FI Evening Grain Comments 04/05/23

PDF Attached

USDA:
Private exporters reported the following sales activity:

-125,000
metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

-276,000
metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year

Lower
trade for the soybean complex on technical selling. Lower soybean products (oil and meal) dragged nearby CBOT crush down to contract lows. Grains were on the defensive, but corn maintained a positive trade for the back months on what appeared to be profit
taking in recent nearby bull spreads. The wheat market had lack of fresh bullish news to begin with and funds sold 4,000 contracts by the end of the day. Outside markets were mixed…

Fund
estimates as of April 5

Weather

World
Weather Inc.

MOST
IMPORTANT WEATHER OF THE DAY

• U.S.
  hard red winter wheat areas suffered from a strong drying wind Tuesday
• Peak
  wind speeds in the southwest reached 67 mph and relative humidity was 1-10% from central Kansas to western Texas
• Blowing
  dust and sand was noted in the southwestern Plains
• Afternoon
  temperatures were in the 80s and a few lower 90s Fahrenheit
• Crop
  stress was exacerbated especially in unirrigated fields
• Some
  of today’s medium range computer forecast models were suggesting rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas during the second week of the forecast
• This
  is a possibility
• World
  Weather, Inc. suggested improved rainfall from Texas to eastern Kansas in its long range outlook for both April and May with the high Plains region least likely to get drought busting rain
• Some
  of the rain advertised for late next week may have been too intense and a little too far to the west
• U.S
  Northern Plains storm Tuesday and early today was a little weaker than expected, but it still had and will have an impact on the Red River Basin flood potential
• Another
  0.05 to 0.60 inch of moisture was noted with snow accumulations of 4 to 11 inches and a local amount to 15.6 inches at Roscoe, S.D.
  
• U.S.
  Upper Midwest and northeastern Plains temperatures this weekend through all of next week will warm up significantly resulting in accelerated snow melt that will lead to significant runoff and flooding
• U.S.
  Midwest weather will improve greatly next week with less precipitation this weekend through the end of next week and much warmer temperatures
• The
  heat will accelerate drying and after a few days field conditions should become good for early season planting in the lower Midwest
• Soil
  temperatures may be a little too cool for fieldwork in the north
• Severe
  thunderstorms in the Midwest Tuesday night produced numerous reports of hail and damaging wind from eastern Kansas, and Iowa to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin
  
• A
  few tornadoes were noted as well
• Eastern
  portions of the Midwest and Delta will experience additional severe weather today and tonight before this bout of severe weather finally passes.
  
• California
  weather will be quiet biased for a while, but rain will resume for a little while in the second week of the forecast
• Mountain
  snowpack in the Rocky Mountains is near to above average in many areas
• West
  Texas cotton areas will continue dry for another full week with temperatures turning very warm once again after the next few days of cool conditions
• Rain
  chances may improve for the Rolling Plains in the second week of the outlook and there is a “chance” for some shower activity to reach into the low Plains
• U.S.
  Delta and Tennessee River Basin will get waves of rain today through Saturday resulting in farming delay
• Some
  areas in the region are already too wet
• Drying
  is expected for a while late this weekend through much of next week resulting in better field conditions eventually
• Aggressive
  planting progress should result after a few days of drying
• Rain
  will resume in the Delta around mid-month while the southeastern states continue in a net drying mode
• Southeastern
  Manitoba, Canada will get significant  snowfall today resulting in a higher level of runoff later this month when the snow melts
• The
  Red River in Canada is expected to move into flood stage in the second half of this month due to U.S. snowmelt in the upper Midwest
• Other
  Canada Prairies crop areas will get precipitation in weeks 2 and 3, although it will be light
• Concern
  about ongoing dryness will be very high for a while this spring because of drought that is prevailing in the southwestern Prairies
• China’s
  Yellow River Basin, central parts of Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain reported 1.00 to 3.00 inches of rainfall over the past three days with a few areas getting around 0.50 inch.
  
