 153.0 last month (1),  0.3 million vs. trade

Arg.
Soy 27.0 vs. 33.0 last month (-6),  -2.3 million vs. trade

Brazil
Corn 125.0 vs. 125.0 last month (0),  -1.1 million vs. trade

Arg.
Corn 37.0 vs. 40.0 last month (-3),  -0.1 million vs. trade

 

USDA
surprised the trade by leaving US ending stocks unchanged for corn and soybeans, then raising all-wheat ending stocks by 30 million bushels. They left the residual categories unchanged for corn and soybeans. The trade in large part was looking for an adjustment
to the corn and soybean feed categories based on March 31 stocks. The 2022-23 US soybean and soybean oil balances were unchanged from March. For US meal, USDA lowered 2022-23 production by 50,000 short tons and raised imports by the same amount. For US corn,
imports were lowered 10 million bushels and FSI decreased by 10 million. USDA left US corn exports unchanged at 1.850 billion. US ending stocks for all-wheat of 598 million are down from 698 million for 2021-22, but large in retrospect. USDA took all-wheat
imports up 5 million and lowered feed use by 25 million. US changes for wheat by class was seen a little friendly for Chicago but touch bearish for high protein wheat. By class, hard red winter stocks fell 11 million, soft red winter was down 14 million, hard
red spring increased 31 million, and White wheat was raised 21 million. USDA also upward adjusted durum by 4 million.

 

USDA
made some unexpected changes to the global balance sheets.  One of the biggest surprises was a 6-million-ton downgrade to Argentina soybean production to 27 million tons, 2.3 million below an average trade guess (Arg BA Grains Exchange is at 27MMT). We think
USDA has one more good round for lowering Argentina soybean production. A month from now Argentina’s soybean crop should be mostly harvested, and the trade may have a better handle on output. Brazil soybean production was raised 1 million tons to a record
154.0 million. USDA lowered China’s 2022-23 soybean crush by 1 million tons to 91 million but left imports unchanged at 96 million tons (91.57 MMT year earlier). World soybean production was lowered 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million, but stocks increased 0.3
million ton100.3 million, 0.6 percent above 2021-22. The world carryout was seen as bearish for soybean futures.

 

USDA
lowered world corn production by 3 million tons to 1.145 billion, 6 percent below 2021-22. World corn stocks fell 1.1 million to 295.4 million, nearly a 4 percent decrease from year ago. Argentina corn production was lowered 3.0 million tons to 37.0 million.
Brazil corn was left unchanged at 125.0 million. We think there could be some downside for the Argentina corn crop next month and upside for Brazil. All wheat global production was lowered 0.1 million tons and stocks decreased 2.1 million tons to 265.1 million
(down 2.6% from 2021-22). China wheat imports were raised 2.0 million tons to 12 million, a 25 percent increase from 2021-22. USDA increased Ukraine wheat exports by 1 million tons to 14.5 million tons, down from 18.84 million year earlier.

 

Fund
estimates as of April 11

 

Weather

Map Description automatically generated

 

World
Weather Inc.

WEATHER
TO WATCH

  • Not
    many changes occurred overnight
  • Spain,
    Portugal and North Africa remain drier biased with little opportunity for change in the next ten days
  • U.S.
    west-central and southwestern Plains; including key wheat producing areas as well as some important corn, sorghum and cotton production areas need significant rain
  • California
    and the southwestern desert region cotton areas will be left dry for the next ten days
  • Aggressive
    snowmelt is impacting the upper Midwest and northeastern U.S. Plains today and Wednesday with a notable reduction in snowpack expected
    • Melting
      rain will slow later this week, but a rain and snow event expected Thursday night and Friday will aggravate the runoff and developing flood problem
  • Southwestern
    through central parts of Canada’s Prairies will receive very little precipitation in the next ten days
  • Snow
    in western and northern Alberta, Canada today and early Wednesday will add to the runoff from melting snow
  • Southeastern
    Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba will receive snow and rain late this week that will add to runoff from melting snow and complicate the anticipated flood coming to the Red River Basin
  • U.S.
    Delta weather is improving after rain fell abundant in the south last weekend
  • U.S.
    southeastern states will receive rain again late this week and again during the weekend to maintain slow field progress because of wet conditions
  • Argentina’s
    central and southern crop areas will not receive much significant precipitation for a while supporting good summer crop maturation and harvest progress
  • Recent
    rain in Brazil should be improving topsoil moisture after drying down earlier this month and in late March
  • Safrinha
    corn and cotton in Brazil are rated favorably and the outlook through much of this month is favorable
  • Some
    sugarcane and coffee areas in Brazil are expected to be a little too wet in the next ten days and some drying might be welcome
  • Europe
    soil moisture and crop conditions outside of the southwest will remain favorable over the next couple of weeks
  • Rain
    from Belarus and Ukraine into Russia’s Southern Region during the next ten days will be ideal for promoting winter crop development
    • Spring
      planting is expected to advance slowly because of rain
  • Western
    Russia crop conditions are improving with drier weather after too much precipitation fell earlier this season while snow was melting aggressively.
  • India
    crop weather should be mostly good during the next ten days
    • Warm
      temperatures and restricted rainfall will promote winter crop maturation and some early harvesting
    • Showers
      in Maharashtra will be welcome, but not likely to change sugarcane conditions much
  • China
    weather is nearly ideal for winter crop development (wheat and rapeseed) and the outlook remains favorable
    • Spring
      planting should be advancing well with little change likely.
  • Yunnan,
    China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops
    • The
      province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought
    • Dryness
      will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops
  • Southern
    Australia pre-planting weather is mostly good for wheat, barley and canola
  • Eastern
    Australia summer crop maturation and harvest weather has been and will continue to be favorable
  • South
    Africa late season summer crop maturation and harvest weather is very good with little change likely
  • Middle
    East rainfall will be greatest from eastern Turkey into Iraq and western Iran
    • The
      moisture will be good for cotton and rice planting as well as other crops
    • Some
      wheat will still benefit from the moisture, but it is getting a little late for a big improvement
  • Mainland
    areas of Southeast Asia are still in need of greater rain, although the situation is not critical
    • Poor
      pre-monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring in many areas and improved rainfall will soon be needed
  • West-central
    Africa rainfall has been very good this season in coffee and cocoa production areas as well as some rice and sugarcane areas
    • There
      is need for greater rain in cotton areas where planting normally occurs from now through June
  • Eastern
    Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
  • Mexico
    remains in a drought, though eastern and far southern parts of the nation will get some periodic rain
  • A
    tropical disturbance east southeast of the Philippines will be closely monitored for possible influence on the archipelago later this week
    • Some
      intensification and organizing is expected though the system is unlikely to become a very significant tropical cyclone
    • The
      system will impact Samar and Luzon Islands during mid- to late-week this week with some very heavy rain and gusty surface wind
      • Flooding
        is possible as well
  • Tropical
    cyclone 18S was 205 miles northwest of Australia’s Northern Territory Coast this morning
    • The
      system will intensify today and Wednesday before moving inland over the central North coast of Western Australia Thursday
      • The
        storm may become quite intense today and Wednesday with landfall expected well east of Port Hedland Wednesday Night or early Thursday
        • The
          system needs to be closely monitored for possible impact on Port Hedland
  • Indonesia
    and Malaysia rain intensity is expected to lighten up over time
  • Central
    Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
  • Today’s
    Southern Oscillation Index was -1.04 and it should move erratically over the next several days

Source:
World Weather, INC.

 

Bloomberg
Ag calendar

Wednesday,
April 12:

  • EIA
    weekly US ethanol inventories, production, 10:30am
  • France
    agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates

Thursday,
April 13:

  • China’s
    1st batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
  • USDA
    weekly net-export sales for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, pork and beef, 8:30am
  • Brazil’s
    CONAB publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
  • FranceAgriMer
    monthly grains balance sheet
  • Port
    of Rouen data on French grain exports
  • HOLIDAY:
    Thailand

Friday,
April 14:

  • ICE
    Futures Europe weekly commitments of traders report
  • CFTC
    commitments of traders weekly report on positions for various US futures and options, 3:30pm
  • FranceAgriMer’s
    weekly crop condition report
  • HOLIDAY:
    India, Thailand

Source:
Bloomberg and FI

 

Soybean
and Corn Advisory

2022/23
Brazil Soybean Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 153.0 Million

2022/23
Brazil Corn Estimate Increased 2.0 mt to 123.0 Million

2022/23
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 26.0 Million Tons