• The
  moisture has bolstered topsoil moisture for more aggressive winter wheat development and has improved spring planting potentials
• Soil
  temperatures are warm enough to plant corn and a host of other spring crops in east-central and southeastern China where fieldwork will advance around additional bouts of rain
• China’s
  Yangtze River Basin will receive waves of rain during the next ten days
• Rain
  totals of 2.00 to 6.00 inches will with more than 8.00 inches possible with most of the greatest rain expected next week
  
• India
  and Pakistan will restricted rainfall over the next two weeks
• A
  few showers will occur, but the potential impact on winter crops will be low
• Recent
  rain will support aggressive early season cotton planting
• Wheat
  will benefit greatly from the change
• Yunnan,
  China is too dry and needs moisture for early season corn and rice as well as other crops
• The
  province and neighboring areas are considered to be in a drought
• Dryness
  will continue in the province cutting into rice and corn planting and production potential as well as some other crops
• Southern
  Argentina, Uruguay and southern Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil are unlikely to receive much precipitation in the week to ten days
• The
  drier bias will support crop maturation and harvest progress
• Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms will develop in the following weekend
• Center
  south Brazil will experience increasing rainfall later this week into next week
  
• The
  moisture will help to saturate the topsoil once again in support of Safrinha and other late season crops
• A
  part of the region has been drying out recently and this will help to reverse the trend and saturate the soil again before seasonal rains end later this month
• Northern
  and central Argentina precipitation during the next ten days will be sufficient to maintain favorable late season crop development, but it may also interfere with early season summer crop maturation and harvest progress
• A
  tropical cyclone may form east southeast of the Philippines late this week and will be closely monitored for possible influence on the archipelago next week
• The
  latest computer forecast model runs keep the storm over open water well to the east of the nation through most of next week
• Another
  tropical cyclone is expected to form north of Australia and will likely make landfall along the central north coast of Western Australia during mid-week next week producing heavy rain and some flooding
• Southeast
  Asia rainfall will continue favorably distributed for the next ten days to two weeks; this is true for Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia as well as the maintain crop areas
• Mainland
  areas will not receive as much rain as usual
• March
  was notably drier biased
• Eastern
  Africa precipitation will be sufficient to support favorable coffee, cocoa and, rice and sugarcane development as well as other crops
• Turkey
  will be the wettest Middle East nation in the coming week while net drying occurs in most other areas through early next week
  
• Recent
  precipitation has been good for wheat development and rice and cotton planting
• Spain
  will continue dry biased for at least another week to ten days
• Portions
  of North Africa received rain earlier this week, but the region is expected to dry out again.
  
• Most
  of the rain fell in northeastern Algeria and far northern Tunisia where some relief to dryness resulted
• Improving
  topsoil moisture should improve crop development, but most other areas in northern Africa are still too dry and in need of rain
• Western
  Europe will be drier biased over the coming week while Eastern Europe is sufficiently wet to bolster topsoil moisture
• Southeastern
  Europe rain has brought relief to drought stricken areas in the past 24 hours and more rain is expected today
• Relief
  from drought is occurring in the lower Danube River Basin and parts of Romania
• Some
  delay to fieldwork is expected
• Western
  CIS weather will be wettest in Ukraine, southern Belarus and western parts of Russia’s Southern Region over the coming week to ten days
• Sufficient
  moisture is expected throughout the western CIS to maintain a good prospect for winter and spring crops throughout the region
• Drying
  in western Russia will be great for improving topsoil moisture for spring fieldwork – many areas are too dry
• West-central
  Africa rainfall is expected periodically in the next two weeks to support ongoing coffee, cocoa, rice and sugarcane development
• A
  boost in rainfall is needed in cotton production areas to support the best planting environment
• Central
  Asia cotton and other crop planting is under way and advancing relatively well with adequate irrigation water and some timely rainfall expected
• Limited
  rainfall in eastern Australia will be great for summer crop maturation and harvesting
• A
  boost in precipitation will be needed in southern Australia in the next few weeks to support wheat, barley and canola planting
• The
  outlook is favorable
• South
  Africa weather will be mostly good over the next two weeks with a mix of rain and sun supporting corn, sorghum, sunseed, soybeans, rice, cotton, citrus sugarcane and other crops
• Rainfall
  will be limited in this first week of the outlook and then increase this weekend and next week
• Production
  potentials are high and late summer weather is mostly very good
• Mexico
  drought will continue this month, although there will be some periodic opportunity for rain in eastern parts of the nation through much of the next ten days
• Central
  America rainfall will be greatest in Guatemala and from Costa Rica to Panama during the next ten days
• Net
  drying is likely in portions of Honduras and Nicaragua
• Southeastern
  Canada’s corn, wheat and soybean production region is favorably moist and poised for a good start to spring, although fieldwork is still a few weeks away
• Today’s
  Southern Oscillation Index was -4.08 and it was expected to move erratically over the next few